Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
-
@Greg-Mitchell nice work keep me updated!
-
@Martin I can't see anything obviously wrong with it. It is certainly having a good run and I guess only time will tell.
But the software backtesting certainly seems to indicate it is pretty consistent, well since May 2022 anyway. It is showing quite a fluctuation before then! And certainly if you were to simply lay every 3rd favourite with no other criteria, the strike rate is 87% and shows a profit to level stakes.
I would say that some of the filter criteria are a bit "daft", for example it selects races at Ascot but then takes them out because it is a galloping course.
As with any of these strategies, I like to take the raw data out of the software into Excel and do my own analysis, which I am currently doing to see if I spot anything unusual. Will let you know how I get on.
-
@Greg-Mitchell anything you can see being a problem with it, it's been flying but wondering if it's in 'too good to be true' territory
-
@Martin You know if you do, it will bomb!!
-
@Greg-Mitchell you can on bfbm
-
-
@Tony-Hastie The only criteria stopping you just using the race and getting the bot to chose the 3rd Fav is the horse age as it has to be 0 to 9. If you can include that in the bot then away you go.
-
Im trying to automate the Lay the 3rd fav strategy. Do I need to incorporate the nominated horse into this strategy or is the software putting more emphasis on the particular race so I can just put the race in and let the bot choose the 3rd fav(should it meet the odds criteria?) I asked this last week and am still a little unclear on how to proceed...
-
@Martin
That one lays odds 3 to 7 on forecast price rank 1 (so laying a tipster favourite basically). Its not one i run on live yet but am hoping to add it to my live list this week. -
@Jonathan-Jones spot on.
It's also normal for any strategy have have peaks and troughs, the problem is people think a winning strategy will win every month and that's just not the case.
The main thing is to have a portfolio of strategies so that when that does happen the others pick it up.
It's about find 5+ quality ones that you believe in.
What's that strategy going for by the way? Great results!
-
Yep. Like the Pace Lays or quite a few others. Has an extended period of just sideways movement but then months later just comes back to life. This one has been in my archive since last October as i thought it was overly back fitted to the data but now its taken off again.
I wouldnt run Pace Lays as a backing strat just because its looking that way now. Fair chance it will revert to form in a month or so.
-
@Jonathan-Jones not really sure what I’m looking at on this graph. Is it basically saying the strategy is still profitable?
-
@dave-tancock you could look to see whether race type has an impact. Summer racing vs winter
-
Like this:
Was created on the 1st September last year. Instantly goes flat. Picked up very nice again now though. Thats pretty much why i use the archive function rather than deleting stuff.
-
You can have two months of a strategy going to crap and then it recovers. When I’m feeling human I’ll post a couple of examples from what I’m running. More than five minutes in front of a computer screen and I feel like throwing up at the moment. I thought covid was over?
-
@dave-tancock yeah you are right, up 100pts in forward testing overall but at the same level now that it was in Sept
-
@Martin is it just me or is the pace lays strategy struggling. I’m approx £35 down over the last 5-6 weeks. For reference this is with £1 stakes
-
