Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
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@Joseph-Henderson No such thing as a silly question
This caught me out and then I read the small print
The favourites filter is based on the BSP and not as at the time the bet is placed. It would be great to have this feature as obviously you will never know the true price rank before the off and the further back in time you go, the more inaccurate you are when back testing a strategy.
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Apologies if this is a silly question. I am struggling to understand the time to place bets feature on the software. I had an example the other day where the software criteria was set to place 10 seconds before the race start. My selected horse was third fav (by a fine margin) at this point, however went off second fav (based on BSP). I placed the bet as at 10 seconds out the criteria was fulfilled, but the software has not recorded the horse as a trade. Does the favourite filter in the software base it off the BSPs when looking at results? Thanks
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example. If the race classification is 'Fillies' then a fillie is going to win whichever way you bet.
I have see other strats with Gender so i am sure there is benefit in it but gender is dependent on race type (or can be) so you might want to exclude single sex races if gender is something you are filtering on.
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@Caroline-Middlebrook all female horse race for example.
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@Jonathan-Jones said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
An interesting one. Seen a couple of strategies on here with the gender filter. Make sure you cross reference race classification to make sure the gender is valid and not just a product of the actual race.
Hi Jonathan, what do you mean by "product of the actual race"?
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I wouldnt add that to the presets. Presets are mainly used by new people so they should be executable and compare well in real execution to the backtest. If i knew 10 mins out what horse would be 3rd at BSP (which is exactly what this stratregy is saying) i wouldnt be spending my time here. I would be on a massive sailing boat in the med.
Not saying its a junker though, because if you change the time to just before the race its still profitable (at least for 2022 and 2023 its very nice, wondering was it created as i do them by just testing on 2022) but its one that needs running for real and watching real results. Its not one for new people.
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@Martin Well I have had a further look into it by downloading all the stats, and I can't see anything wrong with it or any obvious potential for it to bomb.
My concern would be that the stats it is using seem pretty random. I like to have some kind of measurable factor in my strategies, so for example Laying the Top Weight in certain race types and distances, in my mind (which can be a weird place sometimes) the weight affects the performance as does the race type and the distance, so in theory there should be a correlation between the factors and the results should show some kind of trend. With this Lay the 3rd Fav strategy, there is nothing like that, it just appears to be complete coincidence that the various factors work together and are producing a (currently) profitable strategy, and seem to have been doing so for over a year on the backtesting.
I had a look at the individual results for July 2021, which was by far the biggest losing month, and nothing jumps out as to why, selections seem consistent with all other months, and its just a random spate of 3rd Fav winners, there is nothing to say it will or won't happen again.
So, seeing as the sun is shining, I shall be making hay and when (if) it starts to nosedive, stop and think about it, by then we should have some decent forward testing results.
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@George-Bowling Just checked and none showing for today. Can anyone confirm that’s correct?
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An interesting one. Seen a couple of strategies on here with the gender filter. Make sure you cross reference race classification to make sure the gender is valid and not just a product of the actual race.
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@Joseph-Henderson just came here to check this. I don't have any qualifiers showing at all for this strategy atm..... not even for tomorrow.
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@Andy-Lucy Don't think there are any qualifiers for this strategy for today - there are some showing for tomorrow though
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@Caroline-Middlebrook said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Horse Gender..... I have noticed that most of my lay strategies seem to work well only on fillies & geldings, and back strategies are the opposite, working well only on colts, horses & mares. Yet, I've never seen gender mentioned either in this forum or anywhere else related to betting strategies.
It makes me wonder why? I don't yet know enough about horse racing to really understand the difference in genders other than the basics of their age etc. But the patterns in the BTC software at least seem very clear, yet I'm really doubting the strategies that I have come up with based on gender. Can anyone shed any light?
Don't doubt there are some obvious differences. Gender is an obvious filter. It isn't discussed enough. Probably because we do not want to get in trouble for assuming the horses gender and offending it ;).
Seriously though, keep plugging away there. Gender as well as age throws up some interesting ideas filter wise.
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Horse Gender..... I have noticed that most of my lay strategies seem to work well only on fillies & geldings, and back strategies are the opposite, working well only on colts, horses & mares. Yet, I've never seen gender mentioned either in this forum or anywhere else related to betting strategies.
It makes me wonder why? I don't yet know enough about horse racing to really understand the difference in genders other than the basics of their age etc. But the patterns in the BTC software at least seem very clear, yet I'm really doubting the strategies that I have come up with based on gender. Can anyone shed any light?
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@Martin thank you
i have uploaded now, and was different file to first one i used so fingers crossed. hopefully start to get selections now, i shall check in an hour to see if there coming through on daily qualifiers. obviously i havent used this strat before, is it just a case of lay the selection given if it is 3rd fav and within odds range 2-7 between 10 mins pre race and the official start time? thanks -
@Andy-Lucy here you go: rules_export (16).json
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@Martin hi yes please do that will help me out as some reason i cant currently get the selections to come through on the software for that. i shall be having another go today as must need to re-import the file or something. i am keen to add this to the other few i do daily.
