Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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Not seen any pre-off strategies, so here my first stab at one.
I'm working on the presumption that higher odds Beaten Faves will steam in before the start. I've not looked at any improvements with classes, race types, etc yet.
Any thoughts/feedback greatly appreciated.
P
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@martin Indeed. I've changed my automation to select 30s before start time... obviously there will still be some margin for error/delayed starts but hopefully will be a lot closer to the results than the testing so far. I'll post how it went in a couple of weeks.
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@martin Hi Martin so there will be a number of criteria for example I wouldn't bet the top two runners on Betfair, I would avoid top jockeys, I would look for hold up type horses………… but the main criteria would be how much the price drops in play. So for example I would look for no more than 15 ticks in the last say five races, or alternatively I would look at the percentage that's say horse A decreased in the last five races…………….if it was say on average dropped 25% from its BSP then I would look to put my lay in 25% of BSP and once the price was taken and then my back would be probably 15 to 20 ticks above that price if that makes sense?
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@nick-allan what criteria were you using to make your selections? we could just punch those into the software and create one
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I'm interested in purchasing the horse trading software, but in the past I've only really traded lay to back, now I know that you could create a system using the software, but having a look at the set forget strategies there doesn't appear to be one for a lay to back, is there any profitable lay to back strategies available that I could test?
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@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@james-menhenitt hmm a lot of people are making this mistake wonder how we can stop them doing that. A favourite strategy wants the favourite in the race that will not be known until right before the off.
Maybe a price ranking at the point of entry? That might give Adam and the Hamster that makes the server work a meltdown trying to implement tho.
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@james-menhenitt hmm a lot of people are making this mistake wonder how we can stop them doing that. A favourite strategy wants the favourite in the race that will not be known until right before the off.
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@john-folan Thanks John, yes - I know it won't be an exact science but the difference between my results and the software results for the strategy was far larger than it should be. Hopefully that will have cracked it to a greater extent.
Cheers
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@james-menhenitt it may have the odd difference still one minute out. But it will be as near as dammit. I’ve now swerved any where the variables aren’t known before the race. Just for pure accuracy. You are safe about a minute out though as you will win some and lose some.
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@paul-foster Thanks Paul, that's what I figured was the issue. I've amended my automation so will see if that correlates with the strategy results that the software throws back (£1 stakes only of course!)
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@james-menhenitt my understanding is that if you are using a strategy that requires you to back or lay the favourite then you need to select as close to the start as possible. You should only be placing your selections at 10-mins if it’s for a specific horse as this may provide better odds than BSP.
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Hi @Martin , hope you can shed some light on your Back the Favourite strategy as I seem to be going wrong somewhere. I'm running the qualifiers the night before, so for example on I ran on 28/6 the qualifiers for the 29/6. The 8pm Kempton qualifier was listed as Captain's Bar. I automate the strategy on BetAngel and at the moment have it set to place the back on the favourite 10m before post time.
For the 8pm at Kempton, that wasn't Captain's Bar any more - Guardian selected "Beauen Arrows" (presumably the fave at the time), which lost.
When I download the strategy results today, the 8pm Kempton Fave is shown as Fantasy Navigator, which was indeed the favourite at the start of the race and won.
Tracking £10 (like my strategy does) my actual results are a loss of £20, whereas according to the results it should have been £2,200 profit and at the moment, this looks like the culprit for the difference.
So my question is (finally!) does the strategy, when it comes to tracking the results take the favourite a minute before post? Should I try changing the automation to back 1 min before?
Cheers
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@nick-terracciano it's a good question and I'm thinking I may remove the ones I don't think are worth moving forward with from this thread once they have been forward tested for three months. It would be good to have some kind of ongoing rating system for them.
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@martin Was just getting tempted nice timing!!
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@alastair-todd ask me at the end of August as that's when I will be deciding which ones I will be investing in!
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@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@alastair-todd I have advised to wait two months to see how that one performs, so really you are betting into risky territory having not forward tested it properly.
Here is my one line assessment from the opening post on this thread 'The basic filter being at a loss is a concern here but the key will be how the back-fitted filter performs in the next 2 months.'
Got it Martin, clear as a bell - I'm out of this one at the moment. Linked to this, which strategy do you think is worth following (set and forget) at the moment? I know they all have percentages attached to them but would value your view.
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@alastair-todd I have advised to wait two months to see how that one performs, so really you are betting into risky territory having not forward tested it properly.
Here is my one line assessment from the opening post on this thread 'The basic filter being at a loss is a concern here but the key will be how the back-fitted filter performs in the next 2 months.'
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@chris-osborne said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@alastair-todd said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Wow, only 1 favourite has won today out of 12 so far. Perhaps I should have layed the fave instead - I would be quids in!
Is this Keith's Back the Favourites strategy, I stopped trading it and am paper trading, probably me but not seeing the results compared to the strategy graph.
Agreed Chris, but as I said to Martin, I unashamedly rely on other peoples' strategies on here so I'm not complaining (but I might switch to another strategy if it continues to suffer the fickle finger of fate - or just lay instead!)
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@martin said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@alastair-todd which strategy are you following?
It's Keith's Back the Fave but the slightly amended one with odds 2.8-5.99. I can't quite remember where the amendment came from. I am running at a strike rate of just under 35% at the moment. Trouble is, I'm such a novice with the horse racing software that I rely on the experts on here to give me a steer and to follow their strategies.
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@alastair-todd said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
Wow, only 1 favourite has won today out of 12 so far. Perhaps I should have layed the fave instead - I would be quids in!
Is this Keith's Back the Favourites strategy, I stopped trading it and am paper trading, probably me but not seeing the results compared to the strategy graph.
