Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@gwyn-richards Thanks, I'll have to forward test it. I've messed about with the time, If its 10m 30s to 10m before the race it's works well. BSP profit it level, as you say money may come in for that horse so by the start it could be favourite or second favourite. See what happens
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I don't have any daily qualifiers for today when there should be lots of them. Is it just my PC or does anyone else have the same problem? I've tried multiple browsers, clearing cookies etc
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@james-ruttley I tested a similar strategy with the third favourite a few months ago (although it was a back-to-lay strategy). The problem is, loads of money comes in just before the race starts and so the horse that goes off third fav is often not third fav even a few minutes earlier. I would guess that if you run the strategy using the third fav at BSP just before the off then it would be less profitable.
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@martin I'm not sure if flat profits is the right terminology but basically: adjusting the stake for each bet so that if it wins, you make £10 plus your stake back, eg odds of 2 you stake £10, odds of 11 you stake £1. It's an approach I heard them mention on the new ProBet podcast which is worth a listen I think (it's a betting rather than trading show but they take a statistical approach and they have some useful info about staking and stats. I don't know if it would be feasible to add sectional times into the horse trading software but they sound like a potentially useful approach for set and forget strategies...)
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@james-ruttley you need a closing time
Pre off as that strategy will back horse in play -
@james-ruttley can you screenshot the settings?
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@john-folan Thanks mate
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@james-ruttley said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
I wonder if someone could help. It looks like I've got a profitable strategy backing 3rd favourite 10 minutes before the off. When I've checked yesterdays results on the strategy builder the horses I've backed are different to the ones shown. Would the software just take the horses from the morning and the odds from those horses 10 minutes out?
The favourites in the software are the bsp favourites and not the favourites at your time of backing. I’ve asked Adam about price ranks at the time of entry as this seems to be an issue with a lot of strategies -
I wonder if someone could help. It looks like I've got a profitable strategy backing 3rd favourite 10 minutes before the off. When I've checked yesterdays results on the strategy builder the horses I've backed are different to the ones shown. Would the software just take the horses from the morning and the odds from those horses 10 minutes out?
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@gwyn-richards what's flat profits? that's a huge difference!
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@john-folan Probably worth me taking a break from trading it in late summer in future then, or at least refining it. Seems to be a clear pattern both last year and this year.
I backtested the staking plans and the flat stakes actually performed much better overall, although there does seem to be seasonal variation. Maybe sticking to flat stakes but reducing/stopping trading in late summer is the way to go. The massive divergence in profits on the graph below happens between March and June.
I'll do some more testing when I get chance anyway.
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@martin thanks for clarifying that.
For your back the favourite strategy am I right in thinking that it is the favourite for that race, not necessarily the selection that comes up?
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@rachel-dawes yeah only the horses listed can qualify. If you look at the criteria on the strategy we want horses that have won 30% or less of their races. So if we choose horses who have won more than 30% we will reduce any possible edge (maybe even heading into negative equity territory). Hope this makes sense! Maybe we should have an FAQ on all our strategies.
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Apologies if this is in the wrong place. I just wanted to clarify which selections should be traded using Martins short odds lay strategy. The qualifiers have given two horses for a race, neither of which fall into the odds range but the favourite in the race is odds on. Is it the race that qualifies? Or does it have to be one the horses that is shown as long as they are in the odds range?
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@gwyn-richards said in ***Horse Racing Shared Strategies Megathread + Downloads***:
@john-folan I'll take a look at that too! I'm still following the strategy although currently in the red overall. Looks as though it doesn't do as well in August to October (haven't checked yet but is it because of the flat season ending?).
One thing I have been looking at is staking. The strategy is doing a lot better with flat profit staking than with flat stakes. Graph below shows betting to 10 pound profits vs flat 1 pound stakes.
I make you right there. Nice work on the staking. I’ve started looking at liability staking for lays. Makes a differcne in places. Good to take different slants on things
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@john-folan I'll take a look at that too! I'm still following the strategy although currently in the red overall. Looks as though it doesn't do as well in August to October (haven't checked yet but is it because of the flat season ending?).
One thing I have been looking at is staking. The strategy is doing a lot better with flat profit staking than with flat stakes. Graph below shows betting to 10 pound profits vs flat 1 pound stakes.
