Alex's - one year to being a pro
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
My One Year Review
It's been 12 months since I joined the BTC community and begun my trading journey. I joined because I wanted I wanted to try something new and earn money for myself in an alternative way to a 9-5 job. Since the pandemic I have come round to the idea that the majority of us live in a particular way, one that is for the most part dictated to us by society either passively or actively.
I saw and still see sports trading as a direct contrast to this way of living and working. With trading you operate in a unique space where there are no conventional rules, practises or way of doing things. Unlike other jobs, roles or businesses it's simply you vs the market. To me sports trading is the living example of "you get what you give". If you just want to bit of extra weekend spending money then it's there - if you want to earn a very good salary (in theory with no limit, unlike the real world) then you can. There is no discrimination or unconscious bias in this world. If you are prepared to work and learn then there is no limit to your success.
After 12 months it feels right to look back and see what I have achieved, compare my initial thoughts and wants from the start of my journey against those I have now.
So, below is snapshot of what I have done in the 12 last months and what I have learnt.......
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First thing to say is.... I HAVE LOST MONEY - and I'm OK with it. Overall I have probably lost around £700 or so over the year. Why?! Because I was naive, impatient and too proud. I put money on strategies right away, admittedly small stakes of £5 max but over time they all add up. I never paper traded, I never collected data and I wasn't willing to wait for success.
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I had never placed a LAY bet before - through trail and error, Youtube and reading I taught myself the difference and when to use each one. Now a lot of my strategies are lay bets and I love it!
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Going against the market - when I started trading I just thought that I needed to find the games that were going to have over 2.5 goals in them for example and I would make thousands. I have learnt that it doesn't really work like that. By going against the market and looking at into the chaos of the unknown, that is where we really find the value.
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Taking your time - I was so desperate to prove myself right and show those around me success that I rushed in. This has cost me finically as already mentioned but it also takes a mental strain as you feel like a failure.
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Find your way of trading - take your time and try a mix of set and forget, live trading and automation. You may lean into one to find that like a mix of a couple or all. There are many ways to skin a cat as they say.
My reading list for someone in their first year of trading is below.
- The Phycology of Money
- Trading in the zone
- Tools of Titans
- Profit First
The general take away from these books is that consistency, time, going against the competition and rewarding and enjoying your journey (not just the expected destination) are key to your long term success in many things - trading included.
So how do I feel now after one year, £700 down and still working in a job I am falling slowly more and more out of love with.... I feel good in general. Yes it hurts be down money, but I know people have and will continue to blow more than me. I spent £3k a year for uni so £700 for my first year trading doesn't seem too bad. I now have a pathway and goals for year two. I also know that I won't lose that much or % of my bank role again. Unfortunately I know that I am someone who learns from experience. And this now means I won't make the same mistakes again. I've learnt patience , I've learnt to shrug off the losing days, I have clear and realistic medium and long term goals.
For anyone who reads this and is feeling the same on their journey or is just thinking of starting out and feels a similar way about their outlook on life and what they are getting from it. Take the leap, you owe it to yourself to give it a go. If you are more careful than me then you won't lose much if any, just remember that the rewards are limitless.
Took me well over a year to reach the level of thought you have. 3) it just seems so easy. Start on £1, double it every day and you'll have your first million in no time!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
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@Alex-Rule This is a brilliant introspective post, well done.
I think point 3 is where a lot of people fall down. It's not as simple as predicting that a match will have lots of goals, at least if everyone else thinks there will be as well.
Point 5 is why seemingly contradictory approaches can both make money, and why some people win and some people lose using the same strategy.
Regarding the losses, have they been consistent through the year or were they weighted towards one end or the other?
You mentioned making some mistakes, rushing in etc. Was there any pattern to the losing trades that resulted from those? For example you got back from work one day, sick of the day job and decided to up the stakes to try and hurry things up a bit, or you had some new idea for a strategy and just couldn't wait to get it going, so skipped the paper trading part?
I'm just wondering whether those learning experiences were down to a temporary lapse in mindset (e.g. a one-off bad mood that scuppered you) or just a general undercurrent of impatience.
When I was learning to scalp horses, I was always very susceptible to whatever mood I was in that day. If I'd got out of the wrong side of bed that morning it was game over. That's mostly why I ended up automating as much as I could
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My One Year Review
It's been 12 months since I joined the BTC community and begun my trading journey. I joined because I wanted I wanted to try something new and earn money for myself in an alternative way to a 9-5 job. Since the pandemic I have come round to the idea that the majority of us live in a particular way, one that is for the most part dictated to us by society either passively or actively.
I saw and still see sports trading as a direct contrast to this way of living and working. With trading you operate in a unique space where there are no conventional rules, practises or way of doing things. Unlike other jobs, roles or businesses it's simply you vs the market. To me sports trading is the living example of "you get what you give". If you just want to bit of extra weekend spending money then it's there - if you want to earn a very good salary (in theory with no limit, unlike the real world) then you can. There is no discrimination or unconscious bias in this world. If you are prepared to work and learn then there is no limit to your success.
After 12 months it feels right to look back and see what I have achieved, compare my initial thoughts and wants from the start of my journey against those I have now.
So, below is snapshot of what I have done in the 12 last months and what I have learnt.......
-
First thing to say is.... I HAVE LOST MONEY - and I'm OK with it. Overall I have probably lost around £700 or so over the year. Why?! Because I was naive, impatient and too proud. I put money on strategies right away, admittedly small stakes of £5 max but over time they all add up. I never paper traded, I never collected data and I wasn't willing to wait for success.
-
I had never placed a LAY bet before - through trail and error, Youtube and reading I taught myself the difference and when to use each one. Now a lot of my strategies are lay bets and I love it!
-
Going against the market - when I started trading I just thought that I needed to find the games that were going to have over 2.5 goals in them for example and I would make thousands. I have learnt that it doesn't really work like that. By going against the market and looking at into the chaos of the unknown, that is where we really find the value.
-
Taking your time - I was so desperate to prove myself right and show those around me success that I rushed in. This has cost me finically as already mentioned but it also takes a mental strain as you feel like a failure.
-
Find your way of trading - take your time and try a mix of set and forget, live trading and automation. You may lean into one to find that like a mix of a couple or all. There are many ways to skin a cat as they say.
My reading list for someone in their first year of trading is below.
- The Phycology of Money
- Trading in the zone
- Tools of Titans
- Profit First
The general take away from these books is that consistency, time, going against the competition and rewarding and enjoying your journey (not just the expected destination) are key to your long term success in many things - trading included.
So how do I feel now after one year, £700 down and still working in a job I am falling slowly more and more out of love with.... I feel good in general. Yes it hurts be down money, but I know people have and will continue to blow more than me. I spent £3k a year for uni so £700 for my first year trading doesn't seem too bad. I now have a pathway and goals for year two. I also know that I won't lose that much or % of my bank role again. Unfortunately I know that I am someone who learns from experience. And this now means I won't make the same mistakes again. I've learnt patience , I've learnt to shrug off the losing days, I have clear and realistic medium and long term goals.
For anyone who reads this and is feeling the same on their journey or is just thinking of starting out and feels a similar way about their outlook on life and what they are getting from it. Take the leap, you owe it to yourself to give it a go. If you are more careful than me then you won't lose much if any, just remember that the rewards are limitless.
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@Alex-Rule I'll be posting up my yearly review later this eve if I get a chance. @Mr-Emmet-Moorehouse - I'll lay out last years findings as well as the plan for the next year as well.
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
Month 12 of trading
Wow I can't believe it's been a whole year! It's been a hell of a ride and while I have learnt so much there is still long way to go - but I think I'm on the right path.
Below I will detail my normal monthly results and then in the next couple of days I will do a longer post about the full year and what I have and still need to learn.
Nov was my best month so far and was just a handful of trades from being an absolute stormer! The main message for me is profit! I finished the month £9 up (using minimum stakes) the last 2 or 3 days I've had a shocker and it wiped out the £40-50 I had made which is shame - but we go again.
Highlights
- New LTD strategy made a profit on its first month £11.26 to £2 lay stakes which is good (should have been more though as fallen short of predicted results based on backtesting)
- My over 2.5 goals backing is currently trading up 5.6% which is great and should continue.
- My second LTD (using league exclusion is trading up 24% - however it has much fewer selections
- I've created a lot more strategies - mostly going against the market which from early testing seems to be bearing fruit.
- Mind set is much improved - I feel like I am in control of my emotions and dealign with issues constructively and not reactively.
Lowlights
- Thought my new LTD strat was a banker - was at 8% ROI and had 300 selections in Nov - this would have been great but it dropped up and hit a rough patch the last couple of days and now stands at 1.73% - I am confident however this will improve.
- My lay away is bombing hard! But I will test backing the away team as well as laying to I can see if I can turn a sinker into a winner.
- list item.
Now I will set goals for my next year of trading and build a pathway to success. Let's get it!
You can follow my results here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0
I hope you make a fortune. I have a question: what is the minimum number of successful strategies you think you will need to achieve your objective of becoming a pro trader?
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Month 12 of trading
Wow I can't believe it's been a whole year! It's been a hell of a ride and while I have learnt so much there is still long way to go - but I think I'm on the right path.
Below I will detail my normal monthly results and then in the next couple of days I will do a longer post about the full year and what I have and still need to learn.
Nov was my best month so far and was just a handful of trades from being an absolute stormer! The main message for me is profit! I finished the month £9 up (using minimum stakes) the last 2 or 3 days I've had a shocker and it wiped out the £40-50 I had made which is shame - but we go again.
Highlights
- New LTD strategy made a profit on its first month £11.26 to £2 lay stakes which is good (should have been more though as fallen short of predicted results based on backtesting)
- My over 2.5 goals backing is currently trading up 5.6% which is great and should continue.
- My second LTD (using league exclusion is trading up 24% - however it has much fewer selections
- I've created a lot more strategies - mostly going against the market which from early testing seems to be bearing fruit.
- Mind set is much improved - I feel like I am in control of my emotions and dealign with issues constructively and not reactively.
Lowlights
- Thought my new LTD strat was a banker - was at 8% ROI and had 300 selections in Nov - this would have been great but it dropped up and hit a rough patch the last couple of days and now stands at 1.73% - I am confident however this will improve.
- My lay away is bombing hard! But I will test backing the away team as well as laying to I can see if I can turn a sinker into a winner.
- list item.
Now I will set goals for my next year of trading and build a pathway to success. Let's get it!
You can follow my results here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0
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Month 11 of trading
A really enjoyable month of trading from a learning perspective. I've taken it back to basics and feel that having taken a step back I know have a much clearer vision of my trading future.
Highlights
- I know now that I want to automate the majority of my trading. I also know that BFBM and the new football update are the path to do this.
- I've worked out how to calculate LAY odds based on either BACK odds or strike rate. This is huge for working out where value is and what the average odds need to be to produce consistent profits.
- I have a LTD set and forget strategy that at 12% ROI after 2 months of trading it!
- I'm testing a second LTD strategy that has a lower strike rate but a lot more selections - this may be more profitable in the long term.
- I'm testing a new Draw at HT and Lay over 0.5 FHG strategy to see which is the most profitable. This is really promising and I will be sharing the community in due course.
- I have finished trading in the zone - well worth a read for mindset improvement.
- @Martin gave me a shout out in a podcast in Oct. Really good to hear that I am doing the right things. I know I will get there!
Lowlights
- Lay over 3.5 still a bit sticky - one more month to see if it improves.
- No others really - it's been a great month and I can't wait to see how this month goes.
Keep on trucking everyone. I will do a big end of year post next month and sum up my first year or learning to trade. For those who may be doubting their abilities and have incurred some loss, don't worry there is a brighter future coming. You can make it happen.
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@Alex-Rule Hi Alex, are you saying you dont exit if a goal is scored you just wait until the 82nd minute and then assess the situation?
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@George-Bowling - These are my rules for my LTD at half time strategy.
Currently I enter at half time 0.1 tick down from the price offered. This is normally matched within 2 or 3 mins of the game restarting.
I then exit at 82 mins or so if one team is 1 goal up - if they are 2 goals up then I let it run longer or until the end as you have a decent margin for safety.
If no goal after 82 mins I let it run and either is goal is scored and I green up or a leave it and take the loss.
Hope the helps!
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@George-Bowling said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@Alex-Rule really interesting. thanks for sharing.
Specifically with your lay the draw at HT, what sort of indicators or parameters have you been working around for indicators to enter into the trade and are you trading out etc?
Interested on your thoughts on this as I am currently forward testing an automated half time 0-0 LTD but at present I am trading most at nominal stakes while I collect forward testing data.
Keep up the good work!
Also hope you are enjoying trading in the zone - great book!
G
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@Alex-Rule really interesting. thanks for sharing.
Specifically with your lay the draw at HT, what sort of indicators or parameters have you been working around for indicators to enter into the trade and are you trading out etc?
Interested on your thoughts on this as I am currently forward testing an automated half time 0-0 LTD but at present I am trading most at nominal stakes while I collect forward testing data.
Keep up the good work!
Also hope you are enjoying trading in the zone - great book!
G -
Month 10 of trading
A mixed bag for my this month - overall I'm slightly down across the board. I have now had 2x months of inplay strategies and they have been a bit of a mixed bag. I've worked hard on mid set and trying to take my emotions out of trading which has gone quite well.
Highlights
- Over 0.5 FHG strategy is still tracking well at 4%
- LTD at HT inplay is still up (although not as much as last month)
- I finally have the confidence to leave some of my under performing strategies behind and move onto things that do serve me.
- Currently reading Trading In The Zone - and it's a really insightful book and is really helping me with trading.
Lowlights
- Rough start to my over 3.5 lays - I need to reduce my stakes I think and see how it goes for a while. Will give it 2 more months
- Jumping in too early on a couple of other strategies seems to have cost me some treasure.
Big take away for me this month is that automation if the way forward. I want/need to get set up on BFBM and automate my trades. It's killing my weekends doing things manually and I can get around this - the tools are there. It's just going to take some time. I'm abroad at the moment so when I'm back I plan to get stuck in!
Hope everyone is doing well and let's see what this month brings! Cheers, Al
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Month 9 of trading
A better month for me. Have had my first real go with inplay trading and overall it's been a good start. The 3 strategies I have started trialing have wiped their faces or made a profit which is really positive for me.
I reduced the number of set and forgets I was trading to just the ones that I think work best and so therefore ended the month slightly up overall.
Highlights
- FHG strategy consistent with July results 6% ROI
- LTD at HT inplay showing and 18.64% ROI in the first month from 69 selections.
- Lot's of new inplay and set and forget strategies created and in testing mode as we speak.
Lowlights
- My SHG strategies have been a bit of a let down and I thought they would have shown more promise - however it's only been 1 month so they need at least 2 more to see if they are worth continuing with.
- Decision to be made about my Home Win at Half time filter - just seems a lot of effort for very little return.
For this month I am going live with small stakes on a couple more Set and Forget strategies - as well as continuing to track my inplay to see if the SHG improves or if they LTD filter continues its magic.
Set and Forget
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0
Inplay
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12893w4uBdzT0ac0phKa5zCPEXRzBBNsQxGHKEvJVAC0/edit#gid=123321413 -
Month 8 of trading.
Been a real mixed bag July - very few selections made it feel like a really slow month indeed! A small loss overall but I'm not surprised as the low number of games has made those losses feel bigger with a small data set on some of the newer strategies.
Hightlights
- Been doing LOADS of testing for inplay and new set and forget strategies. Should be going live with a couple of inplay this month for the first time which is really exciting.
- My over 0.5 FHG strategy has started to redeem it's self and is now in profit!
Lowlights
- Big swings in variance have left me in the red on a few strategies but I need to know if this is just he time of year or if they are just bad strategies.
In play trading for a SHG and LTD at half time - looking forward to starting this and seeing the results. Takeaway message for this month is TEST TEST TEST!
Let's go August and bring back the winter leagues! Cheers!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit?pli=1#gid=0 -
@Martin said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@Alex-Rule yes yes yes this is fantastic to hear!
Honestly @Martin I'm proper buzzing. It's a similar feeling to having a great gym session, you feel amazing after and looking forward to the next one! I have watched all your guys vids and listened to the podcasts (I treat it like homework that you will eventually get paid for) and they are so helpful.
I really think that by the end of 2023 I will be able to take a step back from my full time job and drop a day or 2 which is amazing. If anyone new to trading is reading this then all I can say is put in the time, ask questions and trust yourself that you are good enough. You don't have to special to be a great trader, just consistent!
