*****New Football Thread*****

Richard Latimer

These 2 for tomorrow:

Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8
Lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire Helps a lot; thanks. I've not come across this out-and-back-in method before, so trying to get my head round that. Let's say, for round numbers, you're staking 4 x £10. No goal at 15, so you trade out for a £4 loss (say) and put another £10 on straight away, followed by two further £10 FH drips as described. If there's a FH goal at any point, you're out of the trade for whatever green is offered (or a free bet). I see that if there's no goal, or the stats don't look good, you're taking a smaller loss but, equally, if a goal is scored (which seems to be quite a high % of the time), you're also getting a smaller green, aren't you? You alluded to time decay, so I guess that's where the logic of the system lies.

Mark Maguire

@Trevor-H not a problem ..

in terms of your questions - I enter equal amounts (1/4 of my stake) at the start, then at 15 mins, 35 mins and 45 mins (the last two depend on there being enough shots on target) I either back over 2.5 or lay under 2.5 depending on my strength of feeling about the opportunity and the risk, no exact science to this other than I won't risk more than the accepted per cent of my bank overall (2-5% max) on the trade.

When I cash out the first part its a case of just taking the red. I have analysed goal times for the last three years and across the filters get about 33% of the first goals in the first 15 mins.. so in my view thats too high not to trade (other Overs strategies involve entering later when the odds are better) - but as the odds deplete quickly I protect my position by trading out and back in as described.

All the above times and amounts are based on the analysis of goal times. After 60 mins on the 02.5's there's not enough goals historically on my filters to justify staying in, likewise after 70 mins on the 01.5.

Hope that helps a bit

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Couple of trades possible tonight as follows:

O2.5 Brazil Internacional vs America MG
(Rules: split stake from start out after 60 mins if no goal, out with green whenever there's a goal or cash out to free bet, Limit loss by coming out and going back in after first split stake (15 mins) and monitor in play stats. First two drip stakes automatic - next two depend on minimum 3 SOT and further SOT))

Thanks for sharing these, @Mark-Maguire, and good luck with your trading relaunch. Just to clarify for less experienced traders like myself, could you give an example of how the staking works? Are these B2L or L2B? Do you have an entry odds criterion? How many parts is the stake split into and how do you determine when and how much to drip in? When you trade out after 15, do you just take the offered red and then start dripping in again with whatever's left of the original stake?

Sorry for all the questions; as you can see, I've got a lot to learn.

Richard Latimer

On that note:

Lay under 1.5

Also come up today is Arda in Bulgaria although if it were to be goalless I could easily rule it out from here on in as it barely qualifies right now.

Bearing that in mind I'm going to sit that one out but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dud game there and a future overs lay.

Richard Latimer

@Mark-Maguire I'm on the first one of these with under 1.5 lay

Akiva Anderson

I've taken Celtic to win at 1.22 tonight.

I like those odds. 1.22 is the minimum I'd take for SHG, so I fully expect Celtic to win tonight. So does the market!

Mark Maguire

Couple of trades possible tonight as follows:

O2.5 Brazil Internacional vs America MG
(Rules: split stake from start out after 60 mins if no goal, out with green whenever there's a goal or cash out to free bet, Limit loss by coming out and going back in after first split stake (15 mins) and monitor in play stats. First two drip stakes automatic - next two depend on minimum 3 SOT and further SOT))

02.5 Brazil, Cortiba vs Gremio

(Same staking as above but note this is on my "stats busting" filter so always stake cautiously - its my most tweaked filter and under its latest incarnation the % chance of 02.5 looks rubbish but over 235 games since last tweak of the filter its a SR of 89%)

01.5 Brazil Internacional vs Gremio

(Rules split stake out after 70 mins if no goal, limit loss by coming out and going back in after first split stake (15 mins) and monitor in play stats. First two drip stakes automatic - next two depend on minimum 3 SOT and further SOT)

LTD

Celtic vs St Mirren (if odds get reasonable and inlay stats favourable otherwise will leave it alone)

Mark Maguire

@Richard-Latimer its split stake out by 70 mins.

I enter early and nowadays, trade out and back in after 15 mins just to protect depletion of first drip, monitor in play stats and take the loss at 70.

I reset my spreadsheets a while back but the 90% dates back to the start circa 1500 trades but for example my up to date spreadsheet there are (neatly) 600 trades starting 18th September 2022 - 537 green 63 red, 90% SR.. The one thing to note is there isn't the minimum number of matches in season on it .. which I'm analysing whether to add or not

Richard Latimer

@Mark-Maguire for the over 1.5 is this set and forget? How long are the 1500 trades over?

Mark Maguire

@Andy-Donnelly I love ELO ratings

Andy Donnelly

@Mark-Maguire Thanks, will take a look.

Haven’t used ELO ratings much, will need to take a look at those

Ryan

@Mark-Maguire Corrr blimey a set and forget LTD at 86% SR stuff dreams are made of that!

Mark Maguire

@Andy-Donnelly no prob .. I use settings which if I remember rightly I adapted from a filter which existed .. and just added ELO..

Over 1.5 FT > 80%
Ov goals scored per match avg >= 2
Ov FT 02.5 % >65

Then an either or for the ELO ratings .. Home needs to be 100 more than opposition OR away needs to be 150 more than opposition

Should add that I work on split stake and exit after 70 mins regardless if no goal. I also protect with stop loss with the early drip stakes

Andy Donnelly

@Mark-Maguire Nice work. May I ask, what’s your filter settings for your O1.5 strategy? Intrigued as it’s a market I’ve struggled with in the last year.

Martin

@Tony-Hastie get your tips out!

Tony Hastie

@Martin Are they not tips??

Mark Maguire

@Martin cheers Martin .. I guess I know thats true.. just needed to have a word with myself on it

Martin

@Mark-Maguire never fear posting your trades, we take responsibility for our own trades!

Mark Maguire

@Ryan Cheers again .. and for all the help!!

Aim now is to be accountable here. In the past I struggled when I went through periods of maybe over posting my trades and ending up feeling responsible when they went wrong.

However three years in and the headline is that my focus remains football with some learning on the horse racing in the background. Without repeating too much of what I've said in the past ..

I have 4 (yes 4) versions of an Over 2.5 strategy - nuanced but have never dropped them because they have strike rates of between 86% and 89% individually tested/traded with between 500 and 2000 trades. I have used ELO and other stats (Poisson) to narrow down final selection and most important with mind set the focus is minimise losing trades and maximise wins (sounds simple and obvious but...) key is to trust the strike rate as well as stay very disciplined with in play stats and indicators getting out when I should.

Then I have an LTD inspired by Ryan added ELO to Betgreen and thats got a strike rate on set and forget of 84% - which goes up to 86% with home favourites - I can improve profit by using stop losses and monitoring in play and am also using analysis of leagues and countries to dictate which I trade.. example strike rate Belgium 89% Denmark 69%, Strike Rate Bundesliga 88% Bundesliga 2 92% .. aim here is to minimise losing trades and improve final selection.

Then an o1.5 inspired by Keith. SR is 90% at present over 1500 trades - challenge here is the concept of value and how to trade more efficiently to maximise return. With the SR it may be one I look to automate.

Then finally testing an Under2.5 strategy with a view to get out after 20mins/half an hour - potential to automate .. its early days on this but Unders are of interest generally speaking and will definitely be developing strategies on these, both from start and as a reaction to goals because my deep dive into stats tells me there are sweet spots where you can expect a 15-20 minute gap between goals.. but far too early to celebrate on this.

Overall therefore I will look to post selections, rationale and results where I can, as well as learning from everyone here .