Team Simmonds Journal!
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Firstly, I'm not doing this journal for you! you know what, I'm OK if someone finds inspiration or answers from my success or failure as a profitable BTC member! then I'm ok with that!
And yeah, that's the goal, to be successful, profitable & I've decided to go public (Like one of Ryan's Ninga's that operates in the sunshine rather than the shadows) and share a my own journal notes!
The plan is to post here at least weekly, on 9th Jan I wrote!
9 Jan 23!
My name's Neal, I'm 65 in June this year, So why is this year going to be any better than any of the other shitty year's that I said the same thing? vis-à-vis “This year will be different”So, I took the plunge and on 6th Jan 23 joined the Betfair Trading Community, something I’ve promised myself I would do for a long time now and I must say it’s not just the stats software that’s blown me away! It’s the whole set-up, the professionalism and the commitment from the guys who run she show! And the feeling that you just might be a part of something bigger!
Ryan’s Super Trader Course:
Step 1 -
a. Bank! So the Bank is pretty fluid & buoyant, but I'm no gambler! the amount I commit depends on how many strategies I'll have running, but the golden ruler for me will be to never commit more than 1% of the bank to any one position!
(Been There & it wasn't pretty)b. What has to happen? For the trade to be profitable:
1 I need my trade to be profitable.
2 If I bet & forget I need the wins to off-set the losses and then some!
3 I need to record the trades in order to track results & P/L.
4 I need to analyse the results especially when they are different from expected.
5 I need to identify possible issues for future trading.
6 I may need to learn more about what’s going on with the price action.Action 1.1 - The Gap
The gap between where I am now and where I want to be!
Well, in my view you will never reach enlightenment! because end points are always fluid and is shrouded like a mountain top peak! When you thought you were almost there, the cloud reveals there’s a way to go yet!
But obviously the guidelines you get from having a direction are invaluable, lets face it you want to be as close to the peak as you can be right?
Right now, to be honest, I’m not sure where I am because up until now it’s been a bit like being lost as sea! Not really being sure where you are & not really sure which way to go to get to where you want to be even though you might have some idea of where that is, you’re being buffeted along by the tide & the waves, you’re not really in control?Up until now, the goal has been based on to make this endeavour viable by earning some money doing something I might enjoy where I didn’t have to grind my fingers to the bone or break my back in the effort! Or have sleepless nights because the mind is never really switching off!
Money is a factor but for me it’s a lifestyle thing, I guess! My aim is to have an income from trading & betting and from other forms of investment, so that I can compromise a bit less on my choices in life, I’ve always said that the aim is to retire with some dignity, well dignity costs money buddy! However you measure it holidays, weekends away, even just going to events such as a couple of days at a race meeting, the clothes you wear & what you give away!
In order to have that, I need to be successful and it would be lovely to earn a good income tax free from profitable betting/trading, be able to trade a number of strategies and understand the price action prior to an event!
I’m committed to this, for the first time in my life I have a bank, the time & the commitment all at the same time!Step 1 Summary:
Where am I now? In the doldrums, not really moving in any particular direction! I’m not proficient enough with Betfair, software/bots or profitable strategies! But my years of being an analyst, I’m sure; will stand me in good stead!
Set & forget! Is really where I’m comfortable, so the first aim is to do some testing on the current published profitable strategies! And to get familiar with bots!I’ve had a play in the Strategy Bunker, I’m impressed! First impressions are that I’ll have a spare 20 hrs a week on my hands! At least.
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Sunday 30 Dec 2023.
Seems strange that this may be the last time I enter 2023 on anything! Happy new year if you're reading this!
So, No trading today, went out for food with my oldest, +25.89 points this week, a nervy 4 days where I only got back to staking my usual 2.5 points yesterday.Been having problems since the big loss! I seem to have lost the courage of my convictions a little? had I not, I might be more points up this week but taking 15 points from Friday with no big losers this week has made the week look ok.
Looking foreword to next year it's going to be more of the same until March when I'll close my years accounts and reset for the next business year! The hope is that I can be profitable by then? As far as BTC is concerned, I'm still having a crisis of confidence with the strategies and I also don't like being tied to a position where it becomes a chore? I like the freedom of not having to trade if I don't feel good or if there's something more important to do!
I'm teaching the kids that when they play their games on the Switch or PS5 they must collect all of the loot, Tommy is well trained and if asked he will tell you the most important thing is to "Collect all the money"
I want them to learn that money is very important, not as important as family or health & well-being but having it gives you access to other things which are very important like good nutrition, education, possessions etc. etc.Anyway, I've managed t claw back to -38 points since 7th July 2023 and if I can cut the losses or even just the big ones, I should be profitable by the end of the trading year (3 Apr 2024).
If I'm not, I'll have to re-think!
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Sunday 24 Dec 2023.
So this week started slow, had other fish to fry this week and progress was a bit slow one bad day blew the week for me and I finished +1.9 points.It was particularly irritating that it was a mistake that led to a 17 point loss that blew the week out of the water!
I've been trying to get away from the one click where you're not guaranteed to get the price you click, so I've been entering a position with confirmation! Anyway, I had the 'confirmation' switched off & hit the wrong horse! boom the lay went in on the wrong runner which went on to win! I find that a bit hard to swallow.The official accounts from 3 July 2023 show me down £106.97, I'm going to spend the day today trying to identify where I'm not getting it right!
I'll set up the account sheet for next year & the plan is to continue with the lay betting even though we have not found a way of tying BTC Software into the selection process.
I do constantly think about whether to continue with this whole business? but I am convinced that I will eventually be profitable, I just hope its before the bank runs dry!
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@Neal-Simmonds sorry to hear that! at least you are aware of how to change it, even if it's not easily done!
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17 Dec 2023.
Those profits all went south this week, it was a bad week for me! -60 points on the week after 2 very bad days! the disappointing thing is that the 2nd of the two was of my own making!
'I laid a horse that was first off the bridal at a high liability (Not the first time this method has bitten me), it was looking for all the world as if it would win on a contested run in and just before the line, I compounded the issue and laid the other runner, which then went on to win at a big big cost'I'm still trying to make it happen instead of waiting for it to happen and on the odd occasion it turns around and bites your hand off!
I must be more disciplined and do my homework! problem I have is that I cant seem to tie in making the race selections using the BTC software! I have to perhaps accept that I must look through the cards to make my selections.
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@Neal-Simmonds lots of weird bugs going around at the moment, well done on the profit that's great to hear!
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10 Dec 2023.
+23 Points + commission this week! A good week!
I couldn't trade yesterday due to suffering some mystery illness? Had a couple of slice of toast at about 12.00 midday, started doing some washing up, sat down to set up the trading and 'Boom' I was hit with a massive dizzy spell, my balance was completely out of whack, then the sickness started, Nathan called NHS24 where it was a 60 min wait for the answer, he called 999 & they said "You wouldn't get an ambulance today"
I think the NHS is just 'A' Typical of this broken Britain!
Spent the afternoon in bed between bouts of sickness! then about 11pm I drank half a cup of cold coffee & ate a banana which I managed to hold down!
Still feeling dizzy today, (Not as bad as yesterday) but had some scrambled eggs & toast just now & fingers crossed it stays down!
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So, +10 points this week which I should be happy with I know, but I was on course for more until a disastrous -17 day rubbished the week a little!
+10 points is not rubbish I know, and every step in the right direction is, well; a step in the right direction!
On the home front, we still have no dinner table, we did get curtains up in the living room this week and ordered up a beautiful 65" OLED TV which is due for delivery this coming Wednesday! expensive yes but I might actually be able to identify the runners in-play!
I'm still unsure if greening up might cost more than it benefits in the long run & I'm mindful that if you're going to green up, you need to learn how to red up too?
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26 Nov 2023.
A good week! +26 points breaking down into 3 good days, 2 scratch & 1 poor day!
The positive thing was 3 profit guaranteed trades today netting 6 points on basically price action!
I'm still trading with a bit of fear though, I've started being a bit more conservative about what price I'll take meaning a bit more risk but a lot less liability! I've also traded out of a few positions for small losses when I wasn't liking what I was seeing! (As it happens, all would have gone on to be winning trades). Protecting the bank takes a more prominent place in my mind!
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22 Nov 2023.
A scratch week last week & no trading at the weekend as my pal Gary drove up from Portsmouth for the weekend! Really good to get together with him, he's dealing with his loss remarkably well, (I think better than I could have).
Anyway, +12 points this week so far! a really good day today & lets hope the good fortune continues!
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13 Nov 2023.
Didn't trade on Saturday, had a day out at Kelso races, we didn't pick a winner but had a pretty good day of it.
Sunday I had one trade which came in for a few quid, cover some commission. Spent the rest of the day with my eldest who's having some problems in life.So, finished the week up slightly! lets call it an even week eh!
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9 Nov 2023.
+5.5 Points. You know what? I think the stream was slightly in front of the price action today? or maybe it was something to do with Fairbot! Anywho... A good day which puts me on +2 points for this week! Happy with that.
Pretty straight foreword today, opportunities presented themselves, there were a few risks I could have taken (which would have all paid off) but hindsight is an exact science eh!
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8 Nov 2023.
+4.3 Points. So I'm hoping I've found a happy medium on the staking front? Betting to a point and having low risk but high liability cost me heavily when I had the 110 point loser! but setting liability to 5 points wasn't working for me as the wins were very small (quarter of a point & even less) but the losses were still 5 points!
So, today I went back to my usual strategy but set the stake to a half point! Now, it could be that we now have a super fast connection or that at £5.00 you don't click at 15 but get filled at 115 (or it could be a bit of both)
Anyway, that puts me about -3.5 points for this week!
It should have been more but in the last 3 days I've had 3 rogue bets! I thought it was where I was swiping the mouse pad to another screen whilst the pointer was on the grid, but the last one I did cashed out a bet that would have won, for a £17 loss.
And it was because we still don't have a table!I should explain: I'm perched on the printer box and as I was moving the mouse across I bumped the laptop which was enough to press the mouse button! Doh!!
Anyway, not feeling as wrapped in remorse as yesterday, Took the car over to Kelso for the repairs this morning and wasn't at the rush when I got back, had a soak when I got back and was feeling ok.
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7 Nov 2023.
-9.2 Points.
I guess I should have known after 2 straight losing trades that it was not going to be my day!
I feel like s**t, and have some serious decisions to make!
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6 Nov 2023.
+2 points.
So, today was my first day back for what? 3 weeks! We have been so busy with the move and all that goes with it. There's still lots to do and to be honest, I've been quite happy to be not trading! I almost felt duty bound to get back to it today though!
So, changes I've implemented since the last disaster on the Lay's.
firstly, the new super fast broadband 900mb is performing very well, there seems to be less lag than I remember. Secondly I've set my liability to 5 points! so as to prevent taking odds which lead to disastrous outcomes should a runner for any reason come back to win from a big drift in the market.Ironically, todays loss cost me 5 points whereas under the old 1 points staking it would have been less than half of that, it was the biggest gamble of the day however and I finished penny's over 2 points up and just for a bit more Irony, under the old staking system I would have been up about 10 points today!
It's still a work in progress!
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Having spent the last week painting, decorating & otherwise lifting & shifting, today was a tentative re-start for trading! I've set a liability limit of 5 points, the super fast broad band goes active on Friday at the new address but I think we'll be busy busy busy, especially since we have the kids this weekend!
Back to today! +2.5 points! Setting the liability limit is preventing me from jumping on some of the picks I would normally take at a higher price! High liability but low risk! Only time will tell how this will work out!
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12 Oct 2023.
So, I'm not going to pretend that such a terrible week didn't knock me sideways! I went from +120 points to -16 points in a week, mostly due to one disastrous trade which did not go on at the price I clicked!
I'm now -26 points for the 3 months from 7th July 2023, I've ordered the fastest broadband connation I can get at the new house, so from the 19th I'll have super fast fibre 900. My hope is that my lag between clicking and a position going into the market will be XX times faster! and the price I've ordered might still be available!
I've also set a liability limit now of 5 points, so I'm not going to profit as much, but disasters might just be averted!
No trading today or for the rest of the weekend as we're painting, decorating, flooring, curtain hanging and all the other stuff that goes with moving into an empty bare property!
I really thought that I had found my niche! as far as trading is concerned, there is nothing positive to say right now! I just need to re-group and start again!
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6 Oct 2023.
Disaster struck! I lost all of the profit I've made since 7th July and then some! I've not got to the bottom of it yet but I'm looking at about 135 point down! It was from a disastrous Lay Bet which I think due to the lag on my connection went in at a much bigger price than I clicked on and then came back to win!
To make matters worse I then started trying to create the opportunities in stead of waiting for them to occur.
Anyway, not quite back to square one but I'm taking time off now to a). get my head straight and b). paint the new house!
Comeback is pending!
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30 September 2023.
So a cheeky 11 points today, not too shabby when I didn't plan to trade today!
So that's about 19 points on the week!We're planning on some painting & decorating tomorrow, Carpet fitter measuring up on Wednesday! Kids over for dinner on Tuesday & Thursday and between all that we have Broadband, Council, Gas & Electric and all the host of other services to sort! Not to mention the full gamut of furniture & kitchen appliances to acquire!
Busy Busy Busy!
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So, I got back on the horse Monday & made a casual 8 points! @Martin Yes buddy, its my middle name
No trading yesterday as we went to go look at a property! And today was a scratch day! well, minus less than a point!
To be honest I did really well to finish almost even! After already saying I would avoid the 2YO short distance races, I went and took a position on the 6f Nursery race which went against me! Stupid is!Tomorrow I'll be trading the horses again and that might be the last day for a while as Nathan picks up his keys at 10am and we start cleaning & prep for painting, prep the floors for Laminate & Carpets!
Its going to be all hands to the pumps to get stuff ordered in (When I say all hands I mean 2 sets).
Busy Busy Busy!
