Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Alastair-Todd I think people prefer strategies with higher strike rates as there will be less losses so mentally they find it a bit easier but the downside is that it often is backing odds on, so the odds vs strike rate becomes the most important thing ultimately.
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@Martin Every day's a school day!
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@Alastair-Todd said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Liam-Mcnee Hi Liam, as a relative novice here (me not you!), can I ask whether a strike rate of 36% can actually be profitable? I get concerned if mine drops below 80% for my over 1.5 back strategy. I can't see how a strategy that loses two thirds of the time can actually make you any money.
looked at a strategy yesterday that hits 16% of the time and makes a good profit, it's all average odds based whether you profit or not. Strike rate in a lot of ways is irrelevant without average odds to compare it to.
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@Alastair-Todd Hi Alastair. The odds for over 3.5 tend to be high. I only pick selections if the odds are over 2.7 meaning you don't need a really high SR to be profitable. For example, last month only 22 out of my 61 selections won but I was still 13 points up.
Over 1.5 goals is a different beast where the odds are usually low meaning you need to have a high SR because your liability is higher. Hope that makes sense.
Btw I'm still a novice here too mate
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@Liam-Mcnee Hi Liam, as a relative novice here (me not you!), can I ask whether a strike rate of 36% can actually be profitable? I get concerned if mine drops below 80% for my over 1.5 back strategy. I can't see how a strategy that loses two thirds of the time can actually make you any money.
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@Stuart-Capstick Yeah Good point.
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Certain leagues were scoring way above average during that period (e.g. Bundesliga).
Of course, some of those leagues are now on a winter break, leaving some of the more "unreliable, but interesting" leagues to fill out the football menu from the back end of December.
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@Liam-Mcnee difficult thing is you don't have Jan last year to see the comparison, my Over 3.5 Lays took a dive past couple of months.
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@Martin It has been on my mind. Funny enough December was the most profitable month for the strategy with a SR of 36% despite the poor end. January feels like a write off at this rate but don't know whether to hold fire and give it time.
I've been testing since April last year and went live in September. Not experienced such a downturn like this before.
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@Liam-Mcnee that's a heck of a losing streak! is a reverse strategy in order?
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Hi everyone. Does anybody have any data to suggest whether less goals are scored during the winter months? My over 3.5 goals strategy currently has a 25 losing streak.
Could just be variance but it would make sense for teams to take longer getting into the game meaning less goals. Thanks.
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As am i
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@Richard-Latimer looking forward to seeing your findings
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Have had to do a couple more tweaks but this is the way it goes and it's what's working for my overs system:
It should be noted that not all tweaks have been removing stuff. Some things have been put back in. Ave points 2.6 was an early exclusion but it seems I jumped the gun and these may be good.
I'll keep tracking and when I've got a good 300-400 selections I'll post my findings. If I can either surpass the number of selections on my overs (without relinquishing quality) or get to 1,000 (whichever happens first) I'll start trading them - or at least the ones where I have amassed enough data
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Have had to do a couple more tweaks but this is the way it goes and it's what's working for my overs system:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Arran-Shackell said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Very interesting - could you state the filter criteria please? Sorry if I have missed it!
The easy bit is omitting average points scored 2.1 & 2.5/2.6 (people may think this is rather specific but if you look at it it's just a combination of how many wins, losses, draws can be accrued to reach 2pts ave.
A combination of h/a ave points between 4.5-4.9 have also seemed to be bad performers.
The rest is a little too early to say at the moment but it's a case of when the wins/losses/draws occurred on each side and there are definite patterns so far.
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Very interesting - could you state the filter criteria please? Sorry if I have missed it!
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Finished the month like this:
