*****New Football Thread*****

Arran Shackell

Is it my connection or is the stats software down?

Richard Latimer

Finally getting off the mark for 2024. Lay under 1.5:

Akiva Anderson

Home Wins:

Fulham v Rotherham (FA CUP) - Fulham win at 1.22. Not great odds, but Rotherham are fighting relegation and they concede a lot

Sporting v Estoril. Tight at the top. Expect Sporting to win here. Odds are 1.26

Aaron Rouse

@Mark-Maguire Thanks for your reply.

Your explanation makes perfect sense and completely understand now.

Much appreciated!

Aaron

Mark Maguire

@Aaron-Rouse welcome ! Simple answer is that there is no difference other than your attitude towards risk and reward ..

If you back under 3.5 goals (for an example the Palace vs Everton game tonight) the odds are 1.33 so for a £10 stake the return would be £3.30 on a straight bet.

If you lay over 3.5 the odds are 4.1 so a ten pounds stake would make the liability £31.00 (to win £10) or to make the same return £3.30 the risk would £10.23 -

Its really down to personal preference which way you go. Hope this makes sense.

Aaron Rouse

Hi All,
I am new to trading, and was wondering...what is the difference between laying over 3.5 goals and backing under 3.5 goals.
Thanks

Mark Maguire

Nice little day to day

LTD

Partick vs Queens Park
Rangers vs Kilmarnock

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Morton vs Ayr
Arbroath vs Dundee Utd

Mark Maguire

@Tony-Hastie I am looking for match action in previous games which suggests an early goal in the game .. it started with filters looking for what I think leads to goals rather than goals themselves and then when I studied the data I saw that first goal times were roughly as follows: first 15 mins 35%. next fifteen mins 23% , next fifteen mins 17% (so 75% FHG) then 9% up to 60 mins .. then it drops to 11% for the last half hour and 5% no goal which led to me work out an early entry point and staking - I sometimes trade FHG on these too if my stats say the % FHG is above 94% on the probabilities I calculate .

Tony Hastie

@Mark-Maguire The Partick game has come up in my FHG filter which got me thinking....Are you basically looking for a FHG in your 1.5 and 2.5 strategies? Then trading out? Or is that over simplifying things a bit?

Mark Maguire

Just a couple today

LTD

Partick vs Queens Park
Rangers vs Kilmarnock (if odds come in)

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

Morton vs Ayr
Arbroath vs Dundee Utd

Mark Maguire

Nice start to the year with full house on these and other trades

LTD

Bolton vs Burton
Leicester vs Huddersfield:

01.5 Split Stake Out after 70 if no goal

Chesterfield vs Solihull
Liverpool vs Newcastle

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal

Tranmere vs Notts County
Crawley vs Swindon

Matt Hyam

Tranmere v Notts Co ️ odds didn't come in so no trade luckily
Blackburn v Rotherham ️
Crawley v Swindon ️
Plymouth v Watford ️

Not the best start to the year but did have a good run over the Christmas week so probably due a bad day.

Matt Hyam

@Mark-Maguire currently have Tranmere v Notts Co for under 2.5 FHG

Also have the below
Blackburn v Rotherham
Crawley v Swindon
Plymouth v Watford

Looking for minimum odds of 1.2

Mark Maguire

Ok a couple for me today :

LTD

Bolton vs Burton
Leicester vs Huddersfield

01.5 Split Stake Out after 70 if no goal

Chesterfield vs Solihull
Liverpool vs Newcastle

02.5 Split Stake out after 60 if no goal

Tranmere vs Notts County
Crawley vs Swindon

Chris King

Seems to be good value on the Sheff Wed v Hull match today going by BTC stats/Betfair goal markets, unless I’m missing something.

Alastair Todd

That sense of anticipation when you've cut and pasted the 2023 spreadsheets across to a new 2024 spreadsheet (keeping all the formatting and percentage columns etc).

Good luck in 2024 everybody. Glad to be a part of this community. Bring it on!

Matt Hyam

@Mark-Maguire Thats true, will reply to your post when we get the same games.

Mark Maguire

@Matt-Hyam definitely be good to compare notes

Matt Hyam

@Mark-Maguire glad you got the win. Did you want me to let you know if we get any games the same. Currently have average first goal of 15min and 1 goal in the first half. Dunno if this would be any use to you or change your approach.

Mark Maguire

@Matt-Hyam just - stats were strong so stayed in a bit longer and then doubled down after 1st goal so ends up a profitable trade even though I will have to record it as a loss on here because 1st goal came on 61 mins.... so I'm pleased for both of us