*****New Football Thread*****
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@mick-mcmahon One of the things that helped me understand goals and if there was one coming was...
Watching lower league football - it moves slower and mistakes aren't punished as often or as quick as top level BUT the patterns are usually similar so it gives you more chances to spot the mistakes.
Goals come from this:
- Mistakes
- 1 player doing something amazing
- 2 players doing something good
Thats where the lower league comes in on mistakes you can spot the mistakes easier, then it does move up but in the premier league for example a left back might make the mistake 2 times and theres a goal, it might be 5-6 times in the lower leagues.
1 player doing something great, when researching the players see if any of them have the touch of this in their locker...
2 players - again you need somebody who can get in positions to score, somebody who can unlock defences. When you research this as well it helps because when you are watching the game you can see if it's actually happening, for example Bruno at united it great at doing good things, his passes into the box are good very good. Main is also good at getting on the end of them... so if you start to see this happening it helps understand it.
I also like to look at a few of the stats...
- 1st to score
- 1st to concede
These help me watch the teams and question the attacks and the defence as a whole.
Also I like Avg shots per goal... not always that accurate as freak shots and things happen but it helps me keep a tally of X team scores first 80% of the time and they score 1 goal on avg every 7 shots... say its 10 shots in the game I am now feeling more confident.
I hope that's not just bored you and you got some value in that.
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@Akiva-Anderson I fail so hard at that. If there is a lot of attacking I presume there will be a goal, if it's quiet I presume not...
I need your brain, in filter form
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@mick-mcmahon said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson that's a great start! It's not just discipline though, you either need the football and/or a great selection process/filter.
I'm lucky enough to be able to watch a game and predict a SHG
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@Patrik-Mellqvist I buy gold every month, I have a good ETF for it.
It's performed really well, thing for me is that when inflation is high gold has historically performed well.
(not financial advice!)
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@Akiva-Anderson that's a great start! It's not just discipline though, you either need the football and/or a great selection process/filter.
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Week 1: £100 - £110 (26th May 2024)
Week 2: £110 - £121 (02nd June 2024)
Week 3: £121 - £133.10 (09th June 2024)
Week 4: £133.10 - £146.41 (16th June 2024)
Week 5: £146.41 - £161.05 (23rd June 2024)
Week 6: £161.05 - £177.15 (30th June 2024)
Week 7: £177.15 - £194.86 (07th July 2024)
Week 8: £194.86 - £214.34 (14th July 2024)
Week 9: £214.34 - £235.77 (21st July 2024)
Week 10: £235.77 - £259.34 (28th July 2024)
Week 11: £259.34 - £285.27 (04th August 2024)
Week 12: £285.27 - £313.79 (11th August 2024)
Week 13: £313.79 - £345.16 (18th August 2024)
Week 14: £345.16 - £379.67 (25th August 2024)
Week 15: £379.67 - £417.63 (01st September 2024)
Week 18: £417.63 - £459.39 (08th September 2024)
Week 19: £459.39 - £505.32 (15th September 2024)
Week 20: £505.32 - £555.85 (22nd September2024)
Week 21: £555.85 - £611.43 (29th September 2024)
Week 22: £611.43 - £672.57 (06th October 2024)
Week 23: £672.57 - £739.82 (13th October 2024)
Week 24: £739.82 - £813.80 (20th October 2024)
Week 25: £813.80 - £895.18 (27th October 2024)
Week 26: £895.18 - £984.69 (03rd November 2024)
Week 27: £984.69 - £1083.15 (10th November 2024)
Week 28: £1083.15 - £1191.46 (17th November 2024)
Week 29: £1191.46 - £1310.60 (24th November 2024)
Week 30: £1310.60 - £1441.66 (01st December 2024)
Week 31: £1441.66 - £1585.82 (08th December 2024)
Week 32: £1585.82 - £1744.40 (15th December 2024)
Week 33: £1744.40 - £1918.84 (22nd December 2024)
Week 34: £1918.84 - £2110.72 (29th December 2024)
Week 35: £2110.72 - £2321.79 (05th January 2025)
Week 36: £2321.79 - £2553.96 (12th January 2025)
Week 37: £2553.96 - £2809.35 (19th January 2025)
Week 38: £2809.35 - £3090.28 (26th January 2025)
Week 39: £3090.28 - £3399.30 (02nd February 2025)
Week 40: £3399.30 - £3739.23 (09th February 2025)
Week 41: £3739.23 - £4113.15 (16th February 2025)
Week 42: £4113.15 - £4524.46 (23rd February 2025)
Week 43: £4524.46 - £4976.90 (02nd March 2025)
Week 44: £4976.90 - £5474.90 (09th March 2025)
Week 45: £5474.90 - £6022.35 (16th March 2025)
Week 46: £6022.35 - £6624.48 (23rd March 2025)
Week 47: £6624.48 - £7286.93 (30th March 2025)
Week 48: £7286.93 - £8015.62 (06th April 2025)
Week 49: £8015.62 - £8817.18 (13th April 2025)
Week 50: £8817.18 - £9698.89 (20th April 2025
Week 51: £9698.89 - £10668.77 (27th April 2025)
Week 52: £10668.77 - £11735.64 (04th May 2025)Hopefully my dates and calculations are correct!
Anyway, I've a lot of work I want started next summer around my house. My wife is 40 in September and I've holidays I want to book! This should help!
Week 3 finishes on Sunday, 09th June. My bank should be at £133.10. It is currently at £173.00.
This is just an insight on what you can do with very little money. Discipline is required!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Chris-King said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson We can’t and I don’t expect anyone to understand it, but the concept of a return on an investment is something I know she fully understands which was the frustrating part
. You’re right though, when I discovered trading through matched betting it seemed like different languageMy experience is that friends and family don't see this as 'investing'. They see it as 'gambling' and 'betting'. Once they hear 'Betfair' then all talk of 'investment' is lost
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
I don't want to give economic advice - but you talk about pensions and I just want to openly reflect on that with my life experience and conservative approach to the world and society development in the future.
So is a take or ignore reply with good-hearted intention.Historical gold prices have risen and are steady.
Implicitly you will hedge profit when there is a worse economic development climate in the world and the society.
And you will see historically that those factors never improve decay after decay and always get worse.
So the statement that money always loses value over time is true.Here is an example if i buy 24K Gold Coins for £10000 I know they will have the same value one decay later.
And i know the value will be greater one decay later because of historical data.
Implicitly states that as the value of money will be less or that you get less for £10 one decay later then today.
Also, make the value of Gold higher as it never loses in value and can not be printed digitally or on paper as money that boost the weakness into the world economic climate.I would choose all days in the week - then the market - because diversification and a good portfolio will not achieve above 7% long-term and 30% tax if not considering special accounts and savings options.
Is not the same risk mitigation approach as gold.And one last thing - all investments that you not can buy insurance for is bad investments.
The market has no insurance to buy - but gold has and deposit safes have.Just wanted to mention this as you talk about stocks and pensions.
And in some countries, you have the right to a minimum pension from the state no matter how little or how much you have been working during your lifetime - maybe check that out to see what number the paycheck has.
From there you can estimate and calculate how much you need to put aside to get safe and comfortable when growing old if you choose life as an economically independent trader.Cheers Patrik From Sweden
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She's kinda got a point on the pension thing BUT the issue with pension money is if you personally put it in then thats money you've been taxed on going into a vehicle that you get taxed on again - yes I know you can get a lump out tax free and then also get a top up from employer or government on entry but Stocks and Shares ISAs are all tax free which is something I try to utilise to the fullest. Anyways that's not the point lol...
I love that you spend time thinking, it's such a simple concept but when you actually spend time thinking and being honest you come to these nuggets.
I've always said you have to trade the way you want to, not just blindly following me or anyone for that matter. You've done this you've built something that works for you.
That's a very smart way of doing it!
I feel like a proud parent right now lol
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@Ryan Thanks, really appreciate the response. Yeah I have tried many ways to trade to see what i prefer, where there is potential for scaling up, how I execute, the list goes on.
My general focus on football is searching for potential angles where i can get my trade odds close to, at or above evens. I feel there is a lot of opportunity to exploit trends in football matches with what may appear to be mediocre strike rates with superb value. I’ve been tracking the BTC SHG members filter to delve in to. Loads of matches on that one usually loads of liquidity.
Yes I have put pressure on myself in the past to do more, trade more, expect more return, it’s not fun and you can easily spend too much time doing that getting frustrated with a lack of progress leaving little time for identifying what’s really working and what’s not working in your trading. I’ve done it. You’ve often said you need thinking time and it is absolutely essential, and I’d say don’t put a limit on how much thinking time you need.
Absolutely tax free…yes, that was another major reason for learning to trade. She did say increasing pension contribution is the way to get the best return. Good argument but trading still trumps thats.
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@Akiva-Anderson We can’t and I don’t expect anyone to understand it, but the concept of a return on an investment is something I know she fully understands which was the frustrating part
. You’re right though, when I discovered trading through matched betting it seemed like different language -
@Simon-Bates Thanks, and yes patience is absolutely necessary in learning to trade especially patience with yourself and not putting unrealistic pressure on yourself. You have to do it your own way.
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My partner has just said If I can turn £100 into 70k in a year then she can retire
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Realistically, we can't expect our partners to understand. We never understood it. How many bankrolls did we blow in the beginning?!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Chris-King This is a hell of a post and one I have read three times already today.
There's a few things that I really like and it's also the same traits as profitable traders.
The main one being it seems you have really taken the time to look inward and how you want to trade and how it affects you, hence why you said you want to play it safe - there's nothing wrong with that at all.
You know how it works you're making money and its working for you and the way you want to trade, keep with it.
I have seen so many trader get out of their lane because they thought they should be doing more or getting better returns etc... only to ruin what they had because they chased more.
The moral of the story stick with what works for you and that you can handle.
It's also tax free money so the returns are huge because where else could you get tax free returns like this?
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@Chris-King this is brilliant, my missus moans at me for putting so much work into this and not seeing anything back for it, I keep telling her to just be patient and in time she'll see all the hard work I've put in will be worth it, people who don't trade don't understand that you gotta lay the foundations first, she keeps telling me to put bigger stakes on thinking I'll get bigger profits, which she is right in saying but like I said, people who don't trade don't realise the importance of protecting your bank, the profit I make is small compared to some but my profit is rising nice and steady and in time will grow my bank to allow me to scale up, I am disciplined and patient to wait and allow this to happen cos I know by looking at my data what I'm doing is working how I want it to.
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@mick-mcmahon just scanning here and 3.5 goal market can be good. Also fhg 1.5 goal market. You could find success in more markets too. Make sure you get consistent minimum odds/odds range for your selections.
