Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@terry-heller yeah u3.5 had a bit of a surgence yesterday, maybe as it coming towards end of the season?
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@nick-allan Just an update on the Saturday selections reversing the strategy with yesterdays selections
St Etienne Metz W @ 3.4
Altach Ried L
Winterthur Grasshoppers L
Amiens Valenciennes L
Paris FC Nimes L
Sampdoria Spezia L
Everton U. De Chile LSo -£36 at £10 stakes
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Now I know a lot of people don't tend to post their successful days, so I wanted to post this profit and loss sheet from yesterday showing a very strong day. Still down for the month but it’s been a good recovery. It was a particularly good day for Thomas under 1.5 lays, the last week I have been more selective in taking the set and forgets because of a drawdown that we had in early April and yesterday I only took 2 of his 6 selections, off his 6 selections 5 won. And i think this just shows you how difficult it is sometimes with these set and forget you've just got to realise that it is a variance issue and not a strategy that is failing.
Another of the strategies that I’ve been doing the hasn't had a very successful month is the ELO Lay away team and I only took one of the selections yesterday and all four won. Again, it shows you that variance has to be a key factor that you need to address and accept that over the course of a month/ year you're going to have downturns and you just have to accept those downturns and keep moving forward. This is one of the things that I struggle with as a trader, and I think if I can start to accept losses more, I think I'll start to turn a corner.
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Clean sweep on Martins O1.5 today though I missed out on Chobry and Ausburg as they didnt look like value bets. On the plus side I had a winner outside the odds range with LKS so 2/2 for me and I am happy with that
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I was wondering as the seasons are ending, Martin says he does not trade the last 5 games of a season, as its dead for a lot of teams, makes sense, just wondering is there an option to filter out these teams on the software, ? if not could something like that be possibly put in at some stage just to eliminate such games? certainly would be handy.
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@simon-topper ok good to know I don’t have to spend loads
I'd be incredibly surprised if most laptops with 8MB RAM at around £250 upwards weren't perfectly capable. Unless you're going for a gaming PC/laptop most will be sufficient.
All I would is anything less than 8MB RAM will run slowly in pretty much everything you try to do, not just Betangel.
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@dave-tancock a quick google search found this for you
https://betangel.kayako.com/conversation/new -
@martin tried that and couldn’t find an obvious way to contact them. Also couldn’t see any system requirements on their site
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@simon-topper ok good to know I don’t have to spend loads
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@dave-tancock I am not scalping or anything that uses lots of charts or excel integration. But I use a 3yr old aspire 3 (A4 processor) was my daughters laptop through Covid lockdown. Was about £250 at the time.
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@dave-tancock probably best to ask them?
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Slightly off topic but anyone know what the minimum laptop system requirement is for betangel? I’m considering buying a cheap windows laptop, but it would only be for this and I don’t really want to spend more than I have to.
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@terry-heller the formula I use to calculate edge is (probability of occurrence) - (1/betfair odds) x 100. Eg. if an event has an 80% probability and the betfair odds are $1.58 then you are getting a 16% odds edge (0.8 - 1/$1.58). Eg 2. if an event has an 50% probability and the betfair odds are $2.0 then you are getting a 0% odds edge (0.5 - 1/$2.0) - actually negative by the time you factor in betfair commission........
You could then see if filtering for a certain edge boosts your profitability......
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@fraser-cord Yes basically that but I am looking for a bigger margin than that. I ought to work out a formula to calculate the difference as a percentage but for now if BF price is nearly double I am going with that.
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@terry-heller so in theory, you look at the filter and it says over fulltime over 1.5 goals is 1.32. The current price is 1.42, then you would back O 1.5 as the price is above the stats value?
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@fraser-cord It worked today only Celta Vigo looking likely to spoil things
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Yeh i get you. So frustrating to find an angle that switches exactly when you start to go with it.
I followed the summer football last year with Tomasz U1.5 and noticed so few had over 3 goals. So added a little on that as well as the lay U1.5, that week, there were 4 goals in more games than the previous 3 months combined.
I like your thinking's with comparing price to stats data, could be a way to find value
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I am trying this out but it has been good so far
But then lots of ideas seem good for a while and dont stand the test of time.
