MM's attempt at a blog which wont be a blog
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Right hello all I've been scarce on here for a week or so because other stuff got in the way of trading, but I've decided to try and commit to writing something reasonably regularly here to hold myself to account - I've partly had my arm twisted behind my back (no names
) but genuinely think its the next, important step forward for me.So a bit of background. I've had two main careers - Hospitality and Football. I have always worked ridiculous, unsociable hours the pay off being experiences and memories which will last a life time. My dual passions in life being fine food/wine along with Football, I've worked in the sectors which I love. In the past I started a restaurant from scratch and got a Michelin Star and have run around on the pitch at Wembley celebrating with players as the club I worked at were promoted .. but all of that has come with considerable sacrifice of normal life.. I've always been completely submerged in my career
Now I split my time between France and England - in France I'm overseeing a Hospitality Business, In England I'm working as a consultant in Football. Trading has been in my mind for about three or four years but it wasn't till I found BTC that I really started to find the tools to help me develop the ideas I had and frankly if it wasn't for the guys creating this place I'd have never followed it through.
I've been educating myself properly for just over a year and trialled/ delved/investigated and challenged more theories and directions than I can even remember and the results from a combination of paper trading and small stakes gradually growing stakes have been encouraging almost from day one.
I've been risk averse. Rightly so but sometimes to a fault. But a continuous focus has been understanding the reds rather than the greens, finding commonalities and where possible maximising Green, minimising Red.
So to start my journey I'm trading football. Will try and learn other stuff down the line. But focus on Football for the moment.
I trade Overs. 2.5 and 1.5 as well as dabbling in correct score and LTD/LCS when IPS on my filters throws them up.
I have kept in depth stats since day one, times of goals scored, match results and the impact of goal times on the number of goals scored and this has thrown up a LCS strategy based on the gap between the first two goals which I'm currently working to refine.
My approach has always been to combine football knowledge with a stats approach because I think somewhere in between the two lies the truth - football is by its very nature random, a goal involves skill, luck, mistakes, fate, nature, physics, all conspiring at the same moment to occur, when you work in football thats why you hear managers talking about getting the ball in the right areas.. about fitness (high intensity distances) etc because the harder you work, the more you do the right things the more you chances you give yourself of a goal being scored. So the stats I use (Shots on target etc) are more orientated towards the right things happening than the goals teams have scored in recent games .. because I've also got a typical football persons sods law approach that if teams have scored a heap of goals .. it'll even itself out and goals will dry up.
In all of this one of the biggest challenges for me has been arguing with myself - I export my filters, analyse the Stats - looking at % chance of 02.5, 01.5 and FHG and then trying to analyse other factors (Form/Tiredness/ELO ratings from BTC, Relative Performance) - all of this is designed to help me narrow down selections and decide my staking level - which I split into avoid, stake cautiously and stake aggressively.
The final bit is team news and most recent games. If any doubts are thrown up by those - I down grade the staking plan, if the news is positive then it reaffirms my aggressive approach.
In saying all this I know there are much simpler approaches out there, I envy them in a way but this somewhat lengthy approach is what gives me the confidence and tools I feel I need. The phase I'm now moving into is really narrowing down the games I trade on busy days.
On a Saturday I probably spend about three hours preparing and analysing for the games todays list from various filters involves 18 games - of which 4 are green .. trade aggressively, 5 are red .. leave alone, and the others inspire caution. For those games it will finally depend on team news and I will start cautiously and monitor IPS.
Staking wise I can tell you that over 40% of my success is in the first 20 minutes, so I trade from the start - 1/4 of my stake at kick off and the second 14 after 15 minutes is automatic. The third after 35 mins depends on IPS (mainly SOT - minimum of 2 - analysis of stats has shown me that for the main leagues it takes an average of around 3 SOT per goal over the season with small variances) this therefore dictates whether I enter the third 1/4 at 35.. and again at 45 mins based on further IPS being favourable.
If a goal is scored I'm out.If there is no goal by the 60th minute I am out taking Red. on over 3000 games there are only around 10% with a first goal after 60 mins (5% with no goal) so stats wise theres no genuine value in me hanging around after sixty minutes.
Im constantly reviewing, refining and finding new directions - sometimes its down dead ends but sometimes it takes me somewhere exciting but always, always I end up balancing the stats dive with the football/human factors and thats a balance I want to protect.
So whats the aim ..
I believe I can put myself into a position that by the end of this calendar year I can give myself the choice to do this full time. Thats the decision I will take at that point but I don't want to mess about at this. I want to prove to myself that I could earn at least what I'm earning from my other work.
That may sound a bold claim but the growth in my bank and consistent performance of my filters, depth of analysis of my results indicate I can get there. I managed to grow my bank significantly in February - the only thing's that trip me up at present are time (if I include trading I'm basically working three jobs), I've obviously been through all the classic errors of chasing, and anger and lack of discipline and occasionally over trading, but I hope that's behind me and certainly doing this will help with that.
This will be a life style choice for me - if I can make that decision by next year then I can pick and choose what else I do and where I live but also most importantly finally create some time for my kids - the drive to want to reward them and do good things for them is my main motivation in all this.
So you will be pleased to know not all the posts will be lengthy like this. I won't be able to post every day, or every trade, simply because at times I am juggling things, but I will be as transparent as I can be and will trying and explain my rationale - I'll try and post pretty much all of my main selections and some of the borderline ones but wont confuse it with secondary, or currently being tested strategies.
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Madness yesterday trying to oversee French Chefs and Waiters while squeezing in some trades - again my intention being to update results while in England (fly back early tomorrow).
Couple of thoughts which are leading me down my analysis route - league positions - for my newer filters I'm going to start adding them I think to record against data, a mixture of theories which tend to lead me away from certain trades.. two teams close to each other in the table in midtable leads to unpredictability ? Top versus bottom (especially when Top are away) = park the bus and slow start ? Two teams near the top and close in the league game can be tight etc etc but need//want to test these theories to see if there's anything that they can add to my decision making.
Next one is the discipline of reviewing the last few games results just to check whether an individual result may have skewed stats .. a six nil for example in one match. Equally I'm increasingly put off by one or more recent nil nils for either team. I seem to be finding more and more reasons to avoid trades which ultimately whilst nerve wracking is probably a good thing.
Todays list - which will be subject to final analysis is :
A few concerns over team form and league positions and on the only 01.5 trade the level is a concern. Need to spend time restricting leagues.
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Madness continues over here but a few days in England from Tuesday so will post my results tables from the last couple of days which have been very nice to be fair.
Todays selections below - note caution regarding late team news and I always worry a little about teams who have had tough games in Europe.
Usual rules apply - Drip feeding 02.5 out after 60 mins regardless.
LTD as per Ryans betgreen LTD rules.
01.5 I don't get involved unless odds reach 1.3.
Proper updates when I can sit down and detail the results for those interested.
Note some overnight trades already taken place.
Have a good day all.
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Need to read this non blog in more details - strategies around ratings appeal to me
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@keith-anderson said in MM's attempt at a blog which wont be a blog:
Don't let those French fucks away with it. They've a habit of throwing in the towel!!
Glad the trading is going well. Thanks for the update
Is that the kitchen towel they’re throwing in?
I’ll get my coat
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@matt-wood thanks Matt important thing is its just what works for me - always seems like their are little pieces of the jigsaw coming forward - like finding a way of adding ELO's to filters and using the criteria in filters for an either/or - in other words I've asked my filter with LTD to give me games where the Home Side ELO is x greater than away OR away ELO is greater than home by X plus one because I feel away favourites need to be even stronger ELO wise. So the filter is set to match 4 of the 5 criteria not all of them. It was watching one of @Ryans recent videos which led me down that route ..always learning !!
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@keith-anderson I won't let them beat me Keith .. phrase of the week is "Mais C;'est pas comme ca en France" .. well its about time it was
Meanwhile Marie Le Penn advocating closer ties with Russia if she wins the election ..omfg !!! -
@mark-maguire This sheet is a thing of beauty and well played!
Great write up, enjoyed reading it.
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Don't let those French fucks away with it. They've a habit of throwing in the towel!!
Glad the trading is going well. Thanks for the update
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@mark-maguire amazing read well done!
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Trying to catch up on lots of content on BTC after a hell of a week on the consultancy front, dealing with emotional French staff who get fatigued after 39 hours of work and a little criticism of their standards - trying to deliver the message that their Chefs frustrate me because they have the best ingredients in the world and the best reputation for their history but they are resting on their laurels and need to wake up to the standards and progress elsewhere - not a popular conversation.
Some interesting stuff on the football side too - was shown some stats software aimed at clubs opposition analysis - which was mental in its detail.. some really thought proving stuff like breaking down set piece effectiveness of individual clubs and players. Which areas of the pitch the goals come from and mapping the build up etc.
On the trading front the madness made me focus on less opportunities and to be more selective which meant it was a fully green week again. Frustrated I havent had time to properly update on here but bank growth since I started doing this "not "blog is very healthy indeed and with a week in England next week I hope I can put some time into posting some results on here.
Todays selections are here. Usual rules apply (drip feed 02.5 from kick off then automatic second drip on 15, 3rd drip 35 mins if IPS stack up - and again on 45 mins if further progressive IPS, out after a goal or on 60 mins regardless). 01.5 in at start - depending on time of goal and IPS will green up or let run. LTD is as per Ryans Betgreen rules - I've tweaked the filter to include ELO's - Final decisions will be made on team news and preference always for Home Fav and Strong ELO (i.e bigger gap).
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Whisper it but its been a good week so far.
As the weekend comes into play my biggest challenge as ever will be not over trading and being suitably selective from the long list.
Note the comments I make on these on the right hand side begin to inform my staking and/or whether to leave alone, and this is reaffirmed by team news and a final review of form/league positions. For example I hate the games where 8th plays 9th and the odds are close.
Anyway will narrow down from these, only danger today is a busy day on the consultancy so will have to stick to my promise of only trading when it has my full and undivided attention - so fingers crossed I get to trade at least a couple:
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So a decent day yesterday 3 points green.Only small dent was Kaiser Chiefs LTD trade but got our plenty early.
Today very few and they don't jump off the page so depending on team news and review may not trade some or any:
Singapore needs some diligence because stats look ridiculous and projected score of 5-2 so odds will probably be prohibitive.
Update :
A second Japan game came up on LTD filter: Nagoyan vs Shonan
Traded both that and the Kawasaki game - First was green, Kawasaki took small red at 70 mins while nil nil.
The Singapore game was indeed ridiculous - 3-3 in the end, nice green on Overs Markets and a correct score trade (greened at 3-2)
Another LTD trade has come up in South Africa but caution as I don't know the league (Maccabi vs Mamelodi)
Remaining Over 2.5 trades are cautious too: Polish game (Puzscza) concerns over the level, the stats and closeness of odds and ELO's so will leave alone
Augsburg game will look at team news but odds are close between teams which is a worry.
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Out with green after Luton goal for LTD. Leaving it in with 01.5 will watch IPS.
Just Bromley to go but will exit at 70 without goal
Edit... out with Kings Lynn goal, all green but will do especially with concerns over Bromley after their semi final on Saturday
Further Edit - second goal at Peterborough gives nice green on 01.5
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got out of Kaiser game early as game was dead.
Left Wrexham alone because they had a big game on Saturday but they've made mincemeat of Barnet - no prob move on
Greened up LTD after second goal MKD
Waiting on first goal at Peterborough - P'Boro upturn in form and pressure on Luton means staking has been cautious
Waiting on LTD Bromley but Bromley had Wembley game Saturday so staking minimal
great to see another update. I love your methodology with this trading style. Something I need to learn going forward.