*****New Football Thread*****
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@Simon-Bates yeah that's a bit rich isn't it, thought it would be shorter shame!
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@Martin I watched a video of yours a while back and you briefly mentioned backing the losing favourite, it's stuck in my head ever since, so I thought I'd give it a go with this game last night but Scotlands lay price was still 4.6 at half time, it was too high for me to try so that's why I went for the under overs instead.
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@Simon-Bates how short did Scotland go in the match odds?
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Experimenting again with this game, wasn't much but didn't lose any profit, cashed out after Ronaldo goal so didn't lose liability.
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@Akiva-Anderson I needed Croatia to win for a treble I had on, it was 0-0 at half time, checked stats on Bet365 loads of goal chances for Croatia, dripped in, when Croatia scored I took out my liability for a free bet, score stayed the same but didn't lose profit.
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@Akiva-Anderson nice and easy!
Anyone back Portugal a goal down? Was busy with NFL but seems an obvious comeback match.
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SHG in the Croatia v Poland match
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Simon-Bates well done! Good trades there!
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@Martin I'm guna contradict myself here but hopefully you'll understand
I'm going to start recording the value bets and see where it gets me, the main thing I've learnt here is to always test, to me this is the biggest discipline for me, and as much as it's boring to record the data for any strategy I know it needs done before real money used.So cos there's been next to none league footy this weekend and not much matched betting opportunities, I decided to use my 'betting funds' and gave that Okayama v Blaublitz Akita match a go after looking at the statistics on the software.
I've had a string of unlucky trades that I've been trying out over the last few weeks but today the good luck gods decided to reward me with today's game.
There was 10 minites of added time on this game so decided to take my liability out at this point and sacrificed 40p and 7p respectively but still greened up nicely.
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@Simon-Bates that's what I would do, so good to test it and see what works
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@Martin, I can use the statistics for finding these 'value odds' and then put them in a spreadsheet like I do with my other strategies to test, start this way and then find any patterns?
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@Simon-Bates that's where you would start to test your theory to see if it held up.
Can't guarantee value just based on stats but it's a really good starting point.
I would look at potential teams etc and motivations as well.
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@Simon-Bates said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Morning all, just a quick question, this fixture came up in the daily email..
Historically it tells us that 85% of their history had under 2.5 goals, this equates to 1.17/1.18.
These are the odds for under 2.5 goals for this match
Am I right in assuming this is a value bet, is this how value bets work?
Yes
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Morning all, just a quick question, this fixture came up in the daily email..
Historically it tells us that 85% of their history had under 2.5 goals, this equates to 1.17/1.18.
These are the odds for under 2.5 goals for this match
Am I right in assuming this is a value bet, is this how value bets work?
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SHG in the Notts County v Accrington match
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SHG in the Bradford v Carlisle match
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@Simon-Bates haha we have all done that at some point I'm sure!
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Fancy Uruguay to beat Paraguay here. 1.58
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So you know I don't shy away from posting my losing trades, check out this for unlucky earlier
So was playing around again today trying different things when I noticed this game on Betfair, GrlFK we're 1 nil up when I seen this game, the other team had a red card, but I didn't look proper, and thinking GrlFK had the red card I layed them for £20 @ odds of 1.18, £3.60 liability, my thinking being that down to 10 men I'd take advantage of the low lay odds, upon realising my mistake of them not having the red card and it being the other team, I quickly cashed out for a 35p loss, it wasn't till later on when I started getting notifications of goals from Betfair that I seen that if I had of left it I'd have gotten my full £20 cos my lay bet would have won, as much as it's unlucky I can still laugh at it and what it could've been.
