*****New Football Thread*****

Ryan

@nick thats why I built the super trader framework in the members start here section, and in ST2.0.

It's step by step how to build a strategy so that you know what to put into the software.

It's designed to takeaway the overwhelm.

Ryan

@nick Thats true but then in that case it would mean it would fit your trading criteria better.

So for me for example it would only show trades in this filter that there is a high likelihood of it not being a draw.

Its a lay the draw filter, finding games where I can lay the draw.

Therefore it finds the games best to trade the lay the draw that day, I only focus on those games - I don't care about anything else as this has been tried and tested for me, I know its profitable and this filter in particular has been for over 16 season.

So then I check manually. One thing I stay away from it the random facts / commentator mentions / hunches.

I always stick with the filters and researched trades.

nick

@Ryan Also the problem with this is that if United or a similar team wasnt coming up as a pick then you wouldnt get to the manual check phase.

nick

@Ryan I didnt even realise there was a streak tab. The software is so vast with so many good things in it I can sometimes feel overwhelmed. Thanks for the info Ryan.

Ryan

@nick One of the things I always checked in the stats was this, I didn't have it in the filters what I would do is get the shortlisted games for that day then use the 'streaks' section with the Home / Away setting.

This then gave me a good look at what was happening. It was one of the manual checks I made.

Screenshot 2023-11-06 at 10.14.06.png

Ryan

@Akiva-Anderson Yeh lol but it's great because it give Ten Haag a little longer to have everybody believe he's the man for the job, which I think he is I love his philosophy of replacing good players with terrible ones (the GK!).

nick

I was watching the Fulham Man Utd game saturday lunchtime(and before someone says it I know I/m a glutton for punishment) as the game progressed the BT commentator said that United are on a 24 game stretch without a draw.

This made me wonder about strategies.

I know many people on here play a LTD strategy and I cant recall seeing United coming up as a pick anywhere or even looking at my own, admittedly I am very new to this at the moment.

What I was thinking is what sort of strategy criteria would you need to put in to get teams like united come up as LTD picks, it obviously cant be as simple as putting in a 100% not to of had a draw over the last 10 games or so?

Mind you there is always the other side of the coin a bit like the roulette wheel where black has come in 20 times put your money on red because it is due.

Mark Maguire

@Scott-Higgins it depends on the game and the odds and my strength of feeling/confidence in the trade - also the league, my stats are for example Portugal and Swedish matches can be slow starters so I'm relaxed about waiting twenty mins to get involved and if I miss out I miss out. I've sometimes looked at the Double Chance to back early on Home or Away - odds low and you can't green up, but an option for a sure thing. I won't risk a crazy amount of my bank on LTD but the strike rate gives me enough confidence to trade it as early as odds become semi reasonable

? Offline

@Mark-Maguire are you laying the draw at kick off? If so assuming some big odds?

Richard Latimer

Lay over 1.5 in Serbia and lay under 1.5 in Denmark up to price of 6.8
If between 7.0-9.6 lay under 2.5

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay under 1.5:

First loss on the under lays today.

Lay under 1.5 Blooming (Bolivia)

1-1 which means another £25 day

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay under 1.5:

First loss on the under lays today.

Lay under 1.5 Blooming (Bolivia)

Mark Maguire

Overall decent day let down by the Mickey mousers

LTD

Note as per yesterday if underdog one goal up in last five mins I tend to take green .. glad I did on a Swedish game here..

Ajax vs Heerenveen
Elfsborg vs Degerfors Green before late late equaliser
Sporting vs Estrela

01.5 split stake out after 70 mins

Luton vs Liverpool
Kecsemeti vs Ferencváros
Ajax vs Heerenveen

02.5 Split stake out after 60 mins

Zilina vs Podbrezova
Jonkopinbg vs GAIS

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5:

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8/lay under 2.5 7.0-9.6:

2/2 there

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8/lay under 2.5 7.0-9.6:

Alastair Todd

The french have given me a kicking today with two matches with a total of 1 goal between them which put paid to my o1.5 trades. It was going so well. Grrrr!

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Lay under 1.5 Parnu (Estonia)
Lay over 1.5 St. Liege

So close to a nice payoff in Belgium. Oh well, day is going well still.

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 Rosenborg

Richard Latimer

Lay under 1.5 Parnu (Estonia)
Lay over 1.5 St. Liege