Jonathan's Journey
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Jan 12th
Great result last night with PSG finishing 2-0 and adding another 2.4 pts to the total at 19.10pts.
No Selections for my filters today so will focus on tweaking the automation and I sussed out yesterday how to put the Members selections in to BF Bot Manager manually for smaller stakes under £1 so thats another thing ticked off the list.
Also setup a little lay the draw at half time bot focusing on home team being better through inplay stats. completely hands off I dont give it any selections as it isnt using any pre game stats.
It picked 4 games and 4 winners. only testing it with 20p stakes but It seems to be backing and laying perfectly.
The big takeaway is im very close to being completely hands off with my trading now, Im just loading up BTC and eventually my own filters if profitable and BOOM. This makes me happy.
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Jan 11th
Quiet couple of day on the under 2.5 goals filter so nothing to report. 1 game today with PSG at big odds of 3.45 so that will be interesting to see how that plays out.
The other strategy ive been tracking is strong home favs with high PPG. It started out as a baack the home team at odds 1.7 or greater but ive noticed several draws appearing which is bringing down the strike rate.
This has however led me to look at laying the away team and its making a huge difference. currently after 25 games it has a strike rate of 96% and a running pts total of 12.98. Such a big difference but i guess that's what happens when you track properly and deep dive results and other market odds. Great start after 4 days.
Im excited to see how these continue.
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Quick Update for the day on the under 2.5 filter. Had another great day with the filtered odds and added another 4.68pts to the running total of 16.70pts.
Im really liking the strategy with the high odds but also the strike rate is over performing currently and the value is amazing so I really hope it continues to grow the way it has started.
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Jan 8th
So had one more winner yesterday after the last post which finished the day on 5.31pts up giving the filter 12.02pts profit since 21st December. Im happy that ive filtered it down moving forward as less selections.
I have started tracking an idea ive noticed could be profitable but never tracked and doesnt take up a lot of my time to monitor which is a strong home teams filter. Ive added it to the tracking spreadsheet. Its very simply but looking for value in home teams that are performing well points wise. So basically avg ppg above 2 and odds greater then 1.7.
The first day of tracking went well and its up 6.53 pts with a 77% strike rate so really interested to see how it continues as a couple of winners had juicy odds above 2.5. One was Villarreal at 3.65.
Following these and placing the daily members set and forget strategies is starting to make me feel like i can actually get there day by day.
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Quick update for the day. The under 2.5s has done poorly but it does produce a lot of games per day however as I've been putting the odds in I have noticed the games that have odds above 2.6 are doing well so I filtered them out and it's whittled down to 8 selections currently since the 31st December with a strike rate of 75% and profit of 10.12pts.
I much prefer this as the drawdown will hopefully be smaller and with those odds it only needs a strike rate of around 38% to breakeven but its smashing that. Early days but I love looking at data and finding the profit in the number's.
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Jan 7th
Adjusted a few things since last post. I found very quickly that i had set up too any filters and was all over the place and not properly tracking anything as were just too many things to keep on top of so i have tripped everything back and I am literally focused on one strategy now which is this under 2,5 goals.
I've updated the spreadsheet based on martins setup so i can monitor strike rates etc.
spreadsheet.It was hitting a losing streak of 8 out of 10 but its pulled back and is still in profit so I am happy with the direction its going in. Currently standing at 16.81pts. Having the higher odds is definitely helping cover the losses.
I Also think I have all the members trading filters setup on automation so we are making good progress.
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Jan 3rd
Ended up 0.73pts down today on the unders. Was unlucky on the Man U game with the late goal in the 80th min as it would have been profit for the day if that came in.
Food for thought though is that even though it was 2-0 you could of taken roughly half the profit at 80 mins. Which in hindsight would have been sensible as man u were dominating. I noticed this with the hearts game the other day. That.was 2-0 towards 80 so could have taken a smaller profit or scratch at least.
Perhaps that is a better tactic to use if a game has 2 goals at 80 mins, just to avoid late losses. I will start tracking that aswell so there is a trading version of the strategy and see which comes out better. Interesting stuff.
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Just thought I would share my tracking spreadsheet for the under 2.5 goals for accountability and to keep myself organised. Needs sprucing but its a start.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10X7SuHwC1UGOVxRFihi1OAgFU3UDOV6zLyk57XUASSo/edit?usp=sharing
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Jan 2nd
Just a quick update today with the under 2.5 goals strategy.
Had 10 games and 5 winners 5 losers so 50% but because a lot of the games were over 2.0 odds It actually finished on 0.40pts profit which is fab meaning hopefully as it continues the losing days won't be massive with the better odds winners bumping things up.
Running total after 3 days tracking stands at 9.3pts profit.
I've got the spreadsheet setup so I can update it daily going forward.
Great start!
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Quick update on the under 2.5 goals strategy. Had another good day with some juicy odds wins. Best was 2.66 on the monaco vs brest game.
5 out of 7 winners so 71% strike rate today and another 4.25 points profit so around 9 points up in 2 days.
Good start and will add the strategy to this blog once I'm back on the laptop. And will start building a daily tracker sheet.
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1st January 2023
Great to be back on it and focused after the break.I'm still playing around with bf bot manager trying to setup the trading strategies so they don't cross over with other strategies.
I'm still manually placing the set and forgets each morning which works better for me.
I've been playing around with setting up so many filters that I've realised it's not very productive as I'm not actually tracking properly so it's all over the place. I've stopped that now. I am tracking just one filter of my own currently which is an under 2.5 goals strategy set and forget.
Whilst we are all waiting for the backtesting I played around with the free version of footystats. As they have a backtesting of 100 games for a small amount of filters. I found using the criteria from BTC stats which is last 10 games scope and avg goals per game of 3 or more gives a good profit of £147 to £10 stakes for the last 100 games with that criteria. So I've begun tracking and early results look quite promising as it is a similar theory to thomaz strategy going against the market as we expect goals in these games so a lot of the odds are above 2.
The filter chucked out the man City game yesterday at bet365 odds of 3.25 so I'm very keen to track this one properly.
Yesterday was 6 out of 9 winners and 4.75 points profit. So will be keeping a good track on this daily.
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December 27th 2022
Back on it properly today. Still trying to setup the bots for the set and forget strategies but the issue i find is that the software will use the selections on different strategies so having to play around a bit to figure it out.
What seems to make more sense to me is to simply manually place the set and forgets myself as that only takes 5 mins and focus on using the automation for the trading strategies. Luckily John Folan has already made a bot for Ryans split stake and the second half goal and i can make a bot for Ryans Bet Green LTD so that all seems perfect to me.
Ive also been trying out a new trading strategy based on Ryans under 3.5 goals strategy but ive used my own approach with it as follows.
I setup a filter to look for average 1st goal time above 20 mins for both teams and i have a min/max avg goals filter of between 2.5 and 3.5 (I found the first few days those total goal stats seemed to be more successful). The last criteria ive used is only games that have a traded volume above £500 on the 3.5 goals market. The reason for this is so that i know come kick off there should hopefully be over £1k traded which will work for my lower stakes.
So the idea is I place the trade just before kickoff laying over 3.5. Then i put in 4 back bets at 5 tick increments. This seems to get matched around 8 mins if markets moving fluidly but more importantly legging out in smaller ticks gets my liability out quicker.
didnt trade any yesterday but there would have been 10 out of 12 successful trades which would give me roughly 8-10% return of profit per trade. I just need to test a few losers to see what the loss will be and start tracking properly but its a good start.
Have had 2 out of 2 successful today and another 4 games to trade later so will start tracking properly and update as and when.
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Been away for a few days with the family so haven't done a lot of trading. I'm going to sign off from the diary until the new year but will keep notes of trades I do and carry on in the new year.
I have managed to get the bank up to £86 from £50 so it gives me a great starting block for 2023. I think I will top it up.to £100 and just move everything to 1% stakes to keep it simple.
One final note I put together a spreadsheet based on compounding stakes just using a £100 bankroll and the average points return a month on the members BTC set and forgets and it has given me a real focus and goal to aim for as the potential is that I will build enough of a bank roll by the end of next year to almost match my full time income. That is super exciting.
