Horse Racing Strategies Megathread
-
@dave-tancock that's the problem with a strategy that lays at high odds, the bad months will feel rough. Only suggestion would be to either lower odds or use a different strategy that uses less stake/liability ratio
-
@Martin from £1 stakes -£29.52. I’m only trading ones that appear on the software, which is the strategy in this post. It has 82% strike rate this month, any losing trades seem to be horses at higher odds so wiped out any profit. Tried restricting odds/courses but it lowers the overall profit and strike rate. Any suggestions?
-
@dave-tancock what's your p&l on it this month? I'm 13pts up but have missed a couple of days
-
@dave-tancock said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
Lay the beaten favourite did ok yesterday 4 winning trades, but the 5th was a losing trade with odds of 13.
. Hoping this is just variance but it’s gonna take a while to recover from this month I think.I had two on mine yesterday. Had a bad run the last week and a half. Nothing that hasn't happened befopre
-
Lay the beaten favourite did ok yesterday 4 winning trades, but the 5th was a losing trade with odds of 13.
. Hoping this is just variance but it’s gonna take a while to recover from this month I think. -
@John-Folan perfect. Appreciate the help.
-
@dave-tancock said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@John-Folan appreciate that mate. Is it different to what’s at the top of this post? I did play around with the odds but restricting them seems to make no real difference to profit or strike rate.
It’s a little different but the premise is the same so mostly the same selections. I do have it limited to one selection per race. Not looked at the one on here so not sure if that’s the same
-
@John-Folan appreciate that mate. Is it different to what’s at the top of this post? I did play around with the odds but restricting them seems to make no real difference to profit or strike rate.
-
@dave-tancock said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
seriously considering dropping lay the beaten favourite. struggled last month, struggled this month and today alone its about £20 down to £1 stakes. think it has been in profit 1 month in the last 4 for me. seem to get a few successful trades and then a high priced favourite wins and wipes out any profit made on that strategy. has anyone made any tweaks to up the strike rate or am i better off just calling it quits with this one?
I’ll stick my version up tomorrow or Monday. I’ve got a years worth of live trades and despite the battering it’s taken this last week it’s well in front over the year. It’s taken battering before and always recovers.
-
seriously considering dropping lay the beaten favourite. struggled last month, struggled this month and today alone its about £20 down to £1 stakes. think it has been in profit 1 month in the last 4 for me. seem to get a few successful trades and then a high priced favourite wins and wipes out any profit made on that strategy. has anyone made any tweaks to up the strike rate or am i better off just calling it quits with this one?
-
Bit of a Betfair nightmare this afternoon. Just before the 1610 York race, Betfair crashed and I was just laying Summerghand from the LBF filter. BF kept crashing so I re-entered the bet as it said there were no placed bets.
The net result is that I layed it three times and the b****y horse was given EQUAL FIRST! What's that all about?!
-
Is the back the favourite strategy from the presets no longer recommended if it’s not in this thread anymore?
-
Just checked my bots for Lay Beaten Fav & Lay Third Fav against software for last 6 days up to yesterday, seem to be working fine:
-
its the third favourite and you will find people tend to trade those a lot. They switch places all the time (more than if it was favourite). Not sure if its going to be exactly 50% but either way its not a backtested strategy. Also, you ever seen a race go off on time? Some people dont care and will use favourites anyway, if you are the sort who likes to match up your bets every day and check the software (like i do) then you cant use that criteria. There is an update coming that will sort that but at the moment i avoid them.
-
@David-Polkey The URL doesn't work for Betdaq. I download to excel, usually the night before then manually load up guardian in BA.
-
Thats bang on isnt it - so I guess its how I've got BFBM set up if you are also importing selections directly using the URL. If you are, whats your refresh rate for selections?
-
-
@Jonathan-Jones
Hi Jonathan - I was aware that software uses BSP and there may be some discrepancy if I lay 5-10 secs out. What does surprise me is the 50% number. I would never have thought it to be that high. Will be reconsidering my use of the Lay 3rd Fav in light of that and also I must have second thoughts as well arount the Back The Fav at the Off as well.
-
@Greg-Mitchell said in Horse Racing Strategies Megathread:
@Dan-MacKinnon Yes Lay Beaten Fav
I've just checked mine and it seems to be running OK.
I also saw that in the past 3 weeks I've made a loss of about 10 points
Not touching it again until October now
