*****New Football Thread*****

Mark Maguire

o2.5 Split stake

Venlo vs Jong AZ

Will also monitor in play Utsikten vs Gefle for an 02.5 trade if it starts with decent stats had a dabble but out quickly

LTD

These seem obvious and will need odds to become value

Paris SG vs Montpellier
Porto vs Estoril albeit shock winner in Estoril
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa

01.5

PSG will also be an 01.5

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Just this tomorrow:

Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8 or lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6

Under 1.5 was 9.4 to lay so took under 2.5 @ 3.5 (matched first few mins)

Currently 3-0

Mark Maguire

Quiet day again today:

o2.5 Split stake

Venlo vs Jong AZ (out after 60 mins if no goal)

Will also monitor in play Utsikten vs Gefle for an 02.5 trade if it starts with decent stats.

LTD

These seem obvious and will need odds to become value

Paris SG vs Montpellier
Porto vs Estoril
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa

Warning my LTD Set and Forget are currently on nineteen games green so I'm expecting a red soon. .. sods law it will be when start posting here.

01.5

PSG will also be an 01.5 but again odds will be poor.

Richard Latimer

Just this tomorrow:

Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8 or lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

These 2 for tomorrow:

Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8
Lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6

Last game postponed for some reason so just the one trade and one win today.

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Does anyone on here use Footy Amigo? im sure i read some time ago that a member was using it. it looks brilliant from what they say they can do they msg you with your set critea like how many shots corners etc in a game pre match and inplay stats. It would save me so much time on weekends i have sometimes over 10 games open at once can be really hard to keep track!

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@Mark-Maguire yea your not wrong!! you can see why they are struggling they need some quality up front to convert the chances they create.

Mark Maguire

@Toni-0 to be fair if Ajax had more composure in front of goal it could have been 8-2

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@Mark-Maguire well played i was gonna back over 0.5 goals after about 55 minutes in Ajax game was sure it wouldnt stay 0-0 the way the game was going but the odds were a bit skinny

Mark Maguire

Just a couple today with caveats:

LTD

Mumbai vs Minerva

green albeit smaller than if I'd stayed in

AJAX vs Volendam

LTD
01.5 (Greened after first goal)

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All Ajax so far they look up for it tonight

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@Mark-Maguire i need to use the ELO more but dont exactly understand it. One thing to look into for November. Thanks for the Stats mate

Mark Maguire

@Toni-0 just looking at my stats analysis for the game and the ELO odds suggest probability of a Volendam win are 5% (Ajax 85%, Draw 10%) so from that Volendam should be at 20, Ajax at 1.18.

Predicted score from my model is 3-2 however which puts the game closer.

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@Mark-Maguire yes true im going to watch the game tonight and see what type of game is playing out. I dont trade away games at the moment only Home teams so it will go against my Strategy but that price just seemed big to me. Thanks for your reply the game is on betfair live if you wanted to watch it.

Mark Maguire

@Toni-0 The question for me would be (while understanding the price is big) what makes it value ?. its only value if you feel its likely to happen .. so to your point Volendam awful away from home. So you are relying on Ajax continuing to be rubbish .. and they may well do that.. for me this is a could be anything type of game .. the one thing I do think that will happen is that there will be a couple of goals.(guarantee a nil nil now I've said that)

My concern for you on Volendam would be Ajax simply have to do something to arrest the slide .. and they won't get a better chance than tonight. If they hate the choice of manager you'll be quids in, but it must be getting to the point that struggling teams often reach where all the selfishness, discontent etc gets put aside and they all realise we have to just pull together - same for the fans..

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Would you guys say Volendam away to Ajax Draw no bet at 10.5 is Value? Volendam are Terrible away from home lost the last 7 but 10.5 draw no bet looks huge as Ajax are really struggling and have just appointed a new manager. What are your thoughts?

Trevor H

@Mark-Maguire I went for the O2.5 and came out at 70' when it was 1-0. Late goals are killing me lately. They happen so often in these tinpot leagues that I'm sure there's a fix in somewhere.

Mark Maguire

@Mark-Maguire ah well a green is a green two in two from the home team after I greened up

Mark Maguire

Taking small green in Indian game with FAV losing and only 15 mins to go/attacks increasing from home team

Mark Maguire

@Trevor-H the Indian game wouldn't qualify for my over 2.5 because I need a minimum of ten games in the season.

In terms of staking no its not the same, I will drip more in if inplay stats are good but essentially its a set and forget with the Caveat that I won't risk a late goal if its 0-0 with a few mins to go