*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current ScoreMy testing sheet for 2025: Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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Crikey, what a roller coaster of a ride in the China Super League. Shanghai Shenhua match: THREE goals disallowed and, finally, goals came in 94' and 98'!!! Never in doubt...
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@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Craig-Greenway me too, anyone else been testing something over summer getting 5-10 selections on a weekend and now the other leagues have started is getting 100+?
Hi Martin, you've probably done a video on this but I wonder if there is a time-efficient way of 'disqualifying' many of those 100+ selections? Presumably, most of the time the reason they have come up as selections is because the stats show they are viable to trade. However, there must be a quick(ish) way of working out which ones are worth doing and which ones aren't? Obviously I have a number of leagues that I am cautious with due to strike rate but what are the other key indicators? (apologies for the rambling question and if there is a video that already nails this!). A
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@Craig-Greenway me too, anyone else been testing something over summer getting 5-10 selections on a weekend and now the other leagues have started is getting 100+?
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Looking forward to a big weekend of trades. Im currently on Pribram v Ostava b to have a fhg which has just kicked off. Home side with fhg in last 30 games.
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@Craig-Greenway said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alastair-Todd yeah was a good day yesterday. Made some decent profit. Got a nice routine now where I make sure I research all my trades thouroughly. You trading any games today?
Probably not, I've just arrived in Marrakesh so I'll probably take it easy for a few days!
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@Craig-Greenway need to look more at that Norway 2nd div!
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@Alastair-Todd yeah was a good day yesterday. Made some decent profit. Got a nice routine now where I make sure I research all my trades thouroughly. You trading any games today?
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@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Craig-Greenway said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Morning guys. Anyone trading any games today. Norwegian games on later which are great for goals.
I'm a little cautious with Norway - the D1 (OBOS ligaen) is ok (87.5% strike rate for me on O1.5) but the Eliteserien is rubbish for me (54% strike rate).
Just to say Craig, that the four matches in the Norwegian 1st division averaged 5.5 goals each today. That rather backs up what you were saying about goals!
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Unreal stats to a Fhg in the levadia u21 v flora u21 game which has just kicked off. I will be jumping on if it reaches decent odds.
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@Alastair-Todd I love all the leagues below them. Not sure with stats but fhg in them leagues are great. Usually wait for better odds than pre match.
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@Craig-Greenway said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Morning guys. Anyone trading any games today. Norwegian games on later which are great for goals.
I'm a little cautious with Norway - the D1 (OBOS ligaen) is ok (87.5% strike rate for me on O1.5) but the Eliteserien is rubbish for me (54% strike rate).
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@Craig-Greenway Nothing for me today, couple of selections on something Martin and I are working on called the gap - which we shall share all when we are confident with it.
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Morning guys. Anyone trading any games today. Norwegian games on later which are great for goals.
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@Martin Liverpool were wildly open in midfield it was terrible which then with everybody else bombing forward is wild. I know you like stats....
They faced 10 shots with a total xG of 1.7.... last season they only gave away more in 5 games, and 4 of those were after they'd already won the title.
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@Martin What I find mental is Betfair is giving 4.0 for West Ham to go down, that's a 25% chance of going down....
I think it's a lot higher than that to be honest as we know they don't have to actually go down.... just stay in the bottom 4 and have a fight and that'll come in.
Also adding into this their next 2 games are Chelsea and Nottingham Forrest....
They could be played 3 conceded 12 0 points scored 1-3.... Wouldn't look great.
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@Paul-Sheridan said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Bournemouth seem to be selling everyone this season. That's Ouattara gone now to Brentford.
mad how much money Bournemouth must have now!
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@Andy-Donnelly I think thats a great shout!!! I think they are going to have a solid season as well, they have added a few good pieces. They were also the ones I had last season as the ones to close the gap. They started strong too.
I am with you on United, although all of me wants them to finish bottom 10 again ahahah
