*****New Football Thread*****
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@mick-mcmahon just scanning here and 3.5 goal market can be good. Also fhg 1.5 goal market. You could find success in more markets too. Make sure you get consistent minimum odds/odds range for your selections.
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@Akiva-Anderson great post mate, I have a feeling you’ll do it. I’m nowhere near your level and been at this 2-3 years. 1.5 years in earnest I’d say and only now am I really starting to understand and manage all the many facets there are to being successful at trading and finally settling on how I want to do it, which strategies I love to run etc. particularly having faith in the mathematics of a profitable strategy and the patience to let it evolve. Really, this is investing and should be treated as such.
Putting a few ideas together I’ve had in one new test using small stakes over the past 1-2 months I’ve made a 25% return on my bank and have hopefully found what I feel is great balance in a strategy.
When discussing this twice actually with my partner and most recently as part of discussions on savings accounts and returns and how those with money can use it to make a lot of money quickly compared to those who don’t. I said the returns on football/sport trading are potentially huge if you can learn to be profitable compared to any savings account and that’s why I started to learn how to trade, imagine if I’d had a bank to trade with £1000 stakes in this current test, that’s £25k already theoretically!
The answer I’ve had twice in a week to this is ‘yeah but you didn’t’. And, also added ‘I prefer playing it safe with savings’. I explained as I have many times, you only trade with what you can afford to lose, and explained the theory behind trading and how this strategy works at the moment.
I’ll be clear I could easily trade with far bigger stakes and that’s from the money I have specifically set aside to trade and test with, absolutely everything else expenses wise in my life is secured and covered. This is a long term plan for me and when it’s time and I’m ready with a strategy or two I’m more than Confident in I’ll begin to scale it up.
To be fair it’s true I’ll give her that, I don’t trade with a £100k bank, but that’s all I’m giving. Because my gut feeling both times is that’s a jealous response and pretty much sour grapes and perhaps a lack of understanding of what I like to think of as true patience. For a partner that has been really optimistic and supportive in the past of my trading this actually pissed me right off. What if, just what if it was actually £25k? Would I have got that type reaction? Or perhaps ‘well it’s not £250k is it?’
The return, bank increase percentage no matter the bank or stake size is what is important and if it works with a quid, it’ll work with 1000.
She is still supportive of me trading and has said I’ve put too much in to not continue to succeed. Too bloody right, and the irony of this is I’ve actually scaled back my volume and in doing so my trading is improving as a result. Hypothetically speaking If a trusted family member or close friend told you hey, I can show you how to make a +10% compounding return month on month on average you’d think the response would be at least an interest and at best real optimism?
Anyway it goes without saying I am more determined than ever to make this work and myself and as a bonus, an enviable trader. The longer I go on the closer I am to achieving the ultimate goal. Am I taking this personally? Oh Yeah, in a competitive way, I calmly and politely tucked this one away, and I have learned to take a strange liking to negative comments sent my way as they’re nothing but more motivation.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
The Obos-Ligaen in Norway is phenomenal for FHG. So far this season, 90% of matches have a FHG. The German Bundesliga was 79% and the English Premiership was 75%. Surprisingly, the A-League was only 71%
Odds for a FHG in the Obos-Ligaen have been around 1.30 pre kick-off
Give me 1.3 on a 90% chance anyday.
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@Akiva-Anderson out of interest, what market do you use for fhg?
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The Obos-Ligaen in Norway is phenomenal for FHG. So far this season, 90% of matches have a FHG. The German Bundesliga was 79% and the English Premiership was 75%. Surprisingly, the A-League was only 71%
Odds for a FHG in the Obos-Ligaen have been around 1.30 pre kick-off
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Akiva-Anderson good luck with this and great write up! Following with interest
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A little update from myself:
I'm still working, albeit part-time. I think I work around 25 hours per week. I really enjoy the work / life balance. I feel happier.
My wife doesn't want me to leave work and I'm certainly not pushing to leave, but I would like it as an option. I asked her what it would take to prove to her that trading works. She said if I could turn £100 into £10,000 within one year then I could quit work.
I decided to try this challenge!
To do this I need to make roughly 10% of my starting bankroll each week. At the end of 'Week 2' (yesterday) my balance should be £121. It is currently £143.20. This is despite a lack of football.
My biggest worry was starting this at the end of the current football season, but football doesn't really end this season. We have the Euros starting in about 10 days. We have football in Norway, Sweden, Ireland and Brazil. We have Champions League, Europa League & Conference League matches starting in July. We have the Scottish League Cup starting in July (great for goals). The Winter leagues start back in August and we have the football at the Olympics in August too. Basically, football has a two week break.
So why do this challenge? For me it is simple. Just like businesses do 'stress tests' - trading is going to be my business. It would be remiss of me not to engage with it. I also want to prove to others that if I somehow lost everything, I could start with a meagre £100 and work it into something meaningful.
Makes you think
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Arran-Shackell 2nd vote for Nord...although I could still access Betfair with mobile data in France. It was blocked on the accommodation wifi...
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@Arran-Shackell I used NordVPN when I was in Spain last year with no trouble at all
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Could someone recommend a phone VPN please to get on betfair abroad?
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@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alex-Rule was also looking at the markets for final tonight. Not an offer, but thought the odds on under 3.5 goals at 1.49 looked decent.
However, not sure if I’ll even do it myself as backing unders does spoil the enjoyment of the game a little
good shout, these finals are often tight affairs!
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@Alex-Rule was also looking at the markets for final tonight. Not an offer, but thought the odds on under 3.5 goals at 1.49 looked decent.
However, not sure if I’ll even do it myself as backing unders does spoil the enjoyment of the game a little
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@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:
I have added a liability column to my Lay strats for tracking and adjusted the ROI to reflect the total liability as opposed to stakes (which I have kept for my backing strats)
Thanks again
Love this!
