*****New Football Thread*****
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@Mark-Maguire The Indian game looks more like an O2.5, going on the season so far! Volendam have 0 pts away as yet, which won't help their match odds. (Tempting to lay Ajax at 1.27.) Do you use the same staking plan for LTD as for the overs?
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Final point always a bit cautious on quiet days because the temptation to trade just because there are a couple of games on the filter can outweigh the actual reality of how good or bad the opportunities are.
Absolutely spot on Mark, I bet many of us have fallen into that trap - I know I have!
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Just a couple today with caveats:
LTD
Mumbai vs Minerva the caveat is its literally the first time an Indian game has come up on this filter .. after more than 1500 games so no data to check it but will trade it cautiously based on the ELO odds and home favourite etc
AJAX vs Volendam - this is an interesting one because Ajax being favourites is purely based on reputation and history - certainly not on form.
It also comes up on O1.5 filter - Ajax have appointed someone til the end of the season and are desperate to stop their fans rioting - so I will trade strongly on Overs cautiously on LTD - normally a new manager would be one that would make me cautious on goals but it Aiax and they are at home against Volendam .. I can't imagine the locals celebrating a nil nil which ordinarily for a club sitting bottom would be described as steadying the ship..
Bit of a ramble for just a couple of trades but helps me check my rationale by "saying it out loud".
Final point always a bit cautious on quiet days because the temptation to trade just because there are a couple of games on the filter can outweigh the actual reality of how good or bad the opportunities are.
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@Mark-Maguire he's back with a bang!!!
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O2.5 Brazil Internacional vs America MG
: /ο turned what would have been green on filter rules into small red by going back in with second drip late in second half .. took the small red at 60 mins and not unhappy with my decision as with inplay stats was confident of second goal and nine of ten times would have happened.02.5 Brazil, Cortiba vs Gremio
took green after first goal and second drip.01.5 Brazil Internacional vs Gremio
took green and the added to it with second goal/free betLTD
Celtic vs St Mirren
green on main trade and also green on 02.5 goals which I entered when St Mirren scored first -
@Trevor-H I use that partial cash out in play so at the point of that its green .. but if there is no other goal I have left the risk of an acceptable loss if that makes sense.. I constantly review the position according to in play stats, and can get out for break even, add to the position or just leave it and take the loss.
The main thing is to secure a minimal loss or free bet IF I decide to stay in, otherwise I just take the green
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@Mark-Maguire Does your 'stop-loss position' mean cashing out? I'm a bit confused by 'minimising any loss', since both trades were green after the goal, so there wouldn't seem to be any loss to minimise at this stage. (Sorry if I'm being thick.)
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@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
On that note:
Lay under 1.5
Also come up today is Arda in Bulgaria although if it were to be goalless I could easily rule it out from here on in as it barely qualifies right now.
Bearing that in mind I'm going to sit that one out but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a dud game there and a future overs lay.
First trade of the month is a winner. Also avoided the dud in Bulgaria as I was proved right.
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Trevor-H I've taken a "stop loss position" on the 01.5 i.e minimised any loss .. similar on 02.5 - but because my stats say there may be more goals I've just dripped in a small amount at 1.85 on the O2.5 which I will stick to coming out at 60 mins if there is no 2nd goal
There better be a 2nd goal
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@Trevor-H I've taken a "stop loss position" on the 01.5 i.e minimised any loss .. similar on 02.5 - but because my stats say there may be more goals I've just dripped in a small amount at 1.85 on the O2.5 which I will stick to coming out at 60 mins if there is no 2nd goal
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@Akiva-Anderson Yes, Celtic had all the momentum 2H. Laid the draw at 3 and 2.5 for about 50% RoI, though the market was suspended for what seemed like ages after they scored. Didn't matter in the end, of course.
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@Mark-Maguire What's your verdict on the Internacional game? Early goal, so just the first drip in. The cashout on both O1.5 and O2.5 wasn't much less than the win if going for the free bet, so cashing out seemed the best option. Small profit but 21% RoI, so can't moan at that, and your opinion that goals often come early is reinforced. (Of course, now I wish I'd put everything on at KO, but I expect you've worked out that wouldn't be +EV.)
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
I've taken Celtic to win at 1.22 tonight.
I like those odds. 1.22 is the minimum I'd take for SHG, so I fully expect Celtic to win tonight. So does the market!
Took Celtic at 1.22 then took them again at 1.57. They rarely drop points at home
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@Mark-Maguire That makes perfect sense. Re strike rates, I imagine profitability must be quite hard to calculate, since the returns will vary so greatly according to goal time. Just a case of monitoring the P&L, I suppose?
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@Mark-Maguire said in *****New Football Thread*****:
an 85% Strike Rate is only any good if the 15 losing trades out of 100 are costing less than you make on the 85 winning trades.. early on with my trading I was too focussed on strike rate - its important of course but minimising those losses at both ends (early staking and 60 minutes exit) are crucial to profitability.
Mark, this is such a good point, especially if a winning trade is only about a quarter of a losing trade. As you say a high strike rate is irrelevant if the bank is not actually increasing.
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@Mark-Maguire Ah, OK, so you put your reduced 1st drip back into the pot and then divide by 3 (or whatever). That makes more sense. Thanks for clarifying. By the way, I think you've conflated two matches in 'Internacional vs Gremio'. Either way, one game looks like qualifying for two trades. Would you trade both strategies in the same game and, if so, would you use 2 x Β£40 or keep to the original overall risk by using 2 x Β£20?
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@Trevor-H I haven't come across it either so it may be madness on my part
but comes from the principle of working with the discipline of a stop loss - to take your example I would say back Β£10 at the start, take the loss at 15 unless inplay stats are crazy.. drip another 10.. although if its an active game I may drip in a little more at the better odds.. (remember in your example the max stake is 4x10 so Ive got 40 to play with so lets say I put 12 in at 15, 12 at 35 12 at 45 having taken the 4 loss at 15 (though it probably wouldn't be as much as 4 after fifteen mins)Important to note that after the second drip any further activity is very much dependent on inplay stats .
My whole drive at the moment is minimise losses where they inevitable occur and maximise profits on winning trade - without stating the obvious an 85% Strike Rate is only any good if the 15 losing trades out of 100 are costing less than you make on the 85 winning trades.. early on with my trading I was too focussed on strike rate - its important of course but minimising those losses at both ends (early staking and 60 minutes exit) are crucial to profitability.
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These 2 for tomorrow:
Lay under 1.5 up to price of 6.8
Lay under 2.5 between 7.0-9.6Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Mark-Maguire Helps a lot; thanks. I've not come across this out-and-back-in method before, so trying to get my head round that. Let's say, for round numbers, you're staking 4 x Β£10. No goal at 15, so you trade out for a Β£4 loss (say) and put another Β£10 on straight away, followed by two further Β£10 FH drips as described. If there's a FH goal at any point, you're out of the trade for whatever green is offered (or a free bet). I see that if there's no goal, or the stats don't look good, you're taking a smaller loss but, equally, if a goal is scored (which seems to be quite a high % of the time), you're also getting a smaller green, aren't you? You alluded to time decay, so I guess that's where the logic of the system lies.
