Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@terry-heller whats the ave odds of the winners?
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@terry-heller the over will be quite high odds as well and the under are on ave 1.3 so the SR doesn’t have to be high, but yeah need to be disciplined with potential downturns
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@fraser-cord 3 of the 5 losers from those had 3 goals so werent far away.
Overall with a S/R of around 32% it is highly likely to have very long losing streaks. Checking back over all of the results to date 10 is quite common. -
@terry-heller said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@nick-allan Just an update on the Saturday selections reversing the strategy with yesterdays selections
St Etienne Metz W @ 3.4
Altach Ried L
Winterthur Grasshoppers L
Amiens Valenciennes L
Paris FC Nimes L
Sampdoria Spezia L
Everton U. De Chile LSo -£36 at £10 stakes
Ive been keeping an eye on this all month especially this week and in general U3.5 has been hitting lots. Unfortunately i was on many of them yesterday for overs, typical as paper trading for the month had saturday well in profit even with this.
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@terry-heller yeah u3.5 had a bit of a surgence yesterday, maybe as it coming towards end of the season?
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@nick-allan Just an update on the Saturday selections reversing the strategy with yesterdays selections
St Etienne Metz W @ 3.4
Altach Ried L
Winterthur Grasshoppers L
Amiens Valenciennes L
Paris FC Nimes L
Sampdoria Spezia L
Everton U. De Chile LSo -£36 at £10 stakes
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Now I know a lot of people don't tend to post their successful days, so I wanted to post this profit and loss sheet from yesterday showing a very strong day. Still down for the month but it’s been a good recovery. It was a particularly good day for Thomas under 1.5 lays, the last week I have been more selective in taking the set and forgets because of a drawdown that we had in early April and yesterday I only took 2 of his 6 selections, off his 6 selections 5 won. And i think this just shows you how difficult it is sometimes with these set and forget you've just got to realise that it is a variance issue and not a strategy that is failing.
Another of the strategies that I’ve been doing the hasn't had a very successful month is the ELO Lay away team and I only took one of the selections yesterday and all four won. Again, it shows you that variance has to be a key factor that you need to address and accept that over the course of a month/ year you're going to have downturns and you just have to accept those downturns and keep moving forward. This is one of the things that I struggle with as a trader, and I think if I can start to accept losses more, I think I'll start to turn a corner.
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Clean sweep on Martins O1.5 today though I missed out on Chobry and Ausburg as they didnt look like value bets. On the plus side I had a winner outside the odds range with LKS so 2/2 for me and I am happy with that
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I was wondering as the seasons are ending, Martin says he does not trade the last 5 games of a season, as its dead for a lot of teams, makes sense, just wondering is there an option to filter out these teams on the software, ? if not could something like that be possibly put in at some stage just to eliminate such games? certainly would be handy.
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@simon-topper ok good to know I don’t have to spend loads
I'd be incredibly surprised if most laptops with 8MB RAM at around £250 upwards weren't perfectly capable. Unless you're going for a gaming PC/laptop most will be sufficient.
All I would is anything less than 8MB RAM will run slowly in pretty much everything you try to do, not just Betangel.
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@dave-tancock a quick google search found this for you
https://betangel.kayako.com/conversation/new -
@martin tried that and couldn’t find an obvious way to contact them. Also couldn’t see any system requirements on their site
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@simon-topper ok good to know I don’t have to spend loads
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@dave-tancock I am not scalping or anything that uses lots of charts or excel integration. But I use a 3yr old aspire 3 (A4 processor) was my daughters laptop through Covid lockdown. Was about £250 at the time.
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@dave-tancock probably best to ask them?
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Slightly off topic but anyone know what the minimum laptop system requirement is for betangel? I’m considering buying a cheap windows laptop, but it would only be for this and I don’t really want to spend more than I have to.
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@terry-heller the formula I use to calculate edge is (probability of occurrence) - (1/betfair odds) x 100. Eg. if an event has an 80% probability and the betfair odds are $1.58 then you are getting a 16% odds edge (0.8 - 1/$1.58). Eg 2. if an event has an 50% probability and the betfair odds are $2.0 then you are getting a 0% odds edge (0.5 - 1/$2.0) - actually negative by the time you factor in betfair commission........
You could then see if filtering for a certain edge boosts your profitability......
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@fraser-cord Yes basically that but I am looking for a bigger margin than that. I ought to work out a formula to calculate the difference as a percentage but for now if BF price is nearly double I am going with that.
