*****New Football Thread*****
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Going through my filter selections today and noticed one game where the odds were not what I was expecting, checked out the Turkish game, Eyupspor v Altay and realised its top v bottom, best att v worst att and def in the league, just thought I'd bring it to the attention for anyone trading the over and unders markets if they're looking for goals.
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Put mine up
Aussie games done n dusted -
@Akiva-Anderson cheers for sharing!
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My Picks for Sunday:
Over 1.5 Goals:
00:30 - Inter Miami vs Colorado Rapids
06:00 - Newcastle Jets vs Sydney
08:00 - Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
11:30 - Frosinone vs Bologna
12:00 - Rangers vs Celtic
14:30 - TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg
17:30 - Sheffield United vs Chelsea
18:00 - Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest
18:45 - Sporting KC vs Portland Timbers
19:00 - Toluca vs AtlasSHG:
06:00 - Newcastle Jets vs Sydney
06:00 - Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shonan Bellmare
07:00 - Urawa Reds vs Sagan Tosu
11:30 - Frosinone vs Bologna
12:00 - Utsikten vs Gefle
12:00 – Brest v Metz
12:30 - Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
13:00 - Malmö FF vs Hammarby
14:00 – Monza v Napoli
14:00 – Montpellier v Lorient
15:30 – Manchester United v Liverpool
16:00 - Sarpsborg 08 vs Odd
16:05 – Monaco v Rennes
17:00 - Cagliari vs Atalanta
17:00 - Sparta Praha vs Mladá Boleslav
17:30 - Sheffield United vs Chelsea
18:00 - Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest
18:15 - Brann vs Fredrikstad
19:45 – Juventus v Fiorentina
20:30 - Porto vs Vitória SCHome Wins:
06:00 - Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shonan Bellmare (1.48)
07:00 - Urawa Reds vs Sagan Tosu (1.62)
12:30 - Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge (1.75)
17:00 - Sparta Praha vs Mladá Boleslav (1.33)
18:00 - Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest (1.41)
20:30 - Porto vs Vitória SC (1.37) -
@Akiva-Anderson hello mu friend, i like your predictions and your ending quotes
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@Richard-Latimer i have done this also.... come on THE BROM
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I'll be keeping an eye out on these games:
Over 1.5 Goals:
07:30 - Central Coast Mariners vs Wellington Phoenix
12:00 - Hamburger SV vs Kaiserslautern
12:30 - Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
12:30 - Norwich City vs Ipswich Town
14:00 - Karviná vs Viktoria Plzeň
14:30 - SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
15:00 - Luton Town vs AFC Bournemouth
15:00 - Charlton Athletic vs Barnsley
15:00 - Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham United
15:00 - Aston Villa vs Brentford
15:00 - Tranmere Rovers vs Walsall
15:00 - Everton vs Burnley
15:00 - Fulham vs Newcastle United
16:30 - Copiapó vs Deportes Iquique
17:00 - Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905
17:00 - Roma vs Lazio
17:30 - Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart
20:15 - Víkingur Reykjavík vs StjarnanSHG:
06:00 – Ulsan v Suwon
07:30 – Central Coast v Wellington Phoenix
12:00 - Hamburger SV vs Kaiserslautern
12:00 - Östersunds FK vs Trelleborg
12:30 – Crystal Palace v Manchester City
14:00 – Milan v Lecce
14:00 - Degerfors vs GIF Sundsvall
14:30 – Heidenheim v Bayern
14:30 – Union Berlin v Leverkusen
14:30 – Freiburg v Leipzig
14:30 – Mainz v Darmstadt
15:00 – Aston Villa v Brentford
15:00 – Everton v Burnley
15:00 – Leicester v Birmingham
15:00 – Middlesbrough v Swansea
15:00 – Blackburn v Southampton
15:00 – Portsmouth v Shrewsbury
15:00 – Blackpool v Cambridge
15:00 – Bristol Rovers v Bolton
15:00 – Sutton v Stockport
15:00 – Mansfield v Crawley
15:00 – Forest Green v MK Dons
15:00 - Ilves vs Lahti
15:00 - Mariehamn vs EIF
16:00 – Lens v Le Havre
17:00 - Bodø / Glimt vs Viking
17:00 - Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905
17:30 – Brighton v Arsenal
21:00 – Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca (CUP)Home Wins:
12:00 - Hamburger SV vs Kaiserslautern (1.75)
14:00 - Milan vs Lecce (1.36)
15:00 - Leicester City vs Birmingham City (1.33)
15:00 - Aston Villa vs Brentford (1.75)
15:00 - Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury Town (1.40)
16:00 - Lens vs Le Havre (1.52)
17:00 - Slavia Praha vs Bohemians 1905 (1.21) -
I imagine the weather is going to play havoc this weekend?
Also, for anyone this has access to Grok, it looks useful tool to compliment your trading
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@Ben-Dobie said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@andrew-page I was thinking the same when the trade was going pear shaped mate, should have had a closer look beforehand really … I have to own it for not looking hard enough
Made same error myself
dropped some of my prem games dropped some prem games tomorrow
early in season but my favourite team out Bodo/Glimt i will be on over 1.5 every game from outset
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@andrew-page I was thinking the same when the trade was going pear shaped mate, should have had a closer look beforehand really … I have to own it for not looking hard enough
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@Ben-Dobie said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Feyenoord kicking me in the knackers again
Feyenoord be coasting now i reckon qualified for europe spot looks pretty safe
getting to that time of year plenty got nothing to play for
starting to discount teams for that reason only selecting games with everything to play forHowever they caught me lost 1/2 point on match before bailing
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Been a pretty poor week for me so far.
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@Richard-Latimer Thanks for this
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@andrew-page said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Also another question. Does anyone use a specific formula or model for calculating projected average winning and losing streaks?
I’m sure there was discussion about a particular model that would work this out a while back but can’t remember what it was called
why try predict? Ride the wave until it crashes
@andrew-page because if you know what you're longest expected losing streak is you can tailor your staking plan to this for oiptimal gains. Also in the knowledge you won't blow your bank.
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@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Also another question. Does anyone use a specific formula or model for calculating projected average winning and losing streaks?
I’m sure there was discussion about a particular model that would work this out a while back but can’t remember what it was called
@Andy-Donnelly this is what you need:
=LN(1000)/-LN((1-(80/100)))
Paste it into excel. 1000 is number of bets, 80 is the the number of wins as a percentage.
This particualr is losing streak of 4.3 to be expected from 80% over 1000 bets
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@andrew-page Haha, basically I’m trialing something that won’t be for everyone.
Basically an over 0.5 goal strategy. Looking at a staking plan where it’s basically a rolling accumulator for 10 trades. Then cash out and start again. Clearly you’d need to get 10 in a row right, more often than not for this to be profitable
