Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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Thanks @joshua-varley. It's always good to have a fresh pair of eyes look at these strategies.
TBH I'm not sure. I was just looking at the software whilst the better half was watching Strictly.
If the filter is looking at the full race then it;s not as good as it first looks. Maybe @Adam can look to add traded volume and rank to the start of the race in a future build.
P
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@paul-foster HI Paul - looks bloody good, well done! My question is to do with the Traded volume rank. When looking for horses to qualify, is the software looking for horses that ranked first for traded volume in their previous race, who have gone on to be favourites and won their next race? I know that presently, the traded rank takes into account the whole race, including in-play, but I am just unsure whether it only applies to the race before the win. Brain melting stuff for a Friday night haha - perhaps @Adam might have an answer?
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This is my latest attempt at a strategy. I'm looking for favorites which have the highest traded volume from qualifying races.
Next task is to get this to work in BFBM
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Do you have the files for bet angel?
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@nick-riley said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Can't you just look at the monthly breakdown to see how it's performed over the last 4 months? I'm not sure what extra information this is telling you?
For the base filter you make up yes. But when your filtering more like removing courses and horse classes your using the known results to make those decisions so this way lets you test if the extra filtering worked with unknown races.
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@robert-h Sound logic there.
so the logic is to look at back testing the last 4 months not 18?
Nah its to back test using 14 months so exclude the most recent 4 months. Once happy with the filter you test it only using the most recent 4 months. As that data for the last 4 months was unavailable when you made your strategy you get to see how it works with unknown results just like u were using it to place a bet on a race tonight you don't no that results.
So the last 18 months the first 14 months used to backtest to make strategy then the most recent 4 months used to forward test and verify the strategy
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@robert-h Sound logic there.
so the logic is to look at back testing the last 4 months not 18?
No. It's find a strategy. Then keep an eye on it for 3 months going forward. So what he has done is looked at the date posted, then looked at results since then.
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@robert-h said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
So I just picked a random preset strategy Back | Maidens Long Odds and added the specific date filter of 1 jan21 to 18 jul 22
Gives this result between 1 jan21 to 18 jul 22
So the strat looks good backtested but now to forward test it change the specific date to the last 4 months
We didn't have any of this data when making the strategy and running it originally so this will see how it would have run the last 4 months. So run it and this is the results of last 4 months of forward testing
So forward testing shows its a big change to the worse and makes it look like it was just back fitted with the data we had but with unknown data it wasn't a profitable one.
Hope that makes sense I'm not really good at explaining things in detail and making it make sense
so the logic is to look at back testing the last 4 months not 18?
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@john-folan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@robert-h Sound logic there.
so the logic is to look at back testing the last 4 months not 18?
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@martin Can you pull my Slow Horses and Pace strategies please. I'm having a bit of a rethink on both. Slow horses because it has just gone static and Flat Pace, because I've just noticed all of the profits is in the 8's and i want to know why. Plus the variance on those is a bit meaty for most people.
Short Odds Lays please leave. They have returned a reasonable amount over 500 trades as per below.
42 points from 522 trades. ROI 0f 8% and a max drawdown of 15% of it's bank. This despite a 20 point drawdown during August's extreme heat which it has now recovered from.
Thanks
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@nick-allan said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Is there anywhere where you can ask direct questions about the software perhaps with Adam directly? I noticed there is nothing on the QandA section. I’ve done a deep dive looking at software results and my results based on the selections that the software provides each morning. Now to be honest some strategies showed completely different results, which I can't understand why? I need to get some advice as i don’t understand if the filters provides selections and they meet the trade criteria at race start why they are not in the software results? does anyone know if you can message Adam directly?
Yep use the Asana form in the opening post: https://form.asana.com/?k=V4sICWddOgH3CMQ96g0XSA&d=1120854233877885
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So I just picked a random preset strategy Back | Maidens Long Odds and added the specific date filter of 1 jan21 to 18 jul 22
Gives this result between 1 jan21 to 18 jul 22 So the strat looks good backtested but now to forward test it change the specific date to the last 4 months
We didn't have any of this data when making the strategy and running it originally so this will see how it would have run the last 4 months. So run it and this is the results of last 4 months of forward testing
So forward testing shows its a big change to the worse and makes it look like it was just back fitted with the data we had but with unknown data it wasn't a profitable one.
Hope that makes sense I'm not really good at explaining things in detail and making it make sense
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@dan-mackinnon said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Sorry, I'm a bit confused by this. Are you saying you forward test 4 months on the software? Or you actually forward test and compare?
I use the software to forward test for 4 months. As using the specific date filter removing the last 4 months then creating your strategy you can filter your strategy using all the data before the last 4 months then when happy run it again but only using the last 4 months in the specific date to see how your strategy works with data you didn't have access use to create the filter.
If the last 4 months results are bad I normally scrap the strat as it prob was only profitable due to back fitting or I modify it if its not to bad.
I'll try give an example
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Is there anywhere where you can ask direct questions about the software perhaps with Adam directly? I noticed there is nothing on the QandA section. I’ve done a deep dive looking at software results and my results based on the selections that the software provides each morning. Now to be honest some strategies showed completely different results, which I can't understand why? I need to get some advice as i don’t understand if the filters provides selections and they meet the trade criteria at race start why they are not in the software results? does anyone know if you can message Adam directly?
