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*****New Football Thread*****

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    wrote on last edited by
    #3081

    o2.5 Split stake

    Venlo vs Jong AZ ✅

    Will also monitor in play Utsikten vs Gefle for an 02.5 trade if it starts with decent stats ❌ had a dabble but out quickly

    LTD

    These seem obvious and will need odds to become value

    Paris SG vs Montpellier ✅
    Porto vs Estoril✅ albeit shock winner in Estoril
    Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa✅

    01.5

    PSG will also be an 01.5 ✅

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #3082

    @Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

    Just this tomorrow:

    bd0c0ced-95b5-4e61-93e0-79c69e6222f8-image.png

    Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8 or lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6

    Under 1.5 was 9.4 to lay so took under 2.5 @ 3.5 (matched first few mins)

    Currently 3-0

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    wrote on last edited by
    #3083

    Quiet day again today:

    o2.5 Split stake

    Venlo vs Jong AZ (out after 60 mins if no goal)

    Will also monitor in play Utsikten vs Gefle for an 02.5 trade if it starts with decent stats.

    LTD

    These seem obvious and will need odds to become value

    Paris SG vs Montpellier
    Porto vs Estoril
    Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa

    Warning my LTD Set and Forget are currently on nineteen games green so I'm expecting a red soon. .. sods law it will be when start posting here.

    01.5

    PSG will also be an 01.5 but again odds will be poor.

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #3084

    Just this tomorrow:

    bd0c0ced-95b5-4e61-93e0-79c69e6222f8-image.png

    Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8 or lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #3085

    @Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

    These 2 for tomorrow:

    f5abce78-3ef4-4c19-a8b1-c38fa2d9170d-image.png

    Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8
    Lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6

    Last game postponed for some reason so just the one trade and one win today.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #3086

    Does anyone on here use Footy Amigo? im sure i read some time ago that a member was using it. it looks brilliant from what they say they can do they msg you with your set critea like how many shots corners etc in a game pre match and inplay stats. It would save me so much time on weekends i have sometimes over 10 games open at once can be really hard to keep track!

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #3087

    @Mark-Maguire yea your not wrong!! you can see why they are struggling they need some quality up front to convert the chances they create.

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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #3088

    @Toni-0 to be fair if Ajax had more composure in front of goal it could have been 8-2

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #3089

    @Mark-Maguire well played i was gonna back over 0.5 goals after about 55 minutes in Ajax game was sure it wouldnt stay 0-0 the way the game was going but the odds were a bit skinny

    M 1 Reply Last reply
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    wrote on last edited by
    #3090

    Just a couple today with caveats:

    LTD

    Mumbai vs Minerva

    ✅ green albeit smaller than if I'd stayed in

    AJAX vs Volendam

    LTD ✅
    01.5 ✅ (Greened after first goal)

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #3091

    All Ajax so far they look up for it tonight

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #3092

    @Mark-Maguire i need to use the ELO more but dont exactly understand it. One thing to look into for November. Thanks for the Stats mate

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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #3093

    @Toni-0 just looking at my stats analysis for the game and the ELO odds suggest probability of a Volendam win are 5% (Ajax 85%, Draw 10%) so from that Volendam should be at 20, Ajax at 1.18.

    Predicted score from my model is 3-2 however which puts the game closer.

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #3094

    @Mark-Maguire yes true im going to watch the game tonight and see what type of game is playing out. I dont trade away games at the moment only Home teams so it will go against my Strategy but that price just seemed big to me. Thanks for your reply the game is on betfair live if you wanted to watch it.

    M 1 Reply Last reply
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #3095

    @Toni-0 The question for me would be (while understanding the price is big) what makes it value ?. its only value if you feel its likely to happen .. so to your point Volendam awful away from home. So you are relying on Ajax continuing to be rubbish .. and they may well do that.. for me this is a could be anything type of game .. the one thing I do think that will happen is that there will be a couple of goals.(guarantee a nil nil now I've said that)

    My concern for you on Volendam would be Ajax simply have to do something to arrest the slide .. and they won't get a better chance than tonight. If they hate the choice of manager you'll be quids in, but it must be getting to the point that struggling teams often reach where all the selfishness, discontent etc gets put aside and they all realise we have to just pull together - same for the fans..

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #3096

    Would you guys say Volendam away to Ajax Draw no bet at 10.5 is Value? Volendam are Terrible away from home lost the last 7 but 10.5 draw no bet looks huge as Ajax are really struggling and have just appointed a new manager. What are your thoughts?

    M 1 Reply Last reply
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  • T Offline
    T Offline
    Trevor H
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #3097

    @Mark-Maguire I went for the O2.5 and came out at 70' when it was 1-0. Late goals are killing me lately. They happen so often in these tinpot leagues that I'm sure there's a fix in somewhere.

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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #3098

    @Mark-Maguire ah well a green is a green 😀 two in two from the home team after I greened up

    T 1 Reply Last reply
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #3099

    Taking small green in Indian game with FAV losing and only 15 mins to go/attacks increasing from home team

    M 1 Reply Last reply
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to Trevor H on last edited by
    #3100

    @Trevor-H the Indian game wouldn't qualify for my over 2.5 because I need a minimum of ten games in the season.

    In terms of staking no its not the same, I will drip more in if inplay stats are good but essentially its a set and forget with the Caveat that I won't risk a late goal if its 0-0 with a few mins to go

    M 1 Reply Last reply
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