*****New Football Thread*****

Greg Mitchell

@Akiva-Anderson This is very interesting and I have been trying to set myself something similar and get more disciplined, couple of questions if you don't mind.

To make 10% per day from a starting bank of £100, what stakes/liability have you started off with and do you intend on sticking with the same stake %?

Do you intend on stopping for the day once you have hit. the 10%?

If you have a few losing days on the trot, and you are behind your target do you try and recover that or stick to the 10% of whatever your balance is?

Akiva Anderson

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson I was trying to work this out for a friend the other day as we always talk about my head being in the clouds

Do you not pay betfair premium charge yet? Surely this impacts?

No, nowhere near it yet. Used to be you had to make £250k. I used Betfair well before I started trading, when I was a gambler! Probably lost about £50k over the years. So I have to make £300k before I pay the premium charge. Unless it’s changed?

The premium charge will either decrease or disappear in the future. However, for this to happen, Betfair needs a competitor.

Patrik Mellqvist

@Ryan
@Chris-King

Hello again - I just want to add one last thing about owning physical gold coins and having them in a deposit safe with an insurance contract.

This is an optimal way for independent economic sports trading life - because it has one extra function and that is you can not get a loan in the bank when you make tax-free money from trading as the bank would never have you as a customer with reference as independent gambler/sport-trader.

So if you for some reason need to take a loan you can not go to the bank - but if you like me have over one year of income invested in Gold Coins (not bars) you can take a loan at the pawn shop on your assets.
Is not a cheap loan, but is manageable and in my country, the monthly interest is 2%.

I don't know any reason why anyone would like to take a loan - but life can be unpredictable sometimes you might have been sick for a longer period and not been able to trade and you might not have been saving for insurance or put aside money for this life-changing situations as an independent economical trader.

Then is a good thing to have physical Gold Coins as assets for more reasons than one.
That is the reason I also added Ryan's name to this reply because I would like to hear if he plans for such a situation and put aside a special account or money - for example vacation break or sickness period.

Cheers

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson I was trying to work this out for a friend the other day as we always talk about my head being in the clouds

Do you not pay betfair premium charge yet? Surely this impacts?

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson I'm finally on the right track myself. I've often considered I'd like to try and do a Maria turning 3k into 100k by the end of 12 months but I think I'll need to draw so it won't happen!

Good luck with yours mate

Chris King

@Akiva-Anderson Yeah I’ve had similar, and nicely put. To be honest nowadays i don’t draw too much attention from others to my trading.

Chris King

@Patrik-Mellqvist Thanks for sharing this. I’ll be honest i am not an expert on traditional investing but what you’ve explained does make complete logical sense. This sounds very similar to property investment too, investing in physical assets, but i imagine the two are still very different. I have bookmarked your post

Chris King

@Ryan Cheers Ryan, and of course good points on the pension money..they will get their tax money from you one way or another given the chance. In this life if you have something worth having, whether you’ve worked your fingers to the bone for it or not, there will ALWAYS be someone that want’s to take it from you.

mick mcmahon

@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@mick-mcmahon One of the things that helped me understand goals and if there was one coming was...

Watching lower league football - it moves slower and mistakes aren't punished as often or as quick as top level BUT the patterns are usually similar so it gives you more chances to spot the mistakes.

Goals come from this:

Mistakes

1 player doing something amazing

2 players doing something good

Thats where the lower league comes in on mistakes you can spot the mistakes easier, then it does move up but in the premier league for example a left back might make the mistake 2 times and theres a goal, it might be 5-6 times in the lower leagues.

1 player doing something great, when researching the players see if any of them have the touch of this in their locker...

2 players - again you need somebody who can get in positions to score, somebody who can unlock defences. When you research this as well it helps because when you are watching the game you can see if it's actually happening, for example Bruno at united it great at doing good things, his passes into the box are good very good. Main is also good at getting on the end of them... so if you start to see this happening it helps understand it.

I also like to look at a few of the stats...

1st to score

1st to concede

These help me watch the teams and question the attacks and the defence as a whole.

Also I like Avg shots per goal... not always that accurate as freak shots and things happen but it helps me keep a tally of X team scores first 80% of the time and they score 1 goal on avg every 7 shots... say its 10 shots in the game I am now feeling more confident.

I hope that's not just bored you and you got some value in that.

No that's really good info.
It's funny, depending on where you are in your "journey", you can read the same thing at different times but get completely different value from it.

Ryan

@mick-mcmahon One of the things that helped me understand goals and if there was one coming was...

Watching lower league football - it moves slower and mistakes aren't punished as often or as quick as top level BUT the patterns are usually similar so it gives you more chances to spot the mistakes.

Goals come from this:

Mistakes
1 player doing something amazing
2 players doing something good

Thats where the lower league comes in on mistakes you can spot the mistakes easier, then it does move up but in the premier league for example a left back might make the mistake 2 times and theres a goal, it might be 5-6 times in the lower leagues.

1 player doing something great, when researching the players see if any of them have the touch of this in their locker...

2 players - again you need somebody who can get in positions to score, somebody who can unlock defences. When you research this as well it helps because when you are watching the game you can see if it's actually happening, for example Bruno at united it great at doing good things, his passes into the box are good very good. Main is also good at getting on the end of them... so if you start to see this happening it helps understand it.

I also like to look at a few of the stats...

1st to score
1st to concede

These help me watch the teams and question the attacks and the defence as a whole.

Also I like Avg shots per goal... not always that accurate as freak shots and things happen but it helps me keep a tally of X team scores first 80% of the time and they score 1 goal on avg every 7 shots... say its 10 shots in the game I am now feeling more confident.

I hope that's not just bored you and you got some value in that.

Ryan

@Martin RMAP is the name of it on HL Its the royal mint physical gold one.

mick mcmahon

@Akiva-Anderson I fail so hard at that. If there is a lot of attacking I presume there will be a goal, if it's quiet I presume not...

I need your brain, in filter form

ross love

@Martin Vaneck

Akiva Anderson

@mick-mcmahon said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson that's a great start! It's not just discipline though, you either need the football and/or a great selection process/filter.

I'm lucky enough to be able to watch a game and predict a SHG

Martin

@Ryan which ETF do you use?

Ryan

@Patrik-Mellqvist I buy gold every month, I have a good ETF for it.

It's performed really well, thing for me is that when inflation is high gold has historically performed well.

(not financial advice!)

mick mcmahon

@Akiva-Anderson that's a great start! It's not just discipline though, you either need the football and/or a great selection process/filter.

Akiva Anderson

Week 1: £100 - £110 (26th May 2024)
Week 2: £110 - £121 (02nd June 2024)
Week 3: £121 - £133.10 (09th June 2024)
Week 4: £133.10 - £146.41 (16th June 2024)
Week 5: £146.41 - £161.05 (23rd June 2024)
Week 6: £161.05 - £177.15 (30th June 2024)
Week 7: £177.15 - £194.86 (07th July 2024)
Week 8: £194.86 - £214.34 (14th July 2024)
Week 9: £214.34 - £235.77 (21st July 2024)
Week 10: £235.77 - £259.34 (28th July 2024)
Week 11: £259.34 - £285.27 (04th August 2024)
Week 12: £285.27 - £313.79 (11th August 2024)
Week 13: £313.79 - £345.16 (18th August 2024)
Week 14: £345.16 - £379.67 (25th August 2024)
Week 15: £379.67 - £417.63 (01st September 2024)
Week 18: £417.63 - £459.39 (08th September 2024)
Week 19: £459.39 - £505.32 (15th September 2024)
Week 20: £505.32 - £555.85 (22nd September2024)
Week 21: £555.85 - £611.43 (29th September 2024)
Week 22: £611.43 - £672.57 (06th October 2024)
Week 23: £672.57 - £739.82 (13th October 2024)
Week 24: £739.82 - £813.80 (20th October 2024)
Week 25: £813.80 - £895.18 (27th October 2024)
Week 26: £895.18 - £984.69 (03rd November 2024)
Week 27: £984.69 - £1083.15 (10th November 2024)
Week 28: £1083.15 - £1191.46 (17th November 2024)
Week 29: £1191.46 - £1310.60 (24th November 2024)
Week 30: £1310.60 - £1441.66 (01st December 2024)
Week 31: £1441.66 - £1585.82 (08th December 2024)
Week 32: £1585.82 - £1744.40 (15th December 2024)
Week 33: £1744.40 - £1918.84 (22nd December 2024)
Week 34: £1918.84 - £2110.72 (29th December 2024)
Week 35: £2110.72 - £2321.79 (05th January 2025)
Week 36: £2321.79 - £2553.96 (12th January 2025)
Week 37: £2553.96 - £2809.35 (19th January 2025)
Week 38: £2809.35 - £3090.28 (26th January 2025)
Week 39: £3090.28 - £3399.30 (02nd February 2025)
Week 40: £3399.30 - £3739.23 (09th February 2025)
Week 41: £3739.23 - £4113.15 (16th February 2025)
Week 42: £4113.15 - £4524.46 (23rd February 2025)
Week 43: £4524.46 - £4976.90 (02nd March 2025)
Week 44: £4976.90 - £5474.90 (09th March 2025)
Week 45: £5474.90 - £6022.35 (16th March 2025)
Week 46: £6022.35 - £6624.48 (23rd March 2025)
Week 47: £6624.48 - £7286.93 (30th March 2025)
Week 48: £7286.93 - £8015.62 (06th April 2025)
Week 49: £8015.62 - £8817.18 (13th April 2025)
Week 50: £8817.18 - £9698.89 (20th April 2025
Week 51: £9698.89 - £10668.77 (27th April 2025)
Week 52: £10668.77 - £11735.64 (04th May 2025)

Hopefully my dates and calculations are correct!

Anyway, I've a lot of work I want started next summer around my house. My wife is 40 in September and I've holidays I want to book! This should help!

Week 3 finishes on Sunday, 09th June. My bank should be at £133.10. It is currently at £173.00.

This is just an insight on what you can do with very little money. Discipline is required!

Akiva Anderson

@Chris-King said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson We can’t and I don’t expect anyone to understand it, but the concept of a return on an investment is something I know she fully understands which was the frustrating part. You’re right though, when I discovered trading through matched betting it seemed like different language

My experience is that friends and family don't see this as 'investing'. They see it as 'gambling' and 'betting'. Once they hear 'Betfair' then all talk of 'investment' is lost

Patrik Mellqvist

@Chris-King
@Ryan

I don't want to give economic advice - but you talk about pensions and I just want to openly reflect on that with my life experience and conservative approach to the world and society development in the future.
So is a take or ignore reply with good-hearted intention.

Historical gold prices have risen and are steady.
Implicitly you will hedge profit when there is a worse economic development climate in the world and the society.
And you will see historically that those factors never improve decay after decay and always get worse.
So the statement that money always loses value over time is true.

Here is an example if i buy 24K Gold Coins for £10000 I know they will have the same value one decay later.
And i know the value will be greater one decay later because of historical data.
Implicitly states that as the value of money will be less or that you get less for £10 one decay later then today.
Also, make the value of Gold higher as it never loses in value and can not be printed digitally or on paper as money that boost the weakness into the world economic climate.

I would choose all days in the week - then the market - because diversification and a good portfolio will not achieve above 7% long-term and 30% tax if not considering special accounts and savings options.
Is not the same risk mitigation approach as gold.

And one last thing - all investments that you not can buy insurance for is bad investments.
The market has no insurance to buy - but gold has and deposit safes have.

Just wanted to mention this as you talk about stocks and pensions.
And in some countries, you have the right to a minimum pension from the state no matter how little or how much you have been working during your lifetime - maybe check that out to see what number the paycheck has.
From there you can estimate and calculate how much you need to put aside to get safe and comfortable when growing old if you choose life as an economically independent trader.

Cheers Patrik From Sweden