*****New Football Thread*****
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@Toni-0 just looking at my stats analysis for the game and the ELO odds suggest probability of a Volendam win are 5% (Ajax 85%, Draw 10%) so from that Volendam should be at 20, Ajax at 1.18.
Predicted score from my model is 3-2 however which puts the game closer.
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@Mark-Maguire yes true im going to watch the game tonight and see what type of game is playing out. I dont trade away games at the moment only Home teams so it will go against my Strategy but that price just seemed big to me. Thanks for your reply the game is on betfair live if you wanted to watch it.
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@Toni-0 The question for me would be (while understanding the price is big) what makes it value ?. its only value if you feel its likely to happen .. so to your point Volendam awful away from home. So you are relying on Ajax continuing to be rubbish .. and they may well do that.. for me this is a could be anything type of game .. the one thing I do think that will happen is that there will be a couple of goals.(guarantee a nil nil now I've said that)
My concern for you on Volendam would be Ajax simply have to do something to arrest the slide .. and they won't get a better chance than tonight. If they hate the choice of manager you'll be quids in, but it must be getting to the point that struggling teams often reach where all the selfishness, discontent etc gets put aside and they all realise we have to just pull together - same for the fans..
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Would you guys say Volendam away to Ajax Draw no bet at 10.5 is Value? Volendam are Terrible away from home lost the last 7 but 10.5 draw no bet looks huge as Ajax are really struggling and have just appointed a new manager. What are your thoughts?
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@Mark-Maguire I went for the O2.5 and came out at 70' when it was 1-0. Late goals are killing me lately. They happen so often in these tinpot leagues that I'm sure there's a fix in somewhere.
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@Mark-Maguire ah well a green is a green
two in two from the home team after I greened up -
Taking small green in Indian game with FAV losing and only 15 mins to go/attacks increasing from home team
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@Trevor-H the Indian game wouldn't qualify for my over 2.5 because I need a minimum of ten games in the season.
In terms of staking no its not the same, I will drip more in if inplay stats are good but essentially its a set and forget with the Caveat that I won't risk a late goal if its 0-0 with a few mins to go
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@Mark-Maguire The Indian game looks more like an O2.5, going on the season so far! Volendam have 0 pts away as yet, which won't help their match odds. (Tempting to lay Ajax at 1.27.) Do you use the same staking plan for LTD as for the overs?
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Final point always a bit cautious on quiet days because the temptation to trade just because there are a couple of games on the filter can outweigh the actual reality of how good or bad the opportunities are.
Absolutely spot on Mark, I bet many of us have fallen into that trap - I know I have!
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Just a couple today with caveats:
LTD
Mumbai vs Minerva the caveat is its literally the first time an Indian game has come up on this filter .. after more than 1500 games so no data to check it but will trade it cautiously based on the ELO odds and home favourite etc
AJAX vs Volendam - this is an interesting one because Ajax being favourites is purely based on reputation and history - certainly not on form.
It also comes up on O1.5 filter - Ajax have appointed someone til the end of the season and are desperate to stop their fans rioting - so I will trade strongly on Overs cautiously on LTD - normally a new manager would be one that would make me cautious on goals but it Aiax and they are at home against Volendam .. I can't imagine the locals celebrating a nil nil which ordinarily for a club sitting bottom would be described as steadying the ship..
Bit of a ramble for just a couple of trades but helps me check my rationale by "saying it out loud".
Final point always a bit cautious on quiet days because the temptation to trade just because there are a couple of games on the filter can outweigh the actual reality of how good or bad the opportunities are.
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@Mark-Maguire he's back with a bang!!!
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O2.5 Brazil Internacional vs America MG
: / turned what would have been green on filter rules into small red by going back in with second drip late in second half .. took the small red at 60 mins and not unhappy with my decision as with inplay stats was confident of second goal and nine of ten times would have happened.02.5 Brazil, Cortiba vs Gremio
took green after first goal and second drip.01.5 Brazil Internacional vs Gremio
took green and the added to it with second goal/free betLTD
Celtic vs St Mirren
green on main trade and also green on 02.5 goals which I entered when St Mirren scored first -
@Trevor-H I use that partial cash out in play so at the point of that its green .. but if there is no other goal I have left the risk of an acceptable loss if that makes sense.. I constantly review the position according to in play stats, and can get out for break even, add to the position or just leave it and take the loss.
The main thing is to secure a minimal loss or free bet IF I decide to stay in, otherwise I just take the green
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@Mark-Maguire Does your 'stop-loss position' mean cashing out? I'm a bit confused by 'minimising any loss', since both trades were green after the goal, so there wouldn't seem to be any loss to minimise at this stage. (Sorry if I'm being thick.)
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
On that note:
Lay under 1.5
Also come up today is Arda in Bulgaria although if it were to be goalless I could easily rule it out from here on in as it barely qualifies right now.
Bearing that in mind I'm going to sit that one out but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dud game there and a future overs lay.
First trade of the month is a winner. Also avoided the dud in Bulgaria as I was proved right.
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Trevor-H I've taken a "stop loss position" on the 01.5 i.e minimised any loss .. similar on 02.5 - but because my stats say there may be more goals I've just dripped in a small amount at 1.85 on the O2.5 which I will stick to coming out at 60 mins if there is no 2nd goal
There better be a 2nd goal
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@Trevor-H I've taken a "stop loss position" on the 01.5 i.e minimised any loss .. similar on 02.5 - but because my stats say there may be more goals I've just dripped in a small amount at 1.85 on the O2.5 which I will stick to coming out at 60 mins if there is no 2nd goal
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@Akiva-Anderson Yes, Celtic had all the momentum 2H. Laid the draw at 3 and 2.5 for about 50% RoI, though the market was suspended for what seemed like ages after they scored. Didn't matter in the end, of course.
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@Mark-Maguire What's your verdict on the Internacional game? Early goal, so just the first drip in. The cashout on both O1.5 and O2.5 wasn't much less than the win if going for the free bet, so cashing out seemed the best option. Small profit but 21% RoI, so can't moan at that, and your opinion that goals often come early is reinforced. (Of course, now I wish I'd put everything on at KO, but I expect you've worked out that wouldn't be +EV.)
