*****New Football Thread*****
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O2.5 Brazil Internacional vs America MG
: / turned what would have been green on filter rules into small red by going back in with second drip late in second half .. took the small red at 60 mins and not unhappy with my decision as with inplay stats was confident of second goal and nine of ten times would have happened.
02.5 Brazil, Cortiba vs Gremio
took green after first goal and second drip.
01.5 Brazil Internacional vs Gremio
took green and the added to it with second goal/free bet
LTD
Celtic vs St Mirren
green on main trade and also green on 02.5 goals which I entered when St Mirren scored first
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@Trevor-H I use that partial cash out in play so at the point of that its green .. but if there is no other goal I have left the risk of an acceptable loss if that makes sense.. I constantly review the position according to in play stats, and can get out for break even, add to the position or just leave it and take the loss.
The main thing is to secure a minimal loss or free bet IF I decide to stay in, otherwise I just take the green
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@Mark-Maguire Does your 'stop-loss position' mean cashing out? I'm a bit confused by 'minimising any loss', since both trades were green after the goal, so there wouldn't seem to be any loss to minimise at this stage. (Sorry if I'm being thick.)
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
On that note:
Lay under 1.5
Also come up today is Arda in Bulgaria although if it were to be goalless I could easily rule it out from here on in as it barely qualifies right now.
Bearing that in mind I'm going to sit that one out but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dud game there and a future overs lay.
First trade of the month is a winner. Also avoided the dud in Bulgaria as I was proved right.
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Trevor-H I've taken a "stop loss position" on the 01.5 i.e minimised any loss .. similar on 02.5 - but because my stats say there may be more goals I've just dripped in a small amount at 1.85 on the O2.5 which I will stick to coming out at 60 mins if there is no 2nd goal
There better be a 2nd goal
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@Trevor-H I've taken a "stop loss position" on the 01.5 i.e minimised any loss .. similar on 02.5 - but because my stats say there may be more goals I've just dripped in a small amount at 1.85 on the O2.5 which I will stick to coming out at 60 mins if there is no 2nd goal
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@Akiva-Anderson Yes, Celtic had all the momentum 2H. Laid the draw at 3 and 2.5 for about 50% RoI, though the market was suspended for what seemed like ages after they scored. Didn't matter in the end, of course.
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@Mark-Maguire What's your verdict on the Internacional game? Early goal, so just the first drip in. The cashout on both O1.5 and O2.5 wasn't much less than the win if going for the free bet, so cashing out seemed the best option. Small profit but 21% RoI, so can't moan at that, and your opinion that goals often come early is reinforced. (Of course, now I wish I'd put everything on at KO, but I expect you've worked out that wouldn't be +EV.)
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
I've taken Celtic to win at 1.22 tonight.
I like those odds. 1.22 is the minimum I'd take for SHG, so I fully expect Celtic to win tonight. So does the market!
Took Celtic at 1.22 then took them again at 1.57. They rarely drop points at home
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@Mark-Maguire That makes perfect sense. Re strike rates, I imagine profitability must be quite hard to calculate, since the returns will vary so greatly according to goal time. Just a case of monitoring the P&L, I suppose?
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
an 85% Strike Rate is only any good if the 15 losing trades out of 100 are costing less than you make on the 85 winning trades.. early on with my trading I was too focussed on strike rate - its important of course but minimising those losses at both ends (early staking and 60 minutes exit) are crucial to profitability.
Mark, this is such a good point, especially if a winning trade is only about a quarter of a losing trade. As you say a high strike rate is irrelevant if the bank is not actually increasing.
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@Mark-Maguire Ah, OK, so you put your reduced 1st drip back into the pot and then divide by 3 (or whatever). That makes more sense. Thanks for clarifying. By the way, I think you've conflated two matches in 'Internacional vs Gremio'. Either way, one game looks like qualifying for two trades. Would you trade both strategies in the same game and, if so, would you use 2 x £40 or keep to the original overall risk by using 2 x £20?
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@Trevor-H I haven't come across it either so it may be madness on my part but comes from the principle of working with the discipline of a stop loss - to take your example I would say back £10 at the start, take the loss at 15 unless inplay stats are crazy.. drip another 10.. although if its an active game I may drip in a little more at the better odds.. (remember in your example the max stake is 4x10 so Ive got 40 to play with so lets say I put 12 in at 15, 12 at 35 12 at 45 having taken the 4 loss at 15 (though it probably wouldn't be as much as 4 after fifteen mins)
Important to note that after the second drip any further activity is very much dependent on inplay stats .
My whole drive at the moment is minimise losses where they inevitable occur and maximise profits on winning trade - without stating the obvious an 85% Strike Rate is only any good if the 15 losing trades out of 100 are costing less than you make on the 85 winning trades.. early on with my trading I was too focussed on strike rate - its important of course but minimising those losses at both ends (early staking and 60 minutes exit) are crucial to profitability.
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These 2 for tomorrow:
Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8
Lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6 -
@Mark-Maguire Helps a lot; thanks. I've not come across this out-and-back-in method before, so trying to get my head round that. Let's say, for round numbers, you're staking 4 x £10. No goal at 15, so you trade out for a £4 loss (say) and put another £10 on straight away, followed by two further £10 FH drips as described. If there's a FH goal at any point, you're out of the trade for whatever green is offered (or a free bet). I see that if there's no goal, or the stats don't look good, you're taking a smaller loss but, equally, if a goal is scored (which seems to be quite a high % of the time), you're also getting a smaller green, aren't you? You alluded to time decay, so I guess that's where the logic of the system lies.
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@Trevor-H not a problem ..
in terms of your questions - I enter equal amounts (1/4 of my stake) at the start, then at 15 mins, 35 mins and 45 mins (the last two depend on there being enough shots on target) I either back over 2.5 or lay under 2.5 depending on my strength of feeling about the opportunity and the risk, no exact science to this other than I won't risk more than the accepted per cent of my bank overall (2-5% max) on the trade.
When I cash out the first part its a case of just taking the red. I have analysed goal times for the last three years and across the filters get about 33% of the first goals in the first 15 mins.. so in my view thats too high not to trade (other Overs strategies involve entering later when the odds are better) - but as the odds deplete quickly I protect my position by trading out and back in as described.
All the above times and amounts are based on the analysis of goal times. After 60 mins on the 02.5's there's not enough goals historically on my filters to justify staying in, likewise after 70 mins on the 01.5.
Hope that helps a bit
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Couple of trades possible tonight as follows:
O2.5 Brazil Internacional vs America MG
(Rules: split stake from start out after 60 mins if no goal, out with green whenever there's a goal or cash out to free bet, Limit loss by coming out and going back in after first split stake (15 mins) and monitor in play stats. First two drip stakes automatic - next two depend on minimum 3 SOT and further SOT))Thanks for sharing these, @Mark-Maguire, and good luck with your trading relaunch. Just to clarify for less experienced traders like myself, could you give an example of how the staking works? Are these B2L or L2B? Do you have an entry odds criterion? How many parts is the stake split into and how do you determine when and how much to drip in? When you trade out after 15, do you just take the offered red and then start dripping in again with whatever's left of the original stake?
Sorry for all the questions; as you can see, I've got a lot to learn.
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On that note:
Lay under 1.5
Also come up today is Arda in Bulgaria although if it were to be goalless I could easily rule it out from here on in as it barely qualifies right now.
Bearing that in mind I'm going to sit that one out but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dud game there and a future overs lay.
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@Mark-Maguire I'm on the first one of these with under 1.5 lay