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*****New Football Thread*****

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to Joseph Henderson on last edited by
    #2681

    @Joseph-Henderson at the risk of sounding a little bit sketchy it depends on the game, the odds and inplay action.

    But to give some clarity the filter I have is currently running at a strike rate of about 84% if I were to just set and forget but I have been examining the stats and now know that if the home favourite is odds of less than 1.75 that climbs to 85%, or away favourite needs to be less than 1.65.

    Then I look at other factors - sorry if this sounds nerdy or over the top on stats - there are definitely simpler ways to trade.. but for example if over 1.5 probability is over 90% then the strike rate climbs to 87%. If ELO home probability is over 75% similarly that takes strike rate to 87%. And away ELO probability over 65% =87% SR.

    So having said all that to take the Panathanaikos game as an example - the stats are - home odds of 1.19, ELO Probability 77%, o1.5 % 88% .. (for other filters I also have an 02.5 % of 77% and a FHG % of 97% - all of which mean this is a reasonably strong trade for me - the odds of 8.4 are too big to lay at the moment - so I will probably back the home team to start with, as well as entering my goals trade. Then when and if odds come down and the inplay action suggests the home team are dominant I will get involved at 6 or below - for more marginal trades I want better odds than that (around 3.7-3.8).

    Then depending on how the game goes I will stay in if the dominance continues - on a goal for the home team I will stay in if there is plenty of the game to go and trade out if they go 2-0 up for example. I've done a lot of work on meaningful in play stats and am becoming increasingly disciplined at getting out for a small loss if the action is flat. I think it averages around 7 shots (mixed between on target and off target ideally 3 on target) for a goal so if its half time and the stats are half that for example I either get out or am reducing my staking.

    Sorry its a ramble but hope that makes sense.

    J 1 Reply Last reply
    3
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Joseph Henderson
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #2682

    @Mark-Maguire thanks for sharing this insight.

    Apologies you’ve probably explained before, but what is your entry/exit strategy when trading the LTD selections?

    M 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    wrote on last edited by
    #2683

    a couple today:

    LTD

    If odds get ok:

    Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos
    Galatasaray vs Konyaspor

    01.5 Split Stake

    Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos

    02.5 Split Stake

    Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos (only worry is its on every filter for me today and stats good.. sods law applies)
    Olympiakos vs AEK (cautious staking because of league positions)

    Will also dabble with FHG Panathanaikos in other words if Panathanaikos is a nil nil I will be a tad miserable and cursing the trading gods 😊 😧

    J 1 Reply Last reply
    2
  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Matt Hyam
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #2684

    @Martin Thanks for the heads up, seems OK my end so hopefully any issue been resolved.

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #2685

    Managed to get my set and forget bets sorted this morning but it's been a ballache, anyone trading inplay today be careful as Betfair seems to be very slow, at least my end anyway!

    M 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva Anderson
    wrote on last edited by
    #2686

    SHG in the Stoke v Brighton match. 1-1 at HT

    le jeu avant tout

    Am Yisrael Chai

    When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
    But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva Anderson
    wrote on last edited by
    #2687

    SHG in the Cheltenham v Portsmouth match. 0-0 at HT

    le jeu avant tout

    Am Yisrael Chai

    When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
    But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #2688

    @Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

    Finally getting off the mark for 2024. Lay under 1.5:

    f3bb49bd-42a9-453e-a925-6aee78deb4fc-image.png

    0-2

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • AdamA Offline
    AdamA Offline
    Adam btc team
    replied to Martin on last edited by Adam
    #2689

    @Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:

    @Arran-Shackell

    @Adam is on the case!

    It's back as of around 18:15.

    This issue has been a persistant thorn in my side this last couple of weeks (and everyone else's, I realise!) due to it not being picked up on our monitoring tools.

    Good news is, I have sorted it 🙂

    BTC's Website and Software Man

    1 Reply Last reply
    4
  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Arran Shackell on last edited by
    #2690

    @Arran-Shackell

    @Adam is on the case!

    AdamA 1 Reply Last reply
    2
  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Arran Shackell
    wrote on last edited by
    #2691

    @Martin @Ryan

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    Joseph Henderson
    replied to Arran Shackell on last edited by
    #2692

    @Arran-Shackell Same here - getting 502 Gateway error message

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Arran Shackell
    wrote on last edited by
    #2693

    Is it my connection or is the stats software down?

    J 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #2694

    Finally getting off the mark for 2024. Lay under 1.5:

    f3bb49bd-42a9-453e-a925-6aee78deb4fc-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva Anderson
    wrote on last edited by
    #2695

    Home Wins:

    Fulham v Rotherham (FA CUP) - Fulham win at 1.22. Not great odds, but Rotherham are fighting relegation and they concede a lot

    Sporting v Estoril. Tight at the top. Expect Sporting to win here. Odds are 1.26

    le jeu avant tout

    Am Yisrael Chai

    When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
    But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...

    1 Reply Last reply
    2
  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Aaron Rouse
    replied to Mark Maguire on last edited by
    #2696

    @Mark-Maguire Thanks for your reply.

    Your explanation makes perfect sense and completely understand now.

    Much appreciated!

    Aaron

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to Aaron Rouse on last edited by
    #2697

    @Aaron-Rouse welcome ! Simple answer is that there is no difference other than your attitude towards risk and reward ..

    If you back under 3.5 goals (for an example the Palace vs Everton game tonight) the odds are 1.33 so for a £10 stake the return would be £3.30 on a straight bet.

    If you lay over 3.5 the odds are 4.1 so a ten pounds stake would make the liability £31.00 (to win £10) or to make the same return £3.30 the risk would £10.23 -

    Its really down to personal preference which way you go. Hope this makes sense.

    A 1 Reply Last reply
    3
  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Aaron Rouse
    wrote on last edited by
    #2698

    Hi All,
    I am new to trading, and was wondering...what is the difference between laying over 3.5 goals and backing under 3.5 goals.
    Thanks

    M 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    wrote on last edited by
    #2699

    Nice little day to day

    LTD

    Partick vs Queens Park✅
    Rangers vs Kilmarnock✅

    02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal

    Morton vs Ayr✅
    Arbroath vs Dundee Utd✅

    1 Reply Last reply
    3
  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to Tony Hastie on last edited by
    #2700

    @Tony-Hastie I am looking for match action in previous games which suggests an early goal in the game .. it started with filters looking for what I think leads to goals rather than goals themselves and then when I studied the data I saw that first goal times were roughly as follows: first 15 mins 35%. next fifteen mins 23% , next fifteen mins 17% (so 75% FHG) then 9% up to 60 mins .. then it drops to 11% for the last half hour and 5% no goal which led to me work out an early entry point and staking - I sometimes trade FHG on these too if my stats say the % FHG is above 94% on the probabilities I calculate .

    1 Reply Last reply
    2

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