Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@fraser-cord Yes basically that but I am looking for a bigger margin than that. I ought to work out a formula to calculate the difference as a percentage but for now if BF price is nearly double I am going with that.
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@terry-heller so in theory, you look at the filter and it says over fulltime over 1.5 goals is 1.32. The current price is 1.42, then you would back O 1.5 as the price is above the stats value?
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@fraser-cord It worked today only Celta Vigo looking likely to spoil things
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Yeh i get you. So frustrating to find an angle that switches exactly when you start to go with it.
I followed the summer football last year with Tomasz U1.5 and noticed so few had over 3 goals. So added a little on that as well as the lay U1.5, that week, there were 4 goals in more games than the previous 3 months combined.
I like your thinking's with comparing price to stats data, could be a way to find value
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I am trying this out but it has been good so far
But then lots of ideas seem good for a while and dont stand the test of time. -
@fraser-cord On the Stats filter Select:
Overall
Odds
Pick the market eg FTO1.5
The Operator (I use greater or equal 1.04) -
@terry-heller What do you mean by stats price?
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@fraser-cord I am only backing if the starting price is what I consider to be value.
These are ones that came up across different filters Today
Sandjeca Poland D1.....BF Price 1.45.......The stats price....1.11
Cherno More Bulgaria Parva....BF Price 1.61.....stats price...1.33
Zamalek Egypt PL BF Price 1.57....Stats price...1.18
Celta Vigo Spain LaLiga BF Price 1.64 Stats price 1.33
Fiorentina were on the list too BF 1.34...stats 1.18 -
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@dave-tancock same dave, the strategies I follow have sadly been underperforming, and at the moment the profits made in feb and march will be gobbled up, I suppose I can look at it that I haven’t lost money in 2023 but its frustrating. I think even if they are set and forget you need to do your own analysis and even think about tweaking the starts slightly a tom U1.5 selection yesterday in isreal was 2 teams in a relegation spilt league but they wer top of the lewague so mwhat are they playing for? but even in that game ther was a 5 min goal so you expect that would go on and win but yet another loser . For transparency I currently use these strategies:
Tom U1.5
Elo lay awayWith ELO away if you had backed the away team instead of laying in the last 2 months you would be up quite significantly. Something I’m going to do analysis on for a greater level of selections to see if it might be better backing the away team than laying it. Of course that would means long losing runs but when they win it will win big as most odds are between 4.0 and 6
Like the idea of looking at reversing a strategy if not performing , this has been brought up a lot recently.
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Just read your post again @Terry-Heller , are you only backing if the price is what you consider value, or are you placing a trade at better value trying to match inplay? I was meaning I do the latter.
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@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@dave-tancock
I have recently added a criteria to Martins O1.5 backs to only back them when the price available is what I would consider value.
The criteria is to get the overall FT odds of O 1 .5 which I compare to the BF price
So today I had 3 backs and 3 winners....the 4th one on the filter also won but I passed on it because the odds on both were both the same so didnt represent value to me.
I havent done the same yet with Tomasz strategy as it ticks along and only needs a much lower S/R due to the prices. (I back the overs so I keep my liability the same ie 1pt)I'm no expert but that's exactly what I have been doing. I'm still not convinced with O1.5 backs (given the number of early goals and the price often dips below starting priced until 5-10 mins in, so often miss winners), but I do it with U1.5 lays.
Its not common for an early goal in them, so the money you miss on 1 early goal is quickly made up from all the extra winnings/less liability.
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Quiet day all round today so I had a play with the filters again and removed the upper odds limit on Martins O1.5, It came up with Sandjeca Poland D1 with odds of 1.45
The stats software showed me the odds as being 1.11 which made me think it would be a value bet.
Certainly some food for thought with this
3 goals in the first 15 minutes made me glad I stuck a £1 on -
@dave-tancock Also unless you have a huge data set looking at percentages can be very misleading. If you have 50 results the percentage swing for 1 result is going to be 2% so effectively meaningless. You can quickly go from 80% to 70% in a few games at 80% a viable price is 1.26 but at 70% you will need 1.44
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@dave-tancock
I have recently added a criteria to Martins O1.5 backs to only back them when the price available is what I would consider value.
The criteria is to get the overall FT odds of O 1 .5 which I compare to the BF price
So today I had 3 backs and 3 winners....the 4th one on the filter also won but I passed on it because the odds on both were both the same so didnt represent value to me.
I havent done the same yet with Tomasz strategy as it ticks along and only needs a much lower S/R due to the prices. (I back the overs so I keep my liability the same ie 1pt) -
for the first time I am looking at the data for strategies to see if there are any trends, although don't have loads of results as yet. do people tend to use odds restrictions first as I imagine it can take a lot longer to get a decent sample size for leagues. ie you could have 50 results but some leagues may only have 5 or less results which seems a little early to restrict them. or am I over thinking this?
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@marinko-jelic Martin’s Back Over 1.5 Goals - Let the bet run
Rules: Back Over 1.5 Goals at odds between 1.25-1.35. But only trade if you fell that its the right decision. -
@terry-heller yeah its a possibility and your liability wouldn’t be too bad as you don’t trade if the HT is above 2.2, i might look at both perspectives, at the moment im testing a lot and to be honest i only see 1 start that could go live into minimal stakes and you don’t do it now when leagues come to an end of the season
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@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@terry-heller fab results terry and just shows you that teams maybe do perform better on a saturday, i say the same thing with fav in hofrse racing on saturdays as well. Do you think you have enough selections to take it live? or are you trading this live at the moment?
I am just watching and recording the results. The probable long losing runs would be a test of my nerves!
yes indeed and just because a strat does well in testing doesnt mean its going to be good live, ive found that out lately where strats have performed so well in testing and when you go live bang the SR comes down
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@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@dave-tancock same dave, the strategies I follow have sadly been underperforming, and at the moment the profits made in feb and march will be gobbled up, I suppose I can look at it that I haven’t lost money in 2023 but its frustrating. I think even if they are set and forget you need to do your own analysis and even think about tweaking the starts slightly a tom U1.5 selection yesterday in isreal was 2 teams in a relegation spilt league but they wer top of the lewague so mwhat are they playing for? but even in that game ther was a 5 min goal so you expect that would go on and win but yet another loser . For transparency I currently use these strategies:
Tom U1.5
Elo lay awayWith ELO away if you had backed the away team instead of laying in the last 2 months you would be up quite significantly. Something I’m going to do analysis on for a greater level of selections to see if it might be better backing the away team than laying it. Of course that would means long losing runs but when they win it will win big as most odds are between 4.0 and 6
ELO lay away I am just watching. Have you thought about laying the home team? That way you have 2 results on your side ie the draw and an away win. Of course that will be reflected in the possible return.
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@nick-allan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@terry-heller fab results terry and just shows you that teams maybe do perform better on a saturday, i say the same thing with fav in hofrse racing on saturdays as well. Do you think you have enough selections to take it live? or are you trading this live at the moment?
I am just watching and recording the results. The probable long losing runs would be a test of my nerves!
