*****New Football Thread*****

Martin

Welcome to the new football trading main thread!

Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!

Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score

My testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Richard Latimer

@Martin absolutely but then it's all about the money.

Players get paid astronomically well but the human body is only capable of so much and if we want to see them at their absolute best then it needs managing properly.

The alternative is walking wounded all stepping into next season one strain away from months on the sideline anyway.

The speed of the game and levels of fitness they need to sustain in modern football isn't sustainable unless they get proper down time. Not to mention the mental side of things.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson I'm not sure I agree. I think the lack of interest in the tournament and the fact they have struggled to sell tickets is indicative of the fact many don't care.

Let the players go on holiday and recharge. They start again in Sept.

Doesn't help they want to have these things in America all the time, sure that's where a lot of money is but Soccer as they call it is well down their list of sports.

Martin

@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:

PSG at around 6.0 looks a good price. Have a tough group but head and shoulders the best team in this if they take it seriously

Yes I agree with this, especially with Barca not in it (how are they not in it but Juve and Salzburg are?)

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson I'm not sure I agree. I think the lack of interest in the tournament and the fact they have struggled to sell tickets is indicative of the fact many don't care.

Let the players go on holiday and recharge. They start again in Sept.

Andy Donnelly

PSG at around 6.0 looks a good price. Have a tough group but head and shoulders the best team in this if they take it seriously

Akiva Anderson

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Andy-Donnelly especially with the club world cup imminent, what's everyone's thoughts on that tournament?

I know players complain about having too many matches to play, but they need to understand, that's how they get paid big wages. If they want to play less matches, then get paid less.

I actually think the prize money is superb. It probably won't be good until the knockout stages. Every club will want to win it

Martin

@Andy-Donnelly especially with the club world cup imminent, what's everyone's thoughts on that tournament?

Andy Donnelly

Probably the worst placed international break for the players. Pointless having international games at this time. Doesn’t excuse the performance from England tho

Martin

Poor stuff from England yesterday!

Akiva Anderson

Over 1.5 Goals for tonight: Estonia vs Israel

Akiva Anderson

Some great prices on International football. I enjoyed the Germany v Portugal match last night. I hope the Spain v France match will be similar.

The Under 21 tournament starts next Wednesday - always opportunities to trade on tournament football.

A few days later the Club World Championship starts too.

Akiva Anderson

@Stephen-Hancox said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson shame, he prefers to be back on £300k per week at United. Makes sense from a financial point of view but having so much money so easily has perhaps affected his ambition and drive. Likely the same with Rashford. United really do need to get their recruitment costs etc in order

I think United will do okay next season. No European distractions.

Stephen Hancox

@Akiva-Anderson shame, he prefers to be back on £300k per week at United. Makes sense from a financial point of view but having so much money so easily has perhaps affected his ambition and drive. Likely the same with Rashford. United really do need to get their recruitment costs etc in order

Akiva Anderson

Jadon Sancho - mad how far he has fallen.

Ryan

Yeh I agree, goal for me is to get to a good data set maybe by end of this month (June) or even mid July then have a real look at what’s been happening, I will probs jump on a zoom with you and we can do it together lol.

Richard Latimer

@Martin in Brazil I have such a small window where the odds seem to work but there is enough data to suggest it's not coincidence.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer interesting to note, I also find the overnight South American games aren't great

Richard Latimer

@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Ryan I think with some filtering these can be very good, there are some games like play off ones that would be automatic no trades for me, also some leagues that have been really bad (looking at you Republic of Ireland!)

@Martin no surprise on Ireland. The data on my over 1.5 system is woeful for Ireland.

Martin

@Ryan I think with some filtering these can be very good, there are some games like play off ones that would be automatic no trades for me, also some leagues that have been really bad (looking at you Republic of Ireland!)