Alex's - one year to being a pro
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Month 7 of trading
June was a really positive month for me. I have been testing lot's of strategies in the background and there are some really promising ones in the pipeline. Overall for the month I was up a little - the end of season/waiting for the summer leagues to kick in does seem to have thrown me and my results a little but I'm not too worried as there is plenty to come.
Highlights
- I stuck to my trading plan - didn't trade any strategies that were not on there.
- My 2.5 goals filter is showing a lot of promise and I plan to trade another one this month as well which is looking very promising.
Lowlights
- None really - feeling very positive about the next month!
Really excited to see how the next few months go and see if I can finish the year in consistent profit. Roll on July!
Cheers! -
Month 6 of trading.
May has been a rocky month for my strategies but I remain extremely positive. At a glance I have lost again - but it's less than last month and having never traded the end of the winter season before I am experiencing the volatility for the first time and its defo a learning curve.
I have never done so much research, reading, listening and trying out ideas in a month since this began. It's been really enjoyable in spite of the apparent results and I think it will set me up for future success in the long run.
Highlights
- New lay the draw strategy showing really good signs early on - more data needed but seems really promising.
- Preliminary tests in a few other strategies looking good (Game ends in Draw, over 2.5 goals and FHG)
- Home win at half time strategy recovered and I am now testing a couple more variations to see if it can be improved.
Lowlights
- Under 1.5 goals strategy has fallen off a bit of a cliff - but this might be down to the end of season push to win games in the winter leagues.
- Under 3.5 longer odds seems to have taken a hit as well - this could be for the same reason and maybe unders need to be parked for April and May?
Inplay strategies are bing tested as well and I need more data before making a decision to go live with them. These are really exciting and I am looking forward to having a play with a few variations to see what they can produce. Onwards and upwards for June - I think it will be a much better month for me and I am keen to keep the learning ticking over. I feel like my need to always trade has calmed down and now I feel OK taking weekends off when I can't give it 100% of my attention.
Keep fighting the good fight and I predict better things for June!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@Richard-Latimer I found when I first started that the results all seemed to go in my favour on the few strategies I had. Maybe it was my naivety or wishful thinking but I thought I found a golden egg early on and that was going to continue for me! I guess variance kicks in and now different leagues will be in action and others not. So it be interesting to compare next Dec to last to see if it's a seasonal thing or if I was just seeing a very higher strike rate for that strategy which is not representative of the overall data. Having watched @Martin s last video on DO NOT CHANGE YOUR STRATEGY if feel I need much more data to know for sure.
I think my "one year to being a pro" upon reflection was very ambitious but I was mis led by my early insane ROI and P/L ratio. I think for me 2 years is more realistic. The main thing is I am still having fun and still learning so that's good, I still have the drive to be financially independent!
How long have you been trading for?
I'm around 20yrs in and only now do I feel it is within reach
As long as you get there - that's the main thing. Keep it up!
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@Richard-Latimer said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
And it's still going to be in time to take early retirement
definitely the dream!!
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And it's still going to be in time to take early retirement
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Akiva-Anderson yeah I know
It probably cost me my marriage too getting a little obsessed at times although I maintain never addicted. No nasty debts etc....
And I've met someone really special so who's to say this wasn't always the right path
If this place had existed years ago I would have got there sooner!
I'll console myself with the fact many never get there at all
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I'm around 20yrs in and only now do I feel it is within reach
Should've been within reach many years ago. It has actually taken you a generation. Far too long. You know it, I know it, we all know it.
I'm amazed at your stubbornness, but it's what got you here!
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@Richard-Latimer I found when I first started that the results all seemed to go in my favour on the few strategies I had. Maybe it was my naivety or wishful thinking but I thought I found a golden egg early on and that was going to continue for me! I guess variance kicks in and now different leagues will be in action and others not. So it be interesting to compare next Dec to last to see if it's a seasonal thing or if I was just seeing a very higher strike rate for that strategy which is not representative of the overall data. Having watched @Martin s last video on DO NOT CHANGE YOUR STRATEGY if feel I need much more data to know for sure.
I think my "one year to being a pro" upon reflection was very ambitious but I was mis led by my early insane ROI and P/L ratio. I think for me 2 years is more realistic. The main thing is I am still having fun and still learning so that's good, I still have the drive to be financially independent!
How long have you been trading for?
I'm around 20yrs in and only now do I feel it is within reach
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer I found when I first started that the results all seemed to go in my favour on the few strategies I had. Maybe it was my naivety or wishful thinking but I thought I found a golden egg early on and that was going to continue for me! I guess variance kicks in and now different leagues will be in action and others not. So it be interesting to compare next Dec to last to see if it's a seasonal thing or if I was just seeing a very higher strike rate for that strategy which is not representative of the overall data. Having watched @Martin s last video on DO NOT CHANGE YOUR STRATEGY if feel I need much more data to know for sure.
I think my "one year to being a pro" upon reflection was very ambitious but I was mis led by my early insane ROI and P/L ratio. I think for me 2 years is more realistic. The main thing is I am still having fun and still learning so that's good, I still have the drive to be financially independent!
How long have you been trading for?
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
Month 5 of trading.
April has been a real struggle for me (I take slight comfort in the fact that it seems to be same way for a lot of people). A pretty heavy loss this month for me down £79.85 which is a bit of a punch in the gut!
A few of my strategies seem to be slowing down and I hope this is just to do with variance.
Highlights
- Under 3.5 goals filter till maintaining a good level of profit with a 6.87% ROI currently.
Lowlights
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My Home Win at half time filter seems to have dropped off the edge of a cliff. Might be time to see if anything can be done to save it.
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Under 1.5 goals has taken a bit of a bit this month and has half the ROI it had last month which is very frustrating.
I have paper traded some inplay strategies for FHG and SHG at various entry points. I need to do more work on these to see if I can make them work for me with odds ranges.
I feel like with a full time job, set and forget and now inplay data collection it feels like a lot of work and I need to find a way to manage it better - maybe setting set hours when I will trade and then having clear AWAY time where I have a break to regroup!
Let's see if better weather in May means better results for all!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14sQHc1a_-Q92Y0nIh0JIPTU3-hese2svcynRGef9aog/edit#gid=0What data are you looking at in under 1.5's? I've noticed a few things which while profitable over the course of a year weren't amazing and so I removed them immediately.
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@Alex-Rule said in Alex's - one year to being a pro:
@martin Thanks Martin, could not have done it without and you and Ryan's help. The mentality has been the hardest thing but I can hand on heart say that I did not trade a single bet that wasn't a selection on a strategy in Dec.
I also have to say that your idea of going against the market is where I am seeing the best results.
Under 1.5 Goals - 51%ROI
Away Win - 44% ROILower strike rates but bigger rewards! More data to add this month and hopefully a similar return!
This right here is similar to something I am seeing. Started to notice that I may be able to make money on the raw data for my over 1.5 which just misses out on being a bonafied selection so went back and got all the odds, tweaked the top and bottom ends of data to see what would work and what wouldn't. If it was to continue as it has for the last year I'd be looking at s/r around 56% and ave lay odds of 1.3! Eclipses my under lays!!
Now every loss I have can be analysed as normal but also looked at in a larger context of can I use this another way in the future.
This is the stuff that's really interesting me now.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
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@Jonathan-West Yep I think you need to know why and how the selections are being made, it wouldn't mean people would leave either lol it would actually help people tweak them and make them better.
Plus their software tells you when there's a strategy selection so there's the value.
I mentioned to Adam Footy Amigo and he said 'Ours will be better!'
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@jonathan-west How have you found them with your own data collection and tracking? Are they making you money?
Cheers, Al
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