*****New Football Thread*****

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire That makes perfect sense. Re strike rates, I imagine profitability must be quite hard to calculate, since the returns will vary so greatly according to goal time. Just a case of monitoring the P&L, I suppose?

Alastair Todd

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

an 85% Strike Rate is only any good if the 15 losing trades out of 100 are costing less than you make on the 85 winning trades.. early on with my trading I was too focussed on strike rate - its important of course but minimising those losses at both ends (early staking and 60 minutes exit) are crucial to profitability.

Mark, this is such a good point, especially if a winning trade is only about a quarter of a losing trade. As you say a high strike rate is irrelevant if the bank is not actually increasing.

Mark Maguire

@Trevor-H again, perhaps unusually , I will often trade more than one strategy in a game - the filters are independent of each other.

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire Ah, OK, so you put your reduced 1st drip back into the pot and then divide by 3 (or whatever). That makes more sense. Thanks for clarifying. By the way, I think you've conflated two matches in 'Internacional vs Gremio'. Either way, one game looks like qualifying for two trades. Would you trade both strategies in the same game and, if so, would you use 2 x £40 or keep to the original overall risk by using 2 x £20?

Mark Maguire

@Trevor-H I haven't come across it either so it may be madness on my part but comes from the principle of working with the discipline of a stop loss - to take your example I would say back £10 at the start, take the loss at 15 unless inplay stats are crazy.. drip another 10.. although if its an active game I may drip in a little more at the better odds.. (remember in your example the max stake is 4x10 so Ive got 40 to play with so lets say I put 12 in at 15, 12 at 35 12 at 45 having taken the 4 loss at 15 (though it probably wouldn't be as much as 4 after fifteen mins)

Important to note that after the second drip any further activity is very much dependent on inplay stats .

My whole drive at the moment is minimise losses where they inevitable occur and maximise profits on winning trade - without stating the obvious an 85% Strike Rate is only any good if the 15 losing trades out of 100 are costing less than you make on the 85 winning trades.. early on with my trading I was too focussed on strike rate - its important of course but minimising those losses at both ends (early staking and 60 minutes exit) are crucial to profitability.

Richard Latimer

These 2 for tomorrow:

Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8
Lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire Helps a lot; thanks. I've not come across this out-and-back-in method before, so trying to get my head round that. Let's say, for round numbers, you're staking 4 x £10. No goal at 15, so you trade out for a £4 loss (say) and put another £10 on straight away, followed by two further £10 FH drips as described. If there's a FH goal at any point, you're out of the trade for whatever green is offered (or a free bet). I see that if there's no goal, or the stats don't look good, you're taking a smaller loss but, equally, if a goal is scored (which seems to be quite a high % of the time), you're also getting a smaller green, aren't you? You alluded to time decay, so I guess that's where the logic of the system lies.

Mark Maguire

@Trevor-H not a problem ..

in terms of your questions - I enter equal amounts (1/4 of my stake) at the start, then at 15 mins, 35 mins and 45 mins (the last two depend on there being enough shots on target) I either back over 2.5 or lay under 2.5 depending on my strength of feeling about the opportunity and the risk, no exact science to this other than I won't risk more than the accepted per cent of my bank overall (2-5% max) on the trade.

When I cash out the first part its a case of just taking the red. I have analysed goal times for the last three years and across the filters get about 33% of the first goals in the first 15 mins.. so in my view thats too high not to trade (other Overs strategies involve entering later when the odds are better) - but as the odds deplete quickly I protect my position by trading out and back in as described.

All the above times and amounts are based on the analysis of goal times. After 60 mins on the 02.5's there's not enough goals historically on my filters to justify staying in, likewise after 70 mins on the 01.5.

Hope that helps a bit

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Couple of trades possible tonight as follows:

O2.5 Brazil Internacional vs America MG
(Rules: split stake from start out after 60 mins if no goal, out with green whenever there's a goal or cash out to free bet, Limit loss by coming out and going back in after first split stake (15 mins) and monitor in play stats. First two drip stakes automatic - next two depend on minimum 3 SOT and further SOT))

Thanks for sharing these, @Mark-Maguire, and good luck with your trading relaunch. Just to clarify for less experienced traders like myself, could you give an example of how the staking works? Are these B2L or L2B? Do you have an entry odds criterion? How many parts is the stake split into and how do you determine when and how much to drip in? When you trade out after 15, do you just take the offered red and then start dripping in again with whatever's left of the original stake?

Sorry for all the questions; as you can see, I've got a lot to learn.

Richard Latimer

On that note:

Lay under 1.5

Also come up today is Arda in Bulgaria although if it were to be goalless I could easily rule it out from here on in as it barely qualifies right now.

Bearing that in mind I'm going to sit that one out but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dud game there and a future overs lay.

Richard Latimer

@Mark-Maguire I'm on the first one of these with under 1.5 lay

Akiva Anderson

I've taken Celtic to win at 1.22 tonight.

I like those odds. 1.22 is the minimum I'd take for SHG, so I fully expect Celtic to win tonight. So does the market!

Mark Maguire

Couple of trades possible tonight as follows:

O2.5 Brazil Internacional vs America MG
(Rules: split stake from start out after 60 mins if no goal, out with green whenever there's a goal or cash out to free bet, Limit loss by coming out and going back in after first split stake (15 mins) and monitor in play stats. First two drip stakes automatic - next two depend on minimum 3 SOT and further SOT))

02.5 Brazil, Cortiba vs Gremio

(Same staking as above but note this is on my "stats busting" filter so always stake cautiously - its my most tweaked filter and under its latest incarnation the % chance of 02.5 looks rubbish but over 235 games since last tweak of the filter its a SR of 89%)

01.5 Brazil Internacional vs Gremio

(Rules split stake out after 70 mins if no goal, limit loss by coming out and going back in after first split stake (15 mins) and monitor in play stats. First two drip stakes automatic - next two depend on minimum 3 SOT and further SOT)

LTD

Celtic vs St Mirren (if odds get reasonable and inlay stats favourable otherwise will leave it alone)

Mark Maguire

@Richard-Latimer its split stake out by 70 mins.

I enter early and nowadays, trade out and back in after 15 mins just to protect depletion of first drip, monitor in play stats and take the loss at 70.

I reset my spreadsheets a while back but the 90% dates back to the start circa 1500 trades but for example my up to date spreadsheet there are (neatly) 600 trades starting 18th September 2022 - 537 green 63 red, 90% SR.. The one thing to note is there isn't the minimum number of matches in season on it .. which I'm analysing whether to add or not

Richard Latimer

@Mark-Maguire for the over 1.5 is this set and forget? How long are the 1500 trades over?

Mark Maguire

@Andy-Donnelly I love ELO ratings

Andy Donnelly

@Mark-Maguire Thanks, will take a look.

Haven’t used ELO ratings much, will need to take a look at those

Ryan

@Mark-Maguire Corrr blimey a set and forget LTD at 86% SR stuff dreams are made of that!

Mark Maguire

@Andy-Donnelly no prob .. I use settings which if I remember rightly I adapted from a filter which existed .. and just added ELO..

Over 1.5 FT > 80%
Ov goals scored per match avg >= 2
Ov FT 02.5 % >65

Then an either or for the ELO ratings .. Home needs to be 100 more than opposition OR away needs to be 150 more than opposition

Should add that I work on split stake and exit after 70 mins regardless if no goal. I also protect with stop loss with the early drip stakes

Andy Donnelly

@Mark-Maguire Nice work. May I ask, what’s your filter settings for your O1.5 strategy? Intrigued as it’s a market I’ve struggled with in the last year.