*****New Football Thread*****

Ryan

@Patrik-Mellqvist I buy gold every month, I have a good ETF for it.

It's performed really well, thing for me is that when inflation is high gold has historically performed well.

(not financial advice!)

mick mcmahon

@Akiva-Anderson that's a great start! It's not just discipline though, you either need the football and/or a great selection process/filter.

Akiva Anderson

Week 1: £100 - £110 (26th May 2024)
Week 2: £110 - £121 (02nd June 2024)
Week 3: £121 - £133.10 (09th June 2024)
Week 4: £133.10 - £146.41 (16th June 2024)
Week 5: £146.41 - £161.05 (23rd June 2024)
Week 6: £161.05 - £177.15 (30th June 2024)
Week 7: £177.15 - £194.86 (07th July 2024)
Week 8: £194.86 - £214.34 (14th July 2024)
Week 9: £214.34 - £235.77 (21st July 2024)
Week 10: £235.77 - £259.34 (28th July 2024)
Week 11: £259.34 - £285.27 (04th August 2024)
Week 12: £285.27 - £313.79 (11th August 2024)
Week 13: £313.79 - £345.16 (18th August 2024)
Week 14: £345.16 - £379.67 (25th August 2024)
Week 15: £379.67 - £417.63 (01st September 2024)
Week 18: £417.63 - £459.39 (08th September 2024)
Week 19: £459.39 - £505.32 (15th September 2024)
Week 20: £505.32 - £555.85 (22nd September2024)
Week 21: £555.85 - £611.43 (29th September 2024)
Week 22: £611.43 - £672.57 (06th October 2024)
Week 23: £672.57 - £739.82 (13th October 2024)
Week 24: £739.82 - £813.80 (20th October 2024)
Week 25: £813.80 - £895.18 (27th October 2024)
Week 26: £895.18 - £984.69 (03rd November 2024)
Week 27: £984.69 - £1083.15 (10th November 2024)
Week 28: £1083.15 - £1191.46 (17th November 2024)
Week 29: £1191.46 - £1310.60 (24th November 2024)
Week 30: £1310.60 - £1441.66 (01st December 2024)
Week 31: £1441.66 - £1585.82 (08th December 2024)
Week 32: £1585.82 - £1744.40 (15th December 2024)
Week 33: £1744.40 - £1918.84 (22nd December 2024)
Week 34: £1918.84 - £2110.72 (29th December 2024)
Week 35: £2110.72 - £2321.79 (05th January 2025)
Week 36: £2321.79 - £2553.96 (12th January 2025)
Week 37: £2553.96 - £2809.35 (19th January 2025)
Week 38: £2809.35 - £3090.28 (26th January 2025)
Week 39: £3090.28 - £3399.30 (02nd February 2025)
Week 40: £3399.30 - £3739.23 (09th February 2025)
Week 41: £3739.23 - £4113.15 (16th February 2025)
Week 42: £4113.15 - £4524.46 (23rd February 2025)
Week 43: £4524.46 - £4976.90 (02nd March 2025)
Week 44: £4976.90 - £5474.90 (09th March 2025)
Week 45: £5474.90 - £6022.35 (16th March 2025)
Week 46: £6022.35 - £6624.48 (23rd March 2025)
Week 47: £6624.48 - £7286.93 (30th March 2025)
Week 48: £7286.93 - £8015.62 (06th April 2025)
Week 49: £8015.62 - £8817.18 (13th April 2025)
Week 50: £8817.18 - £9698.89 (20th April 2025
Week 51: £9698.89 - £10668.77 (27th April 2025)
Week 52: £10668.77 - £11735.64 (04th May 2025)

Hopefully my dates and calculations are correct!

Anyway, I've a lot of work I want started next summer around my house. My wife is 40 in September and I've holidays I want to book! This should help!

Week 3 finishes on Sunday, 09th June. My bank should be at £133.10. It is currently at £173.00.

This is just an insight on what you can do with very little money. Discipline is required!

Akiva Anderson

@Chris-King said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson We can’t and I don’t expect anyone to understand it, but the concept of a return on an investment is something I know she fully understands which was the frustrating part. You’re right though, when I discovered trading through matched betting it seemed like different language

My experience is that friends and family don't see this as 'investing'. They see it as 'gambling' and 'betting'. Once they hear 'Betfair' then all talk of 'investment' is lost

Patrik Mellqvist

@Chris-King
@Ryan

I don't want to give economic advice - but you talk about pensions and I just want to openly reflect on that with my life experience and conservative approach to the world and society development in the future.
So is a take or ignore reply with good-hearted intention.

Historical gold prices have risen and are steady.
Implicitly you will hedge profit when there is a worse economic development climate in the world and the society.
And you will see historically that those factors never improve decay after decay and always get worse.
So the statement that money always loses value over time is true.

Here is an example if i buy 24K Gold Coins for £10000 I know they will have the same value one decay later.
And i know the value will be greater one decay later because of historical data.
Implicitly states that as the value of money will be less or that you get less for £10 one decay later then today.
Also, make the value of Gold higher as it never loses in value and can not be printed digitally or on paper as money that boost the weakness into the world economic climate.

I would choose all days in the week - then the market - because diversification and a good portfolio will not achieve above 7% long-term and 30% tax if not considering special accounts and savings options.
Is not the same risk mitigation approach as gold.

And one last thing - all investments that you not can buy insurance for is bad investments.
The market has no insurance to buy - but gold has and deposit safes have.

Just wanted to mention this as you talk about stocks and pensions.
And in some countries, you have the right to a minimum pension from the state no matter how little or how much you have been working during your lifetime - maybe check that out to see what number the paycheck has.
From there you can estimate and calculate how much you need to put aside to get safe and comfortable when growing old if you choose life as an economically independent trader.

Cheers Patrik From Sweden

Ryan

@Chris-King

She's kinda got a point on the pension thing BUT the issue with pension money is if you personally put it in then thats money you've been taxed on going into a vehicle that you get taxed on again - yes I know you can get a lump out tax free and then also get a top up from employer or government on entry but Stocks and Shares ISAs are all tax free which is something I try to utilise to the fullest. Anyways that's not the point lol...

I love that you spend time thinking, it's such a simple concept but when you actually spend time thinking and being honest you come to these nuggets.

I've always said you have to trade the way you want to, not just blindly following me or anyone for that matter. You've done this you've built something that works for you.

That's a very smart way of doing it!

I feel like a proud parent right now lol

Chris King

@Ryan Thanks, really appreciate the response. Yeah I have tried many ways to trade to see what i prefer, where there is potential for scaling up, how I execute, the list goes on.

My general focus on football is searching for potential angles where i can get my trade odds close to, at or above evens. I feel there is a lot of opportunity to exploit trends in football matches with what may appear to be mediocre strike rates with superb value. I’ve been tracking the BTC SHG members filter to delve in to. Loads of matches on that one usually loads of liquidity.

Yes I have put pressure on myself in the past to do more, trade more, expect more return, it’s not fun and you can easily spend too much time doing that getting frustrated with a lack of progress leaving little time for identifying what’s really working and what’s not working in your trading. I’ve done it. You’ve often said you need thinking time and it is absolutely essential, and I’d say don’t put a limit on how much thinking time you need.

Absolutely tax free…yes, that was another major reason for learning to trade. She did say increasing pension contribution is the way to get the best return. Good argument but trading still trumps thats.

Chris King

@Akiva-Anderson We can’t and I don’t expect anyone to understand it, but the concept of a return on an investment is something I know she fully understands which was the frustrating part. You’re right though, when I discovered trading through matched betting it seemed like different language

Chris King

@Simon-Bates Thanks, and yes patience is absolutely necessary in learning to trade especially patience with yourself and not putting unrealistic pressure on yourself. You have to do it your own way.

Tony Hastie

My partner has just said If I can turn £100 into 70k in a year then she can retire

Akiva Anderson

Realistically, we can't expect our partners to understand. We never understood it. How many bankrolls did we blow in the beginning?!

Ryan

@Chris-King This is a hell of a post and one I have read three times already today.

There's a few things that I really like and it's also the same traits as profitable traders.

The main one being it seems you have really taken the time to look inward and how you want to trade and how it affects you, hence why you said you want to play it safe - there's nothing wrong with that at all.

You know how it works you're making money and its working for you and the way you want to trade, keep with it.

I have seen so many trader get out of their lane because they thought they should be doing more or getting better returns etc... only to ruin what they had because they chased more.

The moral of the story stick with what works for you and that you can handle.

It's also tax free money so the returns are huge because where else could you get tax free returns like this?

Simon Bates

@Chris-King this is brilliant, my missus moans at me for putting so much work into this and not seeing anything back for it, I keep telling her to just be patient and in time she'll see all the hard work I've put in will be worth it, people who don't trade don't understand that you gotta lay the foundations first, she keeps telling me to put bigger stakes on thinking I'll get bigger profits, which she is right in saying but like I said, people who don't trade don't realise the importance of protecting your bank, the profit I make is small compared to some but my profit is rising nice and steady and in time will grow my bank to allow me to scale up, I am disciplined and patient to wait and allow this to happen cos I know by looking at my data what I'm doing is working how I want it to.

Chris King

@mick-mcmahon just scanning here and 3.5 goal market can be good. Also fhg 1.5 goal market. You could find success in more markets too. Make sure you get consistent minimum odds/odds range for your selections.

Chris King

@Akiva-Anderson great post mate, I have a feeling you’ll do it. I’m nowhere near your level and been at this 2-3 years. 1.5 years in earnest I’d say and only now am I really starting to understand and manage all the many facets there are to being successful at trading and finally settling on how I want to do it, which strategies I love to run etc. particularly having faith in the mathematics of a profitable strategy and the patience to let it evolve. Really, this is investing and should be treated as such.

Putting a few ideas together I’ve had in one new test using small stakes over the past 1-2 months I’ve made a 25% return on my bank and have hopefully found what I feel is great balance in a strategy.

When discussing this twice actually with my partner and most recently as part of discussions on savings accounts and returns and how those with money can use it to make a lot of money quickly compared to those who don’t. I said the returns on football/sport trading are potentially huge if you can learn to be profitable compared to any savings account and that’s why I started to learn how to trade, imagine if I’d had a bank to trade with £1000 stakes in this current test, that’s £25k already theoretically!

The answer I’ve had twice in a week to this is ‘yeah but you didn’t’. And, also added ‘I prefer playing it safe with savings’. I explained as I have many times, you only trade with what you can afford to lose, and explained the theory behind trading and how this strategy works at the moment.

I’ll be clear I could easily trade with far bigger stakes and that’s from the money I have specifically set aside to trade and test with, absolutely everything else expenses wise in my life is secured and covered. This is a long term plan for me and when it’s time and I’m ready with a strategy or two I’m more than Confident in I’ll begin to scale it up.

To be fair it’s true I’ll give her that, I don’t trade with a £100k bank, but that’s all I’m giving. Because my gut feeling both times is that’s a jealous response and pretty much sour grapes and perhaps a lack of understanding of what I like to think of as true patience. For a partner that has been really optimistic and supportive in the past of my trading this actually pissed me right off. What if, just what if it was actually £25k? Would I have got that type reaction? Or perhaps ‘well it’s not £250k is it?’

The return, bank increase percentage no matter the bank or stake size is what is important and if it works with a quid, it’ll work with 1000.

She is still supportive of me trading and has said I’ve put too much in to not continue to succeed. Too bloody right, and the irony of this is I’ve actually scaled back my volume and in doing so my trading is improving as a result. Hypothetically speaking If a trusted family member or close friend told you hey, I can show you how to make a +10% compounding return month on month on average you’d think the response would be at least an interest and at best real optimism?

Anyway it goes without saying I am more determined than ever to make this work and myself and as a bonus, an enviable trader. The longer I go on the closer I am to achieving the ultimate goal. Am I taking this personally? Oh Yeah, in a competitive way, I calmly and politely tucked this one away, and I have learned to take a strange liking to negative comments sent my way as they’re nothing but more motivation.

Martin

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

The Obos-Ligaen in Norway is phenomenal for FHG. So far this season, 90% of matches have a FHG. The German Bundesliga was 79% and the English Premiership was 75%. Surprisingly, the A-League was only 71%

Odds for a FHG in the Obos-Ligaen have been around 1.30 pre kick-off

Give me 1.3 on a 90% chance anyday.

mick mcmahon

@Akiva-Anderson out of interest, what market do you use for fhg?

Akiva Anderson

The Obos-Ligaen in Norway is phenomenal for FHG. So far this season, 90% of matches have a FHG. The German Bundesliga was 79% and the English Premiership was 75%. Surprisingly, the A-League was only 71%

Odds for a FHG in the Obos-Ligaen have been around 1.30 pre kick-off

Martin

@Akiva-Anderson good luck with this and great write up! Following with interest

Akiva Anderson

A little update from myself:

I'm still working, albeit part-time. I think I work around 25 hours per week. I really enjoy the work / life balance. I feel happier.

My wife doesn't want me to leave work and I'm certainly not pushing to leave, but I would like it as an option. I asked her what it would take to prove to her that trading works. She said if I could turn £100 into £10,000 within one year then I could quit work.

I decided to try this challenge!

To do this I need to make roughly 10% of my starting bankroll each week. At the end of 'Week 2' (yesterday) my balance should be £121. It is currently £143.20. This is despite a lack of football.

My biggest worry was starting this at the end of the current football season, but football doesn't really end this season. We have the Euros starting in about 10 days. We have football in Norway, Sweden, Ireland and Brazil. We have Champions League, Europa League & Conference League matches starting in July. We have the Scottish League Cup starting in July (great for goals). The Winter leagues start back in August and we have the football at the Olympics in August too. Basically, football has a two week break.

So why do this challenge? For me it is simple. Just like businesses do 'stress tests' - trading is going to be my business. It would be remiss of me not to engage with it. I also want to prove to others that if I somehow lost everything, I could start with a meagre £100 and work it into something meaningful.

Makes you think