Post Match Odds - Bet Explorer/Flash Score etc
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Hi, i was wondering if using post match odds data, collected from sites such as Bet Explorer and Flash Score is reliable in testing? And does anyone do this?
To put this in context, i have a filter that has returned similar strike rates on O1.5 and O2.5 goals to Connor Garlands impressive set and forget strategies so thought i might test my own filter on O1.5 and O2.5 as set and forget too.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3715/beginner-trading-journey
As i have all the data for the past 2.5 months already tracked but not the odds for these markets, i thought i could back test the results applying the odds available on the above websites. Specifically Bet Explorer as they have the Betfair Exchange odds.
This may be a little long winded to some but something I’m happy to do so long as the published odds are safe to go by.
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@ryan said in Post Match Odds - Bet Explorer/Flash Score etc:
@chris-king shoot me a message when you are ready, I will share the guy I use details with you.
Thanks Ryan, Much appreciated.
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@chris-king shoot me a message when you are ready, I will share the guy I use details with you.
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@ryan said in Post Match Odds - Bet Explorer/Flash Score etc:
@chris-king Yep I agree, plus you can get some really smart people on websites like upward and fiverr who are mega with sheets and excel to build stuff if you need it for less than £10!
Yes, true, hadn’t thought of that. Maybe something to look in to in the future when I’ve settled on a strategy or two and have a portfolio
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@chris-king Yep I agree, plus you can get some really smart people on websites like upward and fiverr who are mega with sheets and excel to build stuff if you need it for less than £10!
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Regarding the initial post, from this weekends selections i’ve found that the live prices on Betfair I’ve managed to get have been in most cases as least as good as the Bet Explorer prices I’ve checked back on. The majority of the time i was getting a few ticks above what was listed on Bet Explorer.
I’ve only done a handful of checks mind but across all the selections the prices have been consistent with the ones i sourced from Bet Explorer.
I’ll occasionally check the odd few selections i think but it seems a decent way to back test if you have the patience to go back through old results.
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@ryan Definitely. Some spreadsheet basics have helped me no end to test and trade better, and when you have the format of your sheet sorted you can just duplicated as needed.
There are far more valuable things to spend time doing when it comes to learning trading. -
@chris-king said in Post Match Odds - Bet Explorer/Flash Score etc:
@martin As a newbie to spreadsheets i started off making them more complicated than necessary. Then seeing how you do yours i just copied the blueprint pretty much as seemed much more simple, then added bits on i wanted.
The advice i would have given myself initially is not to alter the format the BTC software produces the selections in (which i used to). Leave it alone and just upload it in to your sheet, that way you always get continuity with the country’s, league and team names which makes it way easier to filter out things as they’re always referred to in the same way i.e team names.
That's pretty much exactly what I do, I am not down for getting fancy with the spreadsheets for a for reasons as well.
1 - If its too fancy I will spend ages building it
2 - I will never use it
3 - That defeats the purpose then -
@chris-king exactly and it's so much more time efficient
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@martin As a newbie to spreadsheets i started off making them more complicated than necessary. Then seeing how you do yours i just copied the blueprint pretty much as seemed much more simple, then added bits on i wanted.
The advice i would have given myself initially is not to alter the format the BTC software produces the selections in (which i used to). Leave it alone and just upload it in to your sheet, that way you always get continuity with the country’s, league and team names which makes it way easier to filter out things as they’re always referred to in the same way i.e team names.
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@chris-king I like the simple spreadsheets, makes it nice and easy to follow, some of the spreadhseets I get shared to me are so hard to work out what is going on
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Well, after a bit of effort sourcing the prices and calculating the P/L, both O1.5G and O2.5G Set and Forget strategies are up to speed.
Have a browse of the spreadsheet. I’m not a spreadsheet expert and have basically adapted the style @Martin uses on his set and forget strategies to my liking. I like to track different stats along side the strategy I’m testing. Scroll to the far right for profit breakdown and goal stats/strike rates. There is also a potential U3.5G strategy on the sheet I’m going to back test at some point on there so it’s not complete.
Bare in mind these are the ‘Betfair Exchange’ prices taken from Bet Explorer, post match (today!).
I’ll continue to track both strategies using current Betfair prices. Hopefully the trends continue!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oVQxbhpTt6ePpfolRq4DyCz7_7Q2Zfa7fHA03e_qpAA/edit?usp=sharing
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@martin I’m hoping it should be enough to work with as i mentioned in my other reply. If there is a difference between the historic prices and the current it should be evident.
Anyway, I started collecting the past prices last night for May and June.
O1.5G set and forget breaking even. Profit from winners doesn’t seem to be able to outweigh loses so not sure if I’ll pursue it after I’ve finished back testing.
O2.5G looking promising with 65% ish SR over the past 2.5 months. Really hope it follows the same trend as the winter leagues begin to take over as if successful I would love to share it on the forum.
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@ryan On going through a load of match’s last night the odds seem pretty consistent with what i have come to notice when taking current prices from Betfair so give or take a few ticks it should be good enough to work with and determine if a strategy is going to be profitable.
Man! Football back testing will be outstanding
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@chris-king I think its the best option that we have so its not going to be perfect but it will do the job
Until we have footie backtesting!
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@chris-king I have used BetExplorer for prematch odds after a game, not sure how great it is but if you take the average price it should be pretty close.
