Alex's - one year to being a pro
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@Andrew-Gray thanks for the pointers - if you have the cell formula and something I can cut and paste in then that would be great to have a in each of the cases you mentioned. Thanks again for the pointers - Alex
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Hi Alex just had a look at your spreadsheets, lots of interesting stuff on there.
Can I suggest a few improvements to your spreadsheets:
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Add a column or two to calculate 1pt per bet results. Because you are changing stakes a fair bit on some of them it's hard to get a sense of the real ROI% based on keeping stakes steady.
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Add a "Strike rate to break even" cell so you can compare the current strike rate and see how far away you are to it (or beating it by) on each strat
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Your ROI calculation is wrong for lay strategies, you need to add an extra column for the liability of each lay (i.e. if a £1 "stake" and odds of 3.0 then the stake is actually £2 because that is what you are risking if the outcome goes against you). Hence the lay the draw 30% ROI is looking too big (Likewise on another lay strat your ROI is -137%, obviously this cannot ever be true as how can you lose more than 100% of your investment
)
It's late now but I am happy to do an example spreadsheet based on yours and send it back to you if you want next week at some point.
Cheers and GL this weekend
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Month 13 of trading
Into my second year now of learning to trade and the big message for this month is profit! Over £60 which I'm really happy about.
It feels like all of the points I made to myself in the last couple posts have stuck and now I really do feel like a corner is turned the the proof is in the numbers.
Consistency is king so now it's time to zoom in what is working, repeat it and scale.
Highlights
- Lay the draw strategy have a great month with £102 profit to £5 stakes.
- Most of the other strategies I continue to test seem to be doing well.
- I have picked up a couple more really promising ones as well as sacked off those taking my time and energy.
- Inplay FHG being tested as well as a SHG strategy.
Lowlights
- Couple of my strats that I thought looked amazing have been flat in practise and don't seem worthy of continuing.
Plan for next month is to have got the ball rolling with automation for inplay strategies. Scale my existing strategies and track the new ones closley.
Consistency is king and once you start to break the dam the results come thick and fast after I believe! Roll on Jan!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0
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Plan for the next 12 months.
Below I have set out my plan at this moment in time for the next 12 months. Along the way that might change for countless reasons but I will update the goals as I see fit and depending on the situation I find my self.
From my experience in life and business you need to specific about what you want to achieve - the more specific and clear you can be the better you can build a pathway to that outcome. So let's start with the BIG goal and work back how I am going to get there.
Goal - Make an average of £1000 profit in at last 6 months of the next year.
This figure would allow me to reduce the number of days where I currently work to 3 days a week. With £1000 a month from BF I would be making more money over all with both incomes then I currently earn - I would have the security of the main job and then could set aside 2 days during the week to up-skill myself, test strategies and review my work without impacting my social life on weekends.
How am I going to get there?
I want 5 or 6 solid strategies that I can rely on. I need this number of strategies because if each strategy has on average 30 picks a month then I would have 150/180 selections to make on average £6.66/£5.55 - about 6% ROI on average over the last 6 months of the year to £100 stakes. When you right it down that goal feels very achievable - I have even just surprised myself.
The above would imply I had a £10k bank using 1% of my bank roll or £5k using 2% - this could be built slowly over time as well and me topping it up from savings over the next couple of months to get me started.
So what strategies do I have to get me started? Currently I use Set and Forget as I work and TBH I don't really enjoy live trading - football tends to be unsociable hours that I value too highly to spend in other ways.
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LTD - 81 selections forward tested since 08/09/23 (3months)
£72 profit to £5 lay stakes - 18% ROI so far.
Plan to increase stakes from Jan if Dec continues well. -
Tomaz under 1.5 - Martins testing sheet showing 9% ROI to 400 selections - I am currently testing again since Nov will continue for Dec and Jan and then look to increase stakes accordingly.
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Over 2.5 Lays - back tested over 100 results with a 60% strike rate. Using LAY bet calculator with average odds of 2.11 from testing so far this should yield a healthy profit of 12.8%
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Over 3.5 Lays - back tested over 100 results with a 67% strike rate. As long as I average less than 3.0 lay odds then I should come out with profit.
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Over 2.5 goals 1.0 - currently 289 results / avg 24 selections a month with a 80% strike rate - 1.35 odds from current testing (went live in Nov) - should yield an 8% ROI if it continues.
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Over 2.5 goals 2.0 - 174 selections / avg 35 selections a month with a 68% strike rate - 1.53 current odds avg - yielding a 5.34% ROI to £5 bets.
These are the 6 that I am confident in should they continue their current limited success.
For anyone that's interested in how I worked out the above I use the tools below that I find very useful.
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When you know your strike rate or average odds of your strategy then use - https://strikeratecalculator.com/
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To work out your Lay bets then use your strike rate or odds for backing and convert with - https://betcalcul.com/calculator/converting-lay-odds-to-back-odds/
I have found this so helpful to decide whether a strategy is woth following or if you want to create a filter with lay odds. -
If you want to work out for expected profit then you you can enter your strike rate and avg odds here to give you an idea if it's worth following. - https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/roi/
Other plans for the year.
AUTOMATION!!!! - Once we have the football stats update then I will be recreating my strategies and using the URL link with BFBM to place a significant chuck of my trades. I will also be using these two pieces of software to trade inplay. I will expand and accelerate this part of my plan as the software allows me to.I may also also look to add one or two strategies from the members filters. And look to automate these as the software allows via URL in the future.
Quite a lot to cover off but that's my plan - I'll update each month with a mini update and maybe do a half way update to see how I an tracking and getting along with my progress.
Any changes to the plan I will also update on as nothing is set in stone. If anyone has any questions or comments then please fire away. I'm here to learn and always keen to discuss. Cheers, Alex
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@Adam said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@Alex-Rule This is a brilliant introspective post, well done.
I think point 3 is where a lot of people fall down. It's not as simple as predicting that a match will have lots of goals, at least if everyone else thinks there will be as well.
Point 5 is why seemingly contradictory approaches can both make money, and why some people win and some people lose using the same strategy.
Regarding the losses, have they been consistent through the year or were they weighted towards one end or the other?
You mentioned making some mistakes, rushing in etc. Was there any pattern to the losing trades that resulted from those? For example you got back from work one day, sick of the day job and decided to up the stakes to try and hurry things up a bit, or you had some new idea for a strategy and just couldn't wait to get it going, so skipped the paper trading part?
I'm just wondering whether those learning experiences were down to a temporary lapse in mindset (e.g. a one-off bad mood that scuppered you) or just a general undercurrent of impatience.
When I was learning to scalp horses, I was always very susceptible to whatever mood I was in that day. If I'd got out of the wrong side of bed that morning it was game over. That's mostly why I ended up automating as much as I could
Hi Adam, thanks for taking the time to read my post - it's good to know I'm not just sat in a room talking to myself. However by putting these things down I'm hoping....
- People can read and if they are going through the same in their first then they are not alone and it happens to others. Trading can feel like you are alone and it's you against the world.
- I can look back in another year and see the progress I have made. I will be able to see if I am making the same mistakes or if I feel the same about about trading overall. My goals may also change over the next 12 months so it's good to have a history.
My hope is that I look back and see how far I have come, what I have learnt and that by backing myself and putting in the work that it is paying off.
In regard to your points.....
Losses - I would say that they have been more or less constant over the last year. However the last month or so I have really made great strides and cut those to just £17 loss last month - which given the number of strategies I am testing is probs a loss of about 1 or 2% in relation to what I am staking. I can hand on heart say that I have stopped throwing good money after bad just hoping for variance to come to the rescue to even me out. I've learnt patience and now am just testing with £1 stakes any new strategy.Mistakes - I am quite glad to say that I never rage trade. If it's not on one of my selections list then it doesn't get traded, end of. Where I think I have come unstuck is I have traded a strategy for a month say at £2 and then seen it make 10% ROI - the patten fits the back testing - I then go to £3 or £4 stakes and then it bombs or wipes out all the profit I would have made as it's drops off. I think I am guilty of setting up a lot of strats and maybe not focusing on a couple to see how they are performing. A scatter gun approach and hoping that out of the 10 I set up 1 or 2 are goers. These other 8 have been eating my bank! I love to skip the paper trading but have now limited the opening to £1 stakes. I feel this gives me the same "feel" as trading without the risk. A must for any newbie!
Mindset - For me it comes down to impatience for sure. We live in a society of instant gratification. You see people all around you having success (real or fake) and our chimp brains want the same. You hear about sports traders making 6 figure sums with seeming ease and you feel like you should be part of the gang. It's also tricky when you are in a job role that isn't fulfilling you. I'm guilty of seeing trading as my exit plan and running towards it too quickly and getting a little burnt in the process. I'll speak more to automation in my plan for the next 12 months.
I've learnt over the last year something that I think I knew all along - you have to work for any success. But what I love about trading is once you hit a decent strategy that works for you, you can just turn up the dial it will reward you exponentially.
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@Richard-Latimer yes, it has certainly been a year of learning. And I think had I not made a loss and for burnt then I probably wouldn't learn having not made a mistake to do so from.
I am genuinely excited about the future of my trading - I just need to cut myself some slack, breath deeply and manage expectations. It's all about the long game.
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
My One Year Review
It's been 12 months since I joined the BTC community and begun my trading journey. I joined because I wanted I wanted to try something new and earn money for myself in an alternative way to a 9-5 job. Since the pandemic I have come round to the idea that the majority of us live in a particular way, one that is for the most part dictated to us by society either passively or actively.
I saw and still see sports trading as a direct contrast to this way of living and working. With trading you operate in a unique space where there are no conventional rules, practises or way of doing things. Unlike other jobs, roles or businesses it's simply you vs the market. To me sports trading is the living example of "you get what you give". If you just want to bit of extra weekend spending money then it's there - if you want to earn a very good salary (in theory with no limit, unlike the real world) then you can. There is no discrimination or unconscious bias in this world. If you are prepared to work and learn then there is no limit to your success.
After 12 months it feels right to look back and see what I have achieved, compare my initial thoughts and wants from the start of my journey against those I have now.
So, below is snapshot of what I have done in the 12 last months and what I have learnt.......
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First thing to say is.... I HAVE LOST MONEY - and I'm OK with it. Overall I have probably lost around £700 or so over the year. Why?! Because I was naive, impatient and too proud. I put money on strategies right away, admittedly small stakes of £5 max but over time they all add up. I never paper traded, I never collected data and I wasn't willing to wait for success.
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I had never placed a LAY bet before - through trail and error, Youtube and reading I taught myself the difference and when to use each one. Now a lot of my strategies are lay bets and I love it!
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Going against the market - when I started trading I just thought that I needed to find the games that were going to have over 2.5 goals in them for example and I would make thousands. I have learnt that it doesn't really work like that. By going against the market and looking at into the chaos of the unknown, that is where we really find the value.
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Taking your time - I was so desperate to prove myself right and show those around me success that I rushed in. This has cost me finically as already mentioned but it also takes a mental strain as you feel like a failure.
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Find your way of trading - take your time and try a mix of set and forget, live trading and automation. You may lean into one to find that like a mix of a couple or all. There are many ways to skin a cat as they say.
My reading list for someone in their first year of trading is below.
- The Phycology of Money
- Trading in the zone
- Tools of Titans
- Profit First
The general take away from these books is that consistency, time, going against the competition and rewarding and enjoying your journey (not just the expected destination) are key to your long term success in many things - trading included.
So how do I feel now after one year, £700 down and still working in a job I am falling slowly more and more out of love with.... I feel good in general. Yes it hurts be down money, but I know people have and will continue to blow more than me. I spent £3k a year for uni so £700 for my first year trading doesn't seem too bad. I now have a pathway and goals for year two. I also know that I won't lose that much or % of my bank role again. Unfortunately I know that I am someone who learns from experience. And this now means I won't make the same mistakes again. I've learnt patience , I've learnt to shrug off the losing days, I have clear and realistic medium and long term goals.
For anyone who reads this and is feeling the same on their journey or is just thinking of starting out and feels a similar way about their outlook on life and what they are getting from it. Take the leap, you owe it to yourself to give it a go. If you are more careful than me then you won't lose much if any, just remember that the rewards are limitless.
Took me well over a year to reach the level of thought you have. 3) it just seems so easy. Start on £1, double it every day and you'll have your first million in no time!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
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@Alex-Rule This is a brilliant introspective post, well done.
I think point 3 is where a lot of people fall down. It's not as simple as predicting that a match will have lots of goals, at least if everyone else thinks there will be as well.
Point 5 is why seemingly contradictory approaches can both make money, and why some people win and some people lose using the same strategy.
Regarding the losses, have they been consistent through the year or were they weighted towards one end or the other?
You mentioned making some mistakes, rushing in etc. Was there any pattern to the losing trades that resulted from those? For example you got back from work one day, sick of the day job and decided to up the stakes to try and hurry things up a bit, or you had some new idea for a strategy and just couldn't wait to get it going, so skipped the paper trading part?
I'm just wondering whether those learning experiences were down to a temporary lapse in mindset (e.g. a one-off bad mood that scuppered you) or just a general undercurrent of impatience.
When I was learning to scalp horses, I was always very susceptible to whatever mood I was in that day. If I'd got out of the wrong side of bed that morning it was game over. That's mostly why I ended up automating as much as I could
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My One Year Review
It's been 12 months since I joined the BTC community and begun my trading journey. I joined because I wanted I wanted to try something new and earn money for myself in an alternative way to a 9-5 job. Since the pandemic I have come round to the idea that the majority of us live in a particular way, one that is for the most part dictated to us by society either passively or actively.
I saw and still see sports trading as a direct contrast to this way of living and working. With trading you operate in a unique space where there are no conventional rules, practises or way of doing things. Unlike other jobs, roles or businesses it's simply you vs the market. To me sports trading is the living example of "you get what you give". If you just want to bit of extra weekend spending money then it's there - if you want to earn a very good salary (in theory with no limit, unlike the real world) then you can. There is no discrimination or unconscious bias in this world. If you are prepared to work and learn then there is no limit to your success.
After 12 months it feels right to look back and see what I have achieved, compare my initial thoughts and wants from the start of my journey against those I have now.
So, below is snapshot of what I have done in the 12 last months and what I have learnt.......
-
First thing to say is.... I HAVE LOST MONEY - and I'm OK with it. Overall I have probably lost around £700 or so over the year. Why?! Because I was naive, impatient and too proud. I put money on strategies right away, admittedly small stakes of £5 max but over time they all add up. I never paper traded, I never collected data and I wasn't willing to wait for success.
-
I had never placed a LAY bet before - through trail and error, Youtube and reading I taught myself the difference and when to use each one. Now a lot of my strategies are lay bets and I love it!
-
Going against the market - when I started trading I just thought that I needed to find the games that were going to have over 2.5 goals in them for example and I would make thousands. I have learnt that it doesn't really work like that. By going against the market and looking at into the chaos of the unknown, that is where we really find the value.
-
Taking your time - I was so desperate to prove myself right and show those around me success that I rushed in. This has cost me finically as already mentioned but it also takes a mental strain as you feel like a failure.
-
Find your way of trading - take your time and try a mix of set and forget, live trading and automation. You may lean into one to find that like a mix of a couple or all. There are many ways to skin a cat as they say.
My reading list for someone in their first year of trading is below.
- The Phycology of Money
- Trading in the zone
- Tools of Titans
- Profit First
The general take away from these books is that consistency, time, going against the competition and rewarding and enjoying your journey (not just the expected destination) are key to your long term success in many things - trading included.
So how do I feel now after one year, £700 down and still working in a job I am falling slowly more and more out of love with.... I feel good in general. Yes it hurts be down money, but I know people have and will continue to blow more than me. I spent £3k a year for uni so £700 for my first year trading doesn't seem too bad. I now have a pathway and goals for year two. I also know that I won't lose that much or % of my bank role again. Unfortunately I know that I am someone who learns from experience. And this now means I won't make the same mistakes again. I've learnt patience , I've learnt to shrug off the losing days, I have clear and realistic medium and long term goals.
For anyone who reads this and is feeling the same on their journey or is just thinking of starting out and feels a similar way about their outlook on life and what they are getting from it. Take the leap, you owe it to yourself to give it a go. If you are more careful than me then you won't lose much if any, just remember that the rewards are limitless.
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@Alex-Rule I'll be posting up my yearly review later this eve if I get a chance. @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse - I'll lay out last years findings as well as the plan for the next year as well.
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
Month 12 of trading
Wow I can't believe it's been a whole year! It's been a hell of a ride and while I have learnt so much there is still long way to go - but I think I'm on the right path.
Below I will detail my normal monthly results and then in the next couple of days I will do a longer post about the full year and what I have and still need to learn.
Nov was my best month so far and was just a handful of trades from being an absolute stormer! The main message for me is profit! I finished the month £9 up (using minimum stakes) the last 2 or 3 days I've had a shocker and it wiped out the £40-50 I had made which is shame - but we go again.
Highlights
- New LTD strategy made a profit on its first month £11.26 to £2 lay stakes which is good (should have been more though as fallen short of predicted results based on backtesting)
- My over 2.5 goals backing is currently trading up 5.6% which is great and should continue.
- My second LTD (using league exclusion is trading up 24% - however it has much fewer selections
- I've created a lot more strategies - mostly going against the market which from early testing seems to be bearing fruit.
- Mind set is much improved - I feel like I am in control of my emotions and dealign with issues constructively and not reactively.
Lowlights
- Thought my new LTD strat was a banker - was at 8% ROI and had 300 selections in Nov - this would have been great but it dropped up and hit a rough patch the last couple of days and now stands at 1.73% - I am confident however this will improve.
- My lay away is bombing hard! But I will test backing the away team as well as laying to I can see if I can turn a sinker into a winner.
- list item.
Now I will set goals for my next year of trading and build a pathway to success. Let's get it!
You can follow my results here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0
I hope you make a fortune. I have a question: what is the minimum number of successful strategies you think you will need to achieve your objective of becoming a pro trader?
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Month 12 of trading
Wow I can't believe it's been a whole year! It's been a hell of a ride and while I have learnt so much there is still long way to go - but I think I'm on the right path.
Below I will detail my normal monthly results and then in the next couple of days I will do a longer post about the full year and what I have and still need to learn.
Nov was my best month so far and was just a handful of trades from being an absolute stormer! The main message for me is profit! I finished the month £9 up (using minimum stakes) the last 2 or 3 days I've had a shocker and it wiped out the £40-50 I had made which is shame - but we go again.
Highlights
- New LTD strategy made a profit on its first month £11.26 to £2 lay stakes which is good (should have been more though as fallen short of predicted results based on backtesting)
- My over 2.5 goals backing is currently trading up 5.6% which is great and should continue.
- My second LTD (using league exclusion is trading up 24% - however it has much fewer selections
- I've created a lot more strategies - mostly going against the market which from early testing seems to be bearing fruit.
- Mind set is much improved - I feel like I am in control of my emotions and dealign with issues constructively and not reactively.
Lowlights
- Thought my new LTD strat was a banker - was at 8% ROI and had 300 selections in Nov - this would have been great but it dropped up and hit a rough patch the last couple of days and now stands at 1.73% - I am confident however this will improve.
- My lay away is bombing hard! But I will test backing the away team as well as laying to I can see if I can turn a sinker into a winner.
- list item.
Now I will set goals for my next year of trading and build a pathway to success. Let's get it!
You can follow my results here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0
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Month 11 of trading
A really enjoyable month of trading from a learning perspective. I've taken it back to basics and feel that having taken a step back I know have a much clearer vision of my trading future.
Highlights
- I know now that I want to automate the majority of my trading. I also know that BFBM and the new football update are the path to do this.
- I've worked out how to calculate LAY odds based on either BACK odds or strike rate. This is huge for working out where value is and what the average odds need to be to produce consistent profits.
- I have a LTD set and forget strategy that at 12% ROI after 2 months of trading it!
- I'm testing a second LTD strategy that has a lower strike rate but a lot more selections - this may be more profitable in the long term.
- I'm testing a new Draw at HT and Lay over 0.5 FHG strategy to see which is the most profitable. This is really promising and I will be sharing the community in due course.
- I have finished trading in the zone - well worth a read for mindset improvement.
- @Martin gave me a shout out in a podcast in Oct. Really good to hear that I am doing the right things. I know I will get there!
Lowlights
- Lay over 3.5 still a bit sticky - one more month to see if it improves.
- No others really - it's been a great month and I can't wait to see how this month goes.
Keep on trucking everyone. I will do a big end of year post next month and sum up my first year or learning to trade. For those who may be doubting their abilities and have incurred some loss, don't worry there is a brighter future coming. You can make it happen.
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@Alex-Rule Hi Alex, are you saying you dont exit if a goal is scored you just wait until the 82nd minute and then assess the situation?
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@George-Bowling - These are my rules for my LTD at half time strategy.
Currently I enter at half time 0.1 tick down from the price offered. This is normally matched within 2 or 3 mins of the game restarting.
I then exit at 82 mins or so if one team is 1 goal up - if they are 2 goals up then I let it run longer or until the end as you have a decent margin for safety.
If no goal after 82 mins I let it run and either is goal is scored and I green up or a leave it and take the loss.
Hope the helps!
