Team Simmonds Journal!
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5 May 2023.
It's been pretty shaky the last couple of weeks, I'm still not profitable but I do feel like I've moved a bit further towards being a trader! What I'm doing now on a daily basis feels much more intuitive and, well; natural? I did lose faith a little back there, but I'm back on the strategy software and I have some belief back.Some of the losses I've suffered in the last few days, are down to me pushing too hard & trying to make a silk purse from a sows arse! and bets boing in at prices they shouldn't have been doing! I'm going to have to learn more about how Fairbot can lay a pick at odds which are outside the range specified in the 'conditions'? it might be something to do with the 'Best Lay Odds' selection? I'm going to have to reach out to the community on this amongst other things.
Which reminds me, I'm going to have to try to become a better member of the community! I've been so wrapped up in my own bubble lately that I forget there's a whole bunch of people out there who have gone, going or been through what I'm going through now!
In the meantime, I'm back on the strategy software looking for answers!
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So, after that very disappointing and damaging loss-making day, the last 2 days have gone exactly to plan! I planned not to work yesterday, my weights bench buyer turned up a bit early & that was packed away & gone by tea time.
The fair (They call it the shows up here) is in town for the Gala weekend, the common riding is Saturday but we watched from my window as maybe 50 riders walked their mount's into town, then we took the kids to the shows & had a real good blast! Tommy wasn't sure about it last year but he really enjoyed it this time around. Mia ran into her best pal Hadleigh & it was really good to see the kids having a good time.Today, (As planned) I've given the living room a damned good clean up, broke out the carpet cleaner & shifted a few things around, & after it was done I felt really good. I think there's something very satisfying and therapeutic about giving a room or a car a damned good clean!
I've had some thoughts about what I might have done wrong on Wednesday so I made a few tweaks to the bot I used to trigger the bets, and the early results are looking good!
The main problem was that close finishing & photo finishes gave me a big issue, mainly that I might end up with a lay position on both! So, I've set the bot to go by back position, meaning it will only trigger once even if there is a change of position? I've also taken out the favourite position, so shouldn't get any positions on the favourite, previously I could!I'll do some foreword testing again tomorrow and see if I can find these strategies in Martins video, I might have to go back to the video because I couldn't see all of them in the pre-set's!
Its going to take time, but I'm going to get my money back!
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29 June 2023.
So, it might be that my confidence was misplaced, or that the last 2 days were just particularly bad? I'm still trying to figure that out!
Mon was a fantastic day 35 points up and feeling great, Tuesday 35 points down & feeling Hey-Ho! but yesterday was disastrous, 100 points down! and the worst thing about it is that I don't know what I was doing differently yesterday, than any other day! Maybe I was triggering the trades too soon, or maybe the price range just didn't work but that's made a hole in my bank, its a big set-back for me.
Today was supposed to be a day off trading as I've got someone coming over to collect the weights bench & weights & I wanted to re-arrange the living room once its gone so, today is now a test day where I'm going to attempt to figure out how the hell I'm triggering trades on the line in photo finishes when the odds don't appear to go into my range? Funny how testing and reality never seem to align.
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@Neal-Simmonds amazing that's what we like to hear!
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27 June 2023.
In the last 7 days I've enjoyed 6 profitable days and just the one red day, its the red day I think which I'm strangely most surprised about; don't get me wrong, I'm not in any way in an expectation that I should win every day, its more to do with how I felt that red day. Loss has been one of the difficult things for me to deal with physiologically, its difficult to explain because I don't fully understand it myself? All I know is that I feel much better about a loss, there's more of an acceptance of it and I think it might be something to do with the fact that the way I'm trading now, is completely different than it was a few months ago.
I've moved om from pre-off set & forget positions to placing trades in-play! it is a much more time consuming and hands-on approach which I have experimented with automating with some success, but the best result's have come when I'm manually trading the price action and in the last 7 days I've had very good results!
Going back to the part of this journey where I joined BTC and stepped through Ryan's Super Trader Course, understanding the price action in-play was one of the area's I needed to learn more about, and in my opinion, I've taken a massive step foreword, to the point that I'm no longer setting & forgetting any more! I'm trading one strategy now, in-play and manually trading the price action.
I traded for about 6 hours yesterday matching on 58 positions in 26 Markets (I had others that did not match) but during the day I was able to have a window cleaning session, clean up the weights bench & weights, & get them up for sale of Facebook, have a walk to the shop for a few bits I needed to prepare dinner for the 2 of us, and I still made a very healthy profit.
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@Neal-Simmonds that's so great to hear! Well done mate, huge step forward!
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20 June 2023.
I think its pretty obvious to anyone who has read my journal entries that I struggle with the psychology of what it is we're all trying to do. more to the point its the psychology of taking the losses I've struggled with.
I don't exactly feel ecstatic about the winning, but losing just makes me feel sick!Recently though, I feel like I've taken a big step foreword, perhaps a huge step? When I joined BTC, I followed the steps, I put a lot of hours into learning the horse racing software (I've still not done much on the footy side of things) but when I went through Ryan’s Super Trader Course, I listed the things that need to happen and #6. I may need to learn more about what’s going on with the price action.
We recently started looking at an in-play lay system which has the massive strike it needs to be profitable, we've been testing for a while, and went live with it yesterday, it was a profitable day but that's not really the point! The point is that I have found myself executing Ryan's Super Trader Step 2 – In-Play Trading and whilst I'm not expecting to continue with a 100% strike rate its a big step in becoming the profitable trader I intend to be!
In-spite of Nathan's split with Lisa, both being crammed into my one bed flat, not seeing the grandkids as much as I used to, and living in crisis Britain where you're never far from the next s**t storm, I feel I've turned a corner and it was a glorious day, no s**t storm, just a gentle breeze & a lovely warming glow.
I am mindful that the more trades that go my way results in an escalating probability the the next one will go against me, but for now, I'm enjoying the feeling that this is going to work!
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12 June 2023.
I must apologise to anyone following the 'Lay The Beaten Favourite 2.0' Pre-Set strategy! I decided to have a go at it yesterday & today and of course, its been disastrous!
I would be happy to go back to the drawing board & start over with my backing strategies, but I know if I stop now! They will start to turn a profit! but I'm in a real catch 22 here because I also know I have the power to make any favourites lose simply by backing it!
Today is not over yet, there is still more money to lose so I'd best get back to it.
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9 June 2023.
I know Mark can sometimes be a frightful bore as well as an annoying oaf, but we've had a really good time here! Right foot is swollen & in a little discomfort & my legs generally have been a little inflamed after we did the Cumbrian Way walk on Thursday, I think the knee strapping stopping the skin from breathing might have something to do with that? Mark says it was 15 miles but I'm pretty sure it was more like 11.
There's a really nice little 'Honesty Café' at Skiddaw House, completely empty building & you're on trust to pay for the tea & biscuits you took.
Yesterday we took a drive to the south end of Windemere had afternoon cream tea followed by a very reasonably priced Gin Tree, 3 different flavoured Gin's with tonic £20 at a very posh hotel where I might have expected to pay more!
Traveling home today & might be back in time to do some more testing on the lay the field in-play bot!
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6 June 2023.
I still can't believe that Mark & I arrived in Windemere within 1 minute of each other on Friday 2nd, despite traveling from 450 miles apart! Him by car from Portsmouth & me on the busses from Galashiels we could not have planned it better.He was worried Saturday morning that he would not hit anything on the clay Pidgeon shoot, I hit about 50% & he hit a couple more than I did, unbelievable, mind you that's because I don't have an eye dominance! So when I shoot with one eye, I'm not really seeing the target where it actually is! I never was a great shot!
Sunday we walked around Ennerdale Water there was a bit of scrambling over rocky bits up and down you couldn't really call it rock climbing? I think we got ourselves off the beaten route but we still made the 6 & 1/2 miles in about 4hrs! including plenty of stops to view the scenery, I have to admit I was suffering a bit at the end though!
Yesterday we had a day sailing on Windemere! & that's where Mark becomes a bit difficult for me to tolerate! Firstly there was hardly any wind! & what there was, was swirling & changing direction, at least it was when he had the tiller! when it was me steering he was constantly bitching about course & direction! I felt like knocking him overboard! We had a few drinks afterwards & cleared the air I think he saw my point of view!
I punished him today though, we rode around Coniston Water on a couple of mountain bikes, he had asked me to get electric assisted ones but I just ordered a couple of bog standard peddle power ones, we made the 14 mile round trip in time but he was hurting pretty bad! (He's slept for about 5 hours this afternoon)
My turn to hurt tomorrow as we attempt a walk around 'Skiddaw' past white-water-dash and on the Pennine Way! were not sure how far we will get but it could be 15 miles if we make it all the way back to the car?
Not been trading at all since Thursday last week! Heading home on Friday 9th so, I'll be back in the game perhaps Saturday.
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@Neal-Simmonds tell you what you lot don't half have eventful lives!
That 50/1 winner wow!
Nice work.
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30 May 2023.
Forgive me Father for I have sinned? Its been 10 days since my last confession! and I said I would make an entry at least once a week!
Well, its been a bit of a hectic week, Nathan & Lisa split up so he's sofa surfing at my place, his car exhaust went bang and its a dealer job to fix it at over £1000 so we've been bodging that up so we can gel the car off, I've stuck him on my insurance so he can use the car to get around, he's also been signed off work with some shoulder & chest issues! And on top of that he now needs somewhere to live where he has room for the kids when he has them overnight.
My trip next week to Windemere is looming, that's this Friday 2nd, I don't think I can trade while I'm there? It's just going to have to be a week off.
Trading has been difficult! The strategies I'm trading have not been performing as they say they should & I'm in danger of falling into a trap of thinking I cant miss a trading day in case its a wining day that I seem to desperately need & that's not where I want to be at? Things were made a bit easier yesterday when a C& D Long Shot came in at 50/1 and it made me 30 points! Boom
I'm still working on strategies, some of the active ones are turning a profit & some aren't & I think its down to just a turn-around of the fortunes of trends within a strategy?
As I've said before, I've seen a +ROI in 2021 turn into a -ROI in 2022 where the only change in the strategy is the date range? and some of these swings are big! it scares me a bit but whatever the strategy results show, you still need a bit of luck! and in my life the only luck that's played a part is bad luck! least that's how it seems.
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20 May 2023.
If I have a good day its 1 maybe 2 points & I think to myself "If we could do this for 200 days out of a year there's 200 points right there! But then when I have a poor day it takes away 10 days worth of good days.
Today was a really bad day! The back bets all lost, the lay bets all won! It really bothers! -12 points.
The other big difference here is that when I have a good +1 or 2 day I don't feel ecstatic, but when I have a bad day, I feel completely gutted!The last runner today Harry The Norseman in the 19:35 Hcp Chase at Uttoxeter was all green and at the last fence boom! he unseated the rider by jinking off course, I took my eye off him for a split second so I'm not sure if the eventual winner may have interfered with him & their saying it might be a disqualification but that wont help us!
Gutted.
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17 May 2023.
Yeah I know its been more than a week since my last journal entry, I'm not going to make up any excuses but I wanted to have something positive to say! I have been reviewing the strategies after the confidence had taken a knock! but I got bogged down with strategies coming out of my ears! because I ended up with so many I was giving some the same names when they would merge with something with that same very annoying, I ended up archiving most of what I had done, then bringing them back in turn as I named and numbered them! deleting or restoring when & where necessary! I now have about 40 activated strategies of which only a handful will produce picks on any given day, worst case scenario, would be that 6 meetings in a day all had different characteristics making 12 strategies active on that particular day!
Today for example was quite busy, I had 5 active strategies producing 18 events! of which 6 ended up outside of the rules! and from the 12 positions I took in the markets, I ended up 1.4 points!I got a little bogged down in strategies to be honest! I don't think I over complicated? but I definitely had to ramp up the administration! I've reverted to some old book keeping techniques so as to keep a better track on things.
Firstly I created a Schedule of Numbers sheet to record a base number for each strategy! I made a naming convention so all the strategies have the same flow and look E.G. I've numbered each race type so 2.1 for All Weather, 2.2 Chases, 2.3 Hurdle, 2.4 Turf I've then broken them into characteristics and given each characteristic a number Sharp, Undulating & so on, so a handicap All Weather race at say Wolverhampton which is 'Sharp' characteristic becomes 2.1.C2. UK Sharp Hcp AW Fav. The C2 is the key specifically for Sharp handicap & believe me when I say its simplified my growing list of strategies!I'm happy now that I can properly keep track of what's done & what's still to do! Where I don't have a strategy for backing a favourite is because the stats told me so or that I simple haven't got around to it. maybe its a single course strategy which is a bit of a luxury, the main thing is that I have all of the major ones done! I've listed them in my notes using the same naming conventions, and I'm in the process of creating bots (Fairbot's) as an when they are required!
The bots are named in the same way as the strategies so there can be no confusion!From the last 3 days of trading I'm roughly 4 points up with no loss making days (Which I know will happen).
This next week I'll continue to write strategies including Lay strategies where a back strategy can't work to my satisfaction! Some of those I've done have quite a bit of variance! but it is what it is!
I've neglected my fitness a little this last couple of weeks! missed the gym & swims for about 3 weeks now! not been sleeping to well, its all connected you know! I'll get back in that gym this week, I promise.
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@neal-simmonds great news!
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30 Apr 2023.
Its 5:30 am here! I'm still struggling to sleep, done all my chess moves & put the chocolate on the home made protein bars! I suppose I should go back to bed otherwise I'll be having to go during trading time? and on that front, what a difference a day makes! (or 2) I traded on Friday, still only with testing stakes but after my 'Woe is me' Thursday, Friday was an 8 point gain from 9 trades, 6 winners & Saturday 10 points from 15 trades 6 winners again!I'd like to think it was profitable strategies and all the work creating them which has began to bare fruit, but I'm just as aware that it could be just dumb luck? O if only I could control that!
It was a good feeling though!I did play around a bit with the specific dates again yesterday morning, I made versions of the strategies being used 2021, 2021 & 2023. I'm going to have to check them over as I go, I'm finding an increase in trades from 2021 to 2022, obviously the Covid debacle, the thing that worried me on some of the strategies was a complete & dramatic turn around of a trend in a few of the courses I checked?
E.G. I checked my Sharp All Weather strategy against the date ranges! Kempton had been the worst performing course for 2 years, then for in 2023 its the best in the group? I don't know if this is a peak in what is a long term downward trend for backing favourites at Kempton or if its a turning point!"2023. 44% SR, 6% ROI, £17.24 on 266 Trades Win/Loss 7/6
Looks like the year is off to a good start, Kempton has completely turned itself around and has been the best course this year? 24% ROI. Then its Chelmsford 16% Southwell 13% Lingfield 10% and Wolverhampton on -18%"Wolverhampton has been around the break even point for the previous 2 years!
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27 Apr 2023.
Having not traded today due the finding that anomaly I mentioned in my last entry (This morning). I've just checked the results for todays races that were picks and wouldn't you know it 6 of the 8 favourites won! 2 were odds-on so might not have been in but even then it would have been a profitable day!
I f*****g hate being me sometimes!
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27 Apr 2023.
Been honing my strategies for a while now & I've started playing around with the specific dates field! & it's throwing up a few anomalies, like a complete reversal of a trend?
All my strategy building so far has been using the full database going right back to 1 Jan 2021. I figured the more data the better? Well, I started playing with the dates to see what happens during certain 6 month & annual terms. I have a strategy for British Sharp (characteristic) Hurdle races which has a strike rate of 51% (yeah I know right) so I added a date range just to see over time if the trends had held up. When I set the date from 1 Jan 2022 - it turned upside down into a losing strategy? the 2021 year period by comparison was massively profitable and it was the profit from 2021 that's making the whole term look good.I don't know if it was the effects of the Covid restrictions or if last year was a trough in the longer term trend or, whether 2021 was a peak in what is actually a losing trend on the parameters I have set?
All I know is that I have to go through everything and test the dates to find the more current trend's?
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@neal-simmonds yep I have been there, sometimes I used to just research a game and back 0-0 for literally one tick, get 1p profit and then get out just to see a green number so that I could tell myself I could still do it.
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Its not good when you keep seeing losing trades where the strategy says you should be getting some wins by now! Seeing loss where you expected to see some profit by now! I'm definitely confused!
I've been trying to be a bit more discerning with my strategy parameters, more clinical, and though the strike rates and ROI are historically good (If you had backed those trades) as I've said before, there's no guarantee they hold the trend in future, and no amount of foreword testing can guarantee it.
The new versions of the strategies where we break things down into course characteristic's aren't all finished yet, but those that are do not seem to be following the trend of history! I am testing with real money! but less than a quarter of a point of my current Betfair bank!
On the body & mind front, in spite of a really good workout yesterday (Sunday) I didn't sleep very well at all, I had to jump back in bed after dropping the kids off at school & I did manage to catch up on some sleep!
Just like all sports people, I think I need the confidence derived from a few wins?
