Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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If you click Icon next to pace letter in software it says this
A simplified pace filter based on the pace letters assigned to each horse in the race. L = Led, P = Prominent, H = Held up
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@wayne-ironside said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@John-Folan Yes John you have been amazing with the software. Now I do have one to share. It may have been done before but I haven't looked at all the strategies on here. No back fitting other than odds.
651pts profit 11% ROI
With this strategy you are using Pace letter been looking on google and can't find a answer what do the 3 different letters represent?
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@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
I'm adding a line to each strategy just to give my own opinion on it to help those who want to know how they are all doing beyond the profit and roi.
Nicely done. Very clear and concise. Loads going on which is good to see
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@alastair-todd yeah of course I'll give my appraisals
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@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@alastair-todd so a couple of things I am looking for myself, I want a fairly consistent result month to month, crazy variance is not really my thing. I also want to see that the back-fitted strategies perform well enough over the next couple of months and don't just revert to the mean of the basic filters. That said there are a few basic filters that are performing very well even with the back-fitting stripped out. At the moment I am happy to wait a couple of months before trying to guess what I want to use myself long term.
Thanks Martin, perhaps you might give me a little hint what you're thinking once you've made your mind up?
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@alastair-todd so a couple of things I am looking for myself, I want a fairly consistent result month to month, crazy variance is not really my thing. I also want to see that the back-fitted strategies perform well enough over the next couple of months and don't just revert to the mean of the basic filters. That said there are a few basic filters that are performing very well even with the back-fitting stripped out. At the moment I am happy to wait a couple of months before trying to guess what I want to use myself long term.
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@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
I'm adding a line to each strategy just to give my own opinion on it to help those who want to know how they are all doing beyond the profit and roi.
Thanks @martin, this is very helpful but I have to ask (showing my ignorance) how can we best work out which the most profitable strategy is likely to be? Presumably it is not quite as simple as just looking for the highest ROI and highest profit? I am currently using Keith's Back the Fave strategy and it has temporarily taken a slight downturn I think, in that the favourites seem to be being beaten about 65% of the time. Having said that, over the longer term it has done very well, this is not clear from the numbers however, hence my question.
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@wayne-ironside said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Yes I am playing with it now. Just wanted to post a strategy that wasn't backfitted.
I've played around with non-odds backfitting and the one thing I have added in is handicap races, non-handicaps are worth removing by the looks of it
0_1655701038077_rules_export (28).json -
@wayne-ironside said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@John-Folan Yes John you have been amazing with the software. Now I do have one to share. It may have been done before but I haven't looked at all the strategies on here. No back fitting other than odds.
651pts profit 11% ROI
Thanks for sharing!
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My two projects this week are to get the lay to backs working using the strategy builder and to have a pop at lay the field. Will try doing the different disciplines separately and will read Roger Kemp’s book again to get some ideas(free with a kindle unlimited subscription). Would love to make them work. Would appreciate any input. There’s enough clever people on here. We must be able to crack it.
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@john-folan well said John
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You see all those people moaning about backfitting and all that on the videos? They are the ones who will never make money trading. Too busy criticising everyone and everything else instead of concentrating on making money.
Just do as Martin has just done. He’s stripped out the extra filters and proved it’s profitable on the basics alone.
There is a big argument that course filters are backfitting. They aren’t. Courses have different characteristics/directions ground etc. So certain strategies will work on certain courses.
People generally shout ‘backfitting’ when they try a strategy and they have a couple of losers. They don’t understand variance and haven’t looked at the ebb and flow of individual results. Take Keith’s favourite backs for example. I am running a hybrid of what him and Lee have cooked up. It’s hit a 14% downturn. Going back through the individual results it’s done 15-20% drops a few times. So it is acting within the normal parameters. With a 34% strike rate this is going to happen. The individual results are possibly the best feature of the software. Combine that with the formulas I have shoved up on my Horse resources thread and you will be able to reinforce your confidence in a strategy or decide it’s not for you. Lay strategies should always have a higher strike rate that backing ones so maybe try those. There’s a few good low odds ones on offer here that should suit the nervous trader who wants to protect a small bank.
My plan is to have a couple of lay strategies, a couple of dobbing/trobbing(trobs are miles better as more reward Vs risk and less people do them) and a couple of backing. A nice portfolio spread. All different from each other with different levels of variance to hopefully offset each other.
Keep it simple and trust your data. Keep talking to everyone here and stuff the naysayers. This software is the best trading software for horses anywhere. Adam and co will also add in any new features that you want if they can and will improve things where possible(the new pace ratings are a huge improvement for example). Just be a little patient and you will make a living from this. Put it in perspective if you can make £3 a day that’s £1000 plus a year. Don’t focus on the grand focus on the £3 and the grand will sort itself. You get what I mean anyway.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
@wayne-ironside said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Yes I am playing with it now. Just wanted to post a strategy that wasn't backfitted.
You could argue that every single strategy is backfitted
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
Yes I am playing with it now. Just wanted to post a strategy that wasn't backfitted.
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@wayne-ironside You could try doing this strategy but using BSP and taking odds of 20-100. Profit goes up slightly to 720 but ROI and EV goes up a lot to 56% and £0.59. Obviously you will have quite a bit of variance but that appeared to be the case anyway
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@John-Folan Yes John you have been amazing with the software. Now I do have one to share. It may have been done before but I haven't looked at all the strategies on here. No back fitting other than odds.
651pts profit 11% ROI
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@john-folan Superb, I have a similar strategy which is running at 14pts profit and s/r of 55% over 140 races still ok but I know which one I prefer.
As @Wayne-Ironside said, we all owe you a huge debt of gratitude for the work you've done
