MM's attempt at a blog which wont be a blog
-
@mark-maguire I've just had a look at the National League and there's some relatively big teams in there. Notts Co., Southend, Chesterfield, Grimsby, Stockport.
I also realise every time someone says a "big team" is in the wrong league it suggests the likes of Sutton or Harrogate shouldn't be in the Football League. I meant, the state of football is shocking that those clubs are there due to poor owners... well Notts Co, definitely.
-
@dan-mackinnon I'm still waiting to abuse Wigan after they started singing "We'll never play you again" when we'd been relegated to Div 1 and they were in the middle of spending Dave Whelan's money to go to the premier league.. Stockport on their way back now and I'm not saying I hold grudges but whenever it happens I'll be there to tell the Pie Heads that they were wrong
:smiling_face_with_open_mouth_closed_eyes: -
@mark-maguire I guess @Martin would also remember Wilbraham as we got him from Norwich. His nickname at Palace was Wilbrahimovic. I think he only scored 1 goal for us and I was there to witness it. Wigan away in the FA cup. The coldest I've ever been!
-
@dan-mackinnon I also remember going to Selhurst for a game against Wimbledon - we'd lost 10 in a row and not scored I think - so when we scored we tried to start a conga>> stewards stopped us and so was born the now legendary at County..
"Station-ary Conga, Station-ary Conga la la la " where we marched on the spot
-
@dan-mackinnon Ah yes I remember that one too - heady days for us County fans.
My first involvement working in football was at County started by being invited on to the board and thats when Albie (Aaron Wilbraham) was a kid - remember him not having a pot to P*ss in and needing help because his knackered old banger of a car was done in and his wages weren't high enough so we tried to get a sponsor to help him out . That was when he was 17/18 years old, had a decent career the lad.. not the brightest
As for Kuqi - dodgy agents and delusions of grandeur ruined a promising career
-
@mark-maguire I remember Crystal Palace playing Stockport, last day of the season in 2001 and we needed a win to stay up. Dougie Freedman scored in the 87th minute. There might have been a hint of handball in the build up.
Stockport had 2 strikers that day who went on to play for us. Kuqi (less said the better) and Wilbraham
-
@martin Indeed and two of my biggest memories were Norwich away - 1st was a night match where I got caught in a horrible traffic jam and didn’t arrive til half time by which time we were 3-0 down and the stewards checked if I was sure I still wanted to go in (we drew the second half 1-1 I think
)Then our last game in the championship was at your place and we decided to go out in style so me and a few mates booked a fleet of limos - had a hell or a day out and to be fair your fans were class with us that day
-
@mark-maguire I remember when Stockport were in what is now the Championship collecting panini stickers!
-
I should add that as a Stockport fan we have been for years singing the song..
"Wembley, Wembley, Its a famous Pub in Adswood and its called the Wembley"
Editors note:
Wembley has to be pronounced wemberlee
Its an actual dodgy pub called the Wembley in dodgy area of Stockport.
Hope this helps
-
So a busy couple of days, back in England since yesterday and en route to Wemberlee for a meeting today. Time to reflect and analyse. Will try and update on Sunday's trades later but keen for this not to be just listing every trade every day . What I can say is Sunday was a day I had to work bloody hard at it .. more like expected Saturday to be and on the train back north later I'll try and expand on that.
Today is very very quiet on the filters. Only a couple of Possibles but again will post those when analysed.
I though it worth just showing a capture of my spreadsheet - I'll start with the analysis summary as below:
First time I've tried to upload so hope it works.
So my process is that I download filter results and copy and paste to the tab of the relevant filter on my spreadsheet. I have a tab for each feeding into a P&L page. Going forward I'll post snap shots of different sections.
For this part a bit of an explainer.. not that I want to insult your intelligence, but perhaps worth noting: Looking at Columns left to right..
- Date, Country and Home and Away Teams copied and pasted from BTC Filters
- Home Odds, Away odds I interrogate Flashscore/Sofa Score on the day for the match odds and enter.1.95 and below it goes green (conditional formatting) above that it goes red ( its not pink honest)
The rest of the columns come from my poisson analysis:
- % Chance of 02.5. Green if over 70% Red Below that.
- Home projected goals, 2 and above green.
- Away projected goals, 2 and above green ..
NB I'm starting to look at 2-1, 1-2 scorelines as borderline because they seem to be almost default - and the per centage of successful trades where the projected score is a variance to that is looking significant - another deep dive due..
- Odds 02.5 .. don't ask me why I didnt put this next to percentage - its just the way it happened at the start and the faff of changing it.. plus I'm superstitious about changing it cos it works
- Percentage and Odds of FHG over 85% is green.
- Percentage and Odds of 01.5 over 85% is green.
Once I have those in place I go to stage two - of which more later...
-
@mark-maguire Get in, been waiting for this for a while.
Excellent first post. Great to see you posting here, I think its the next step for you as well - you are moving closely to where you want to be.
Keep up the good work matey.
-
Ok so todays analysis done.
02.5 TRADES:
The following are green (reasonable aggressive approach):Fiorentina vs Sassulo
PSG vs Bordeaux (Odds Value may delay entry)
Leverkusen vs Koln
Porto vs TondelaYellow - depends on team news and caution required:
Sittard vs Willem (had a small stake.. may be out sooner rather than later because IPS quiet at present)
Karlshurer vs Regensberg stats avg and odds close but 94% FHG
Lausanne vs Young Boys .. away favourite so caution, maybe a slow start (84% FHG) otherwise strong stats
Kisvarda vs Gymriot Stats ok but 97% FHG and Home Fav
Utrecht vs PSV - Odds closer than suggested
Basel vs Servette - Odds close but 95% FHG
Arsenal vs Leicester .. Leics turned corner defensively ?
Dortmund vs Armenia Concern over Dortmund reliability
Alkmaar vs Twente - Home fav, 96% FHG, Stats mixedRed:
Decided to avoid
Würziger vs Dortmund II - odd close and concern about the level. Stats dont stack up
Metz vs Lens - Away fav and stats mixed plus odds close
Midjiyland vs Copenhagen - Odds close, stats not best, FHG 86% and can't spell Home Team
Torino vs Inter Stats poor, 73% FHG Away Fav01.5 wise
PSG if the odds ever get there (need 1.3)
Lausanne
Metz if IPS stack up
Basel
Alkmaar -
@mark-maguire wowser! need to grab a drink and read this blog not-blog
-
Zurich vs St Gallen
Nice and easy green on this with goal after 7 minutes. Was tempted to stay in because I thought Zurich were favourite but had traded aggressively so took the green and cashed out.Plzeň vs Teplice
This went nicely with IPS allowing three drips to the goal on 44 mins and exited for very healthy greenEarlier green with Hatayspor vs Kargumruk and Salertina vs Sassuolo
In the yellow zone:Mechelen vs Charleroi
The concern here was the odds were close but stats were good – so a middle sized staked at kick off was repaid with a goal after five minutes, took green at that point.Trabanspor vs Gozetepe
I liked the strength of the home favourite, the stats were average at best other than 91% FHG so small stake at kick off with the intention of monitoring IPS – these were ridiculously strong so benefitted from further staking and two goals in four minutes to take healthy greenVaduz vs Kriens
Concern was mixed stats but 95% FHG and good team news for Vaduz (all scorers playing) and strong home favourite made me trade – out with green on 8 minsAmiens vs Nancy
Had a nibble at this but didn’t go beyond second drip because IPS were horrible, out for small red.Valenciennes vs Dijon
Dijons leading goal scorer in a goal drought, close odds and below 90% FHG made me sit this out. .. happily avoiding a nil nil .. doesn’t always work that way.Oostende vs Bruge
Concern was Away Favourite and FHG less than 90% but other stats were strong and while they were away I saw Bruge as strong Favourite – staked cautiously but goal came nicely just after second drip giving healthy greenMoenchengladbach vs Hertha
Concern was two poor teams, but felt like Borussia should win, stats were good with 96% FHG so traded and IPS were going right way but took green after second drip with goal on 24.Along with some healthy green on 01.5’s this was the best Saturday in a while… I was going to blame the non blog if it went wrong.
Happy with a plus 3.5 points for the day overall. -
@chris-osborne Thanks Chris
-
Nice read Mark and god luck
-
@matt-wood I'll try .. although every idea I've had in my life started out as a good idea.. its only when it turned out some (plenty) of them weren't that I found out they weren't
-
@dan-mackinnon thanks Dan always happy to discuss food..
-
@mark-maguire said in MM's attempt at a blog which wont be a blog:
@matt-wood thanks Matt appreciated .. can I suggest you only pinch the good ideas not the bad ones
I can certainly do that :). If you would kindly identify which are which when you post
-
@matt-wood thanks Matt appreciated .. can I suggest you only pinch the good ideas not the bad ones
