*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Akiva-Anderson Still profitable but not going up as fast as I'd like. Would be grateful for your input on my questions re MLS this season and the pictures I have just posted?
S**t tonne of variance?
Sign of a league going bad
Sign that things may not be all well in the system itself? -
Going back to my recent problems with MLS, would this be alarming to any of you?
This
To this....
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@Akiva-Anderson My results are mixed but agree desperation plays a part.
May sound obvious but the strength of theory behind the strategy is (probably unsurprisingly) the key for me in whether something is profitable long term. What’s also important is that the theory needs to be market focused. For example a theory that manages to identify games with lots of goals isn’t good enough. Instead it’s needs to be something that can identify matches where the market over or under estimates whether there will be goals.
It’s also becoming clearer to me that you need theory first and not to retro-fit a set of data with a theory. I’ve been guilty of collecting a load of data and finding filter criteria that seems to work and then kidding myself that there is an underlying theory of why it is working. Only for a downturn to come or a level of profitability not realised long term.
Not saying anything that Ryan/Martin haven’t been saying for years but just become a lot clearer for me in recent times in a positive way.
Desperation is definitely at the root of trying to retrofit things.
Sorry for long reply
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Everyone still profitable?
I've been doing this for years now and I believe the number one reason why people are broke is not 'laziness' or 'lack of talent', but 'desperation'. They are too busy being 'desperate' for money to actually make money. 'Desperation' eats your headspace, it kills your time and floods your system with stress. In my experience 'stressed' people don't build wealth - they chase it. 'Patience' isn't passive, it is the ultimate productive tool. Calm down, think clearly and execute smart. Inner calmness is the biggest capital you can own.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin Inter Miami was one of my 0-0's
I hope it's unusual for a league to go from one of the best to one of the worst in the space of 2 seasons. If it's not then it throws almost 700 selections into at least still having large questions against them.
That's just one result though, 5 of their last 6 games have gone over 3.5 goals and last two over 4.5! (One had 8!)
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Only inplay SHG for the games that are around 8-10 pm.
Really good for SHG. Usually two or more.
You can usually lay next two goals up and win.
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@Stuart-Capstick I take it you don't really get involved in it yourself then from that?
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@Andy-Donnelly No, it started from week 5 onwards which is when I entertain a trade. Been abysmal.
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@Richard-Latimer Have you had most of your MLS losses recently? Reason for asking is they are getting close to end of regular season and not sure how much you factor in motivation as a factor on your strategy. I had a loss on the Philadelphia game the other day and was on the fence to go for it as there wasn’t much on the line. Teams could be conserving energy for the playoffs if they are already confirmed in the playoffs.
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The MLS is like the A League: predictably unpredictable, full of old stars and donkeys. The standard of both leagues is really on a par with some of Europe's second and third tier leagues. In fact, any team from Bundesliga 2 would walk either the MLS or the A League.
Throw in the huge distances some teams have to travel and you have a pretty heady mix of unforeseeable variables. -
@Stuart-Capstick Agreed. For me though, it's just a question of the games that look most likely to have goals not being consistent with what the stats say. And last season they were.
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Av goals per game 2.97
Av goals per game last season 3.11
Hardly a collapse and we haven't yet had the end of season nonsense where, as in most leagues, there is a glut of goals.
Just depends on what you are trading.
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@Shannon-Townsend Yeah, I am thinking dropping that and Mexico may be a blessing haha!
I know variance of course but a whole season's worth??! Like I say, if all the leagues were to do this I'd be screwed.
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@Richard-Latimer It looks like the average goals per game in the MLS are actually up although that stat doesnt tell the whole story as it may only be a few teams that are having crazy games with goals whilst the rest is dull... i think you have just had a bit of bad luck/varience... i like the MLS but as i have to trade out on my LTD i rarely trade it as value my sleep more
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@Martin Inter Miami was one of my 0-0's
I hope it's unusual for a league to go from one of the best to one of the worst in the space of 2 seasons. If it's not then it throws almost 700 selections into at least still having large questions against them.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer yeah defo overall goals seem down though Inter Miami games have been nuts with goals! I don't get many games crop up for me from MLS as odds are usually short
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What about you @Martin?
Overall my stats are robust but MLS has really caught me off guard.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Stuart-Capstick interesting to note. I start off looking for games where both teams have scored in at least 80% of last games. Then a bit of tweaking around the edges.
My last loss came in NY Redbulls game. Last season goals galore on these parameters. This season, terrible.
