*****New Football Thread*****
-
@Joseph-Henderson at the risk of sounding a little bit sketchy it depends on the game, the odds and inplay action.
But to give some clarity the filter I have is currently running at a strike rate of about 84% if I were to just set and forget but I have been examining the stats and now know that if the home favourite is odds of less than 1.75 that climbs to 85%, or away favourite needs to be less than 1.65.
Then I look at other factors - sorry if this sounds nerdy or over the top on stats - there are definitely simpler ways to trade.. but for example if over 1.5 probability is over 90% then the strike rate climbs to 87%. If ELO home probability is over 75% similarly that takes strike rate to 87%. And away ELO probability over 65% =87% SR.
So having said all that to take the Panathanaikos game as an example - the stats are - home odds of 1.19, ELO Probability 77%, o1.5 % 88% .. (for other filters I also have an 02.5 % of 77% and a FHG % of 97% - all of which mean this is a reasonably strong trade for me - the odds of 8.4 are too big to lay at the moment - so I will probably back the home team to start with, as well as entering my goals trade. Then when and if odds come down and the inplay action suggests the home team are dominant I will get involved at 6 or below - for more marginal trades I want better odds than that (around 3.7-3.8).
Then depending on how the game goes I will stay in if the dominance continues - on a goal for the home team I will stay in if there is plenty of the game to go and trade out if they go 2-0 up for example. I've done a lot of work on meaningful in play stats and am becoming increasingly disciplined at getting out for a small loss if the action is flat. I think it averages around 7 shots (mixed between on target and off target ideally 3 on target) for a goal so if its half time and the stats are half that for example I either get out or am reducing my staking.
Sorry its a ramble but hope that makes sense.
-
@Mark-Maguire thanks for sharing this insight.
Apologies you’ve probably explained before, but what is your entry/exit strategy when trading the LTD selections?
-
a couple today:
LTD
If odds get ok:
Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos
Galatasaray vs Konyaspor01.5 Split Stake
Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos
02.5 Split Stake
Panathanaikos vs Panetolikos (only worry is its on every filter for me today and stats good.. sods law applies)
Olympiakos vs AEK (cautious staking because of league positions)Will also dabble with FHG Panathanaikos in other words if Panathanaikos is a nil nil I will be a tad miserable and cursing the trading gods
-
SHG in the Stoke v Brighton match. 1-1 at HT
-
SHG in the Cheltenham v Portsmouth match. 0-0 at HT
-
@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Finally getting off the mark for 2024. Lay under 1.5:
0-2
-
@Martin said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Adam is on the case!
It's back as of around 18:15.
This issue has been a persistant thorn in my side this last couple of weeks (and everyone else's, I realise!) due to it not being picked up on our monitoring tools.
Good news is, I have sorted it
-
@Adam is on the case!
-
@Arran-Shackell Same here - getting 502 Gateway error message
-
Is it my connection or is the stats software down?
-
Finally getting off the mark for 2024. Lay under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Home Wins:
Fulham v Rotherham (FA CUP) - Fulham win at 1.22. Not great odds, but Rotherham are fighting relegation and they concede a lot
Sporting v Estoril. Tight at the top. Expect Sporting to win here. Odds are 1.26
-
@Mark-Maguire Thanks for your reply.
Your explanation makes perfect sense and completely understand now.
Much appreciated!
Aaron
-
@Aaron-Rouse welcome ! Simple answer is that there is no difference other than your attitude towards risk and reward ..
If you back under 3.5 goals (for an example the Palace vs Everton game tonight) the odds are 1.33 so for a £10 stake the return would be £3.30 on a straight bet.
If you lay over 3.5 the odds are 4.1 so a ten pounds stake would make the liability £31.00 (to win £10) or to make the same return £3.30 the risk would £10.23 -
Its really down to personal preference which way you go. Hope this makes sense.
-
Hi All,
I am new to trading, and was wondering...what is the difference between laying over 3.5 goals and backing under 3.5 goals.
Thanks -
Nice little day to day
LTD
Partick vs Queens Park
Rangers vs Kilmarnock02.5 Split Stake out after 60 mins if no goal
Morton vs Ayr
Arbroath vs Dundee Utd -
@Tony-Hastie I am looking for match action in previous games which suggests an early goal in the game .. it started with filters looking for what I think leads to goals rather than goals themselves and then when I studied the data I saw that first goal times were roughly as follows: first 15 mins 35%. next fifteen mins 23% , next fifteen mins 17% (so 75% FHG) then 9% up to 60 mins .. then it drops to 11% for the last half hour and 5% no goal which led to me work out an early entry point and staking - I sometimes trade FHG on these too if my stats say the % FHG is above 94% on the probabilities I calculate .
