Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Hi guys, probably my first proper post. When you are testing strategies do you use a simulator?, if so what. Or do you buy some historical data or just use your own match records as you go along.
Thanks
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@martin back 1.25 but i do like to average higher.
Personally in my current trading i average 1.35
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@alastair-todd This sounds very similar to mine. I've been changing my criteria for recording data but the longest streak is 205 games with 80.5% SR
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@Martin Keen to get involved in the collaboration, it's a great initiative but not sure how much I have to offer. I have a simple 1.5 goals strategy which has a strike rate of 81%, although over only 400 games so far, with average lay odds of 3.85. Having said that, since Boxing Day I have taken slightly higher lay odds to increase the strike rate and have been averaging lay odds of 4.5 with slightly lower stakes. Not sure what I can add but happy to be involved.
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@sean-fitzgerald nice one how many games?
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There was a good LTD set and forget that
@Stuart-Capstick had going for a while. I set my own filter based off it which has been profitable for me but Stuart may have better data perhaps. -
@martin Always seems to be when my confidence grows and I think about increasing the % of the bank. Isnt that always the way though.
Tend to always start with a 100 bank and then do 0.25% stakes with compounding profit. Some start of fantastic and show great profit after quite a few bets, but then it just goes south for some reason. No idea why, but sure I will hit something good soon that will have long term profit on it..... well I hope I do
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@martin Hi Martin, can I make a suggestion regarding this. There appears to be a lot of people interested in contributing and a lot of ideas being put forward but I think that there will need to be some structure to it to get the best out of it as with everyone throwing ideas, filters and results into the mix then we could just get lost in all the data flying about.
Would it be worthwhile creating smaller groups where each group is looking at a different market or angle? So for example have a group looking at O1.5, another one at O2.5, another one doing LTD, U2.5 etc?
These groups could share ideas, develop filters and track results and provide feedback to to the community where the filters, trading angles could be fine tuned further.
Just a thought anyway.
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@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@lee-woodman, @dan-mackinnon, @matt-wood, @dan-peacey and @Wayne-Ironside feel free to get involved here with your current strategies we have spoken about if you so wish
Interested in sharing, Just need to do some work on them before I share. I certainly like this idea @Martin.
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@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@james-rome looks good mate what's it called?
confused mate ha been long day at work ha has what got a name
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Odds based on O1.5 being over 1.33 and Home odds to be between 1.5 and 1.8 pre kick off
0_1644941142535_Betfair Trading O1.5.xlsx -
Here are the results from my lay under 1.5 for past 10 days.
3_1644939162061_Lay Under 1.5 03-05 02 2022.xlsx 2_1644939162060_Lay Under 1.5 06-09 02 2022.xlsx 1_1644939162059_Lay under 1.5 10-12 02 2022.xlsx 0_1644939162058_Lay under 1.5 13-14 02 2022.xlsx
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@martin very interested in this thread! I have just started "proper" money trading a month ago (started 15 January) for my 2nd half goals set and forget system. Using data on 650+ games I have worked out a system for 2nd half goals that has thrown up about 400 games that fit my criteria which is purely odds value based. So far after 90 games since 15 January with real money it is 9% ROI (Total profit divided by total stakes).
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Great idea.
I use bfbotmanager so been playing for ages trying to find good set and forget bots to run.
But I keep getting a great start, making a nice return and then a while later after I dream about the new house it will pay for it goes bad and starts hitting loads of losers and profit fades
I try using BTC data along with just trying setting bots to run automatically in bfbot with zero effort once set up.
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I have an FHG set & forget strategy which seems to be working well, but it's quite a bit of messing about, running the filter results through a probability spreadsheet and then only backing on matches between a set odds range. I will open a thread and post the days long list and the prior days' results if anyone is interested.
