*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Going through an LTD system I am testing and it is showing really strong for 'Both Teams To Score'. That got me thinking, we often tell traders to test other markets with their strategies and see if there may be another angle that works as well or even better, as that could be a great hidden strategy that you can discover. Has anyone got any strategies they run now, where it started as a different strategy?
We all do things in our own way (!)
Because – what works for one trader might not work for another.
In that – Ryan starts with odds and filters, searching for a path through the noise.
So that – another can take a ready-made template and extract something entirely new.
By – doodling and sketching over my mosaic paintings (spreadsheets), I start to see anomalies and hidden flows.
About – discovering the peculiar and the rare, which often hides where it’s least expected.
So that – each “painting” becomes a silent messenger, a picture that speaks when you’re ready to listen.It highlights that – a correct-score market strategy turned into both leverage and a goal-fest, a kind of push-and-pull festival.
It reinforces that – all it took was a strong strike ratio of goals averaging 2+ per match, birthing three distinct methods.The missing link that turns silver apples into golden eggs.
Because – Ryan’s Split Stake stands as a solid and time-tested method, even through my modest understanding.
In that – an 80 % strike ratio across 200+ plays is a strong signal, especially with zero complaints.
So that – just like targeting “next goal in the second half,” Ryan’s Split can be applied the same way.
By – adding a five-minute rule, letting the stake remain, allowing a 1–2 tick drift (before cashout) and when a second goal lands – a 100 % profit pot.
About – noticing the small details isn’t only about personal experience, but also about learning from others’ successes and failures.
So that – regardless of others’ skill or luck, you keep tracking those small deviations – they might hold value elsewhere.It highlights that – as we wrote in The Gift, knowledge can come from every corner, even the ones the clean-minded avoid.
It reinforces that – when we play with the market’s own money instead of our own, within structured pre-loss sequences, we’re already outside the textbooks. -
@Martin I have a back the home team which is in its early stages but already looking like it my well be a lay the home team as lots of draws and away wins meaning it is losing terribly at the minute (paper only at this stage)... need something as my LTD is doing ok but is slow and needs me to be actually trading which proves quite difficult some weeks...
quick check and from 165 selections it has made 16 pt loss backing the home team and 6pts profit by laying them... early days...
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Going through an LTD system I am testing and it is showing really strong for 'Both Teams To Score'. That got me thinking, we often tell traders to test other markets with their strategies and see if there may be another angle that works as well or even better, as that could be a great hidden strategy that you can discover. Has anyone got any strategies they run now, where it started as a different strategy?
I believe the raw data and excluded selections on my home lay may prove to be a very profitable home back system in the future.
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Going through an LTD system I am testing and it is showing really strong for 'Both Teams To Score'. That got me thinking, we often tell traders to test other markets with their strategies and see if there may be another angle that works as well or even better, as that could be a great hidden strategy that you can discover. Has anyone got any strategies they run now, where it started as a different strategy?
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@Akiva-Anderson I agree with all youve said and have made the move from desperation to patience in the time that I have been here. What I have been unable to develop is a love for the game...which I am now certain you need to be succesful in football trading. Its dead annoying tbh as there is so much football to trade! If I could find a strat that didnt require me to dig deeper into stats I dont really care about, and not have to watch even 10 minutes of a game Id be laughing
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@Akiva-Anderson This aligns with a lot of my thinking, on a few of the points.
Patience is the killer to a lot of traders, we have seen it over the years where people come in here all guns blazing and then leave, they come back 2 months later, still the same... you've got to give yourself time.
I loved Dan, who every month took a bit of his profit and took his wife out, knowing some months and this happened he could only buy her a pack of custard creams - but he got the reward for the effort and took the time to get profitable.
I also think a big part of it is belief, you have to believe you can do it, many dont really fully believe and this clouds their judgement 'It’s easier to by cynical than improve yourself - don’t be a victim, don’t give up at the first sign of failure, stop complaining about the situation and doing nothing about it.'
I think what people also need to do is look at what they are doing and be honest, was it a you mistake? Like did you overtake? Go off plan?
Was it a good trade that didnt make money? With the EV on your side etc...? Because theres a huge difference in those things.
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@Andy-Donnelly @Richard-Latimer @Martin @Ryan @Adam
In my Over 1.5 goals strategy, I certainly don't trade everything. There are obviously certain leagues I'll filter out and perhaps certain teams too. Stats will give you a snapshot, that's why I like to watch the games I trade (If I can, not always possible). I like to watch the matches to see if it is worth my investment. I trade what I'm watching and I'm often adaptable. What starts off as an Over 1.5 goals match to trade, may turn into a different trade.
The leagues I avoid are leagues that I don't watch. There are certain teams I avoid too. @Richard-Latimer you may find not dropping leagues, but dropping teams from a league more beneficial than omitting whole leagues.
This is where back testing will become valuable. I'd like to look at a team and see if I can get an edge on a market. For example,
What happens historically if Arsenal, at the Emirates, are priced between 1.25 - 1.50? What happens to the away team in a certain price range? What happens if Arsenal are priced between 1.51 - 175?
Just my random thoughts
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About 60 results in total. Nowhere near a big enough sample to say anything definitive.
Just leave the MLS until you have about 200-300 results for that league.
This may help you to see the likely variance in a small sample
https://www.calculator.net/confidence-interval-calculator.html
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@Akiva-Anderson Still profitable but not going up as fast as I'd like. Would be grateful for your input on my questions re MLS this season and the pictures I have just posted?
S**t tonne of variance?
Sign of a league going bad
Sign that things may not be all well in the system itself? -
Going back to my recent problems with MLS, would this be alarming to any of you?
This
To this....
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@Akiva-Anderson My results are mixed but agree desperation plays a part.
May sound obvious but the strength of theory behind the strategy is (probably unsurprisingly) the key for me in whether something is profitable long term. What’s also important is that the theory needs to be market focused. For example a theory that manages to identify games with lots of goals isn’t good enough. Instead it’s needs to be something that can identify matches where the market over or under estimates whether there will be goals.
It’s also becoming clearer to me that you need theory first and not to retro-fit a set of data with a theory. I’ve been guilty of collecting a load of data and finding filter criteria that seems to work and then kidding myself that there is an underlying theory of why it is working. Only for a downturn to come or a level of profitability not realised long term.
Not saying anything that Ryan/Martin haven’t been saying for years but just become a lot clearer for me in recent times in a positive way.
Desperation is definitely at the root of trying to retrofit things.
Sorry for long reply
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Everyone still profitable?
I've been doing this for years now and I believe the number one reason why people are broke is not 'laziness' or 'lack of talent', but 'desperation'. They are too busy being 'desperate' for money to actually make money. 'Desperation' eats your headspace, it kills your time and floods your system with stress. In my experience 'stressed' people don't build wealth - they chase it. 'Patience' isn't passive, it is the ultimate productive tool. Calm down, think clearly and execute smart. Inner calmness is the biggest capital you can own.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin Inter Miami was one of my 0-0's
I hope it's unusual for a league to go from one of the best to one of the worst in the space of 2 seasons. If it's not then it throws almost 700 selections into at least still having large questions against them.
That's just one result though, 5 of their last 6 games have gone over 3.5 goals and last two over 4.5! (One had 8!)
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Only inplay SHG for the games that are around 8-10 pm.
Really good for SHG. Usually two or more.
You can usually lay next two goals up and win.
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@Stuart-Capstick I take it you don't really get involved in it yourself then from that?
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@Andy-Donnelly No, it started from week 5 onwards which is when I entertain a trade. Been abysmal.
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@Richard-Latimer Have you had most of your MLS losses recently? Reason for asking is they are getting close to end of regular season and not sure how much you factor in motivation as a factor on your strategy. I had a loss on the Philadelphia game the other day and was on the fence to go for it as there wasn’t much on the line. Teams could be conserving energy for the playoffs if they are already confirmed in the playoffs.
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The MLS is like the A League: predictably unpredictable, full of old stars and donkeys. The standard of both leagues is really on a par with some of Europe's second and third tier leagues. In fact, any team from Bundesliga 2 would walk either the MLS or the A League.
Throw in the huge distances some teams have to travel and you have a pretty heady mix of unforeseeable variables.
