Set & Forget Football Strategies
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This thread is for members of the community to work together to build some profitable set and forget football strategies.
THESES ARE NOT TIPS! This is a community project as above.
If following make sure to stick to the rules of the strategy and read this: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/new-martins-revised-7-key-rules-trading-football
How to Download & Upload a Strategy:
Results Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qisAtUpuQ0VqddUJ5VypUKHj4J02wHJI4ENtPR1gPNA/edit#gid=27565906
Downloads!
Feel free to test these strategies below, as above they are not tips.
Lay Away 2.0 - Lay Away 2.0.txt
Lay Away 3.0 - filter-settings (3).txt
Lay Home 2.0 - Lay Home 2.0.txt
Back Home 1.0 - Back Home 1.0.txt
Back Home 1.8-2.28 odds - filter-settings (1).txt(Lay Away 1.0, Tomasz Lay Under 1.5 and Lay Over 3.5 Goals are already in your software presets)
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@Terry-Cooke yes they work better as Back Unders since Covid got back to normal, not many selections per year which is a problem for it
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@Martin Are you not tracking the results for Tomasz Under 1.5 Goals Lays anymore?
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@Joseph-Henderson yes end of season as expected has caused a bad month best avoided other than summer leagues now
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@Joseph-Henderson Try taking out the games where one or other (or both) teams have nothing to play for and see if that alters the results much.
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How are people getting on with the Lay Away 3.0 filter? Think I may have just started it at a bad time, but I am 17.6pts down for April & May so far (7.2pts in April and 10.4pts in May).
The max drawdown I have recorded is 22.32% - maybe this is just variance or perhaps end of season impact?
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@Richard-Latimer hope the prints stuff picks up mate.
Seems like your trading is progressing well
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@Richard-Latimer I thought this was a retirement post at first! This strategy sounds very promising.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Richard-Latimer said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
0.5 for the away started very badly with 3 successive losses while the next 3 won. It may well right itself but after Saturdays surprise capitulation by Plzen when the away team were 0.4 there is also every possibly chance that 0.5 and under is ruled out. At present 0.4 is the lowest loss but the sheer size of that loss also means nothing under 0.6 is actually profitable anymore as things stand.
And no sooner than I say that but April starts with a 1-4 pounding in Columbia against a side with just 0.4 ave points. I am going to try and avoid a single change and look at this again for May to see if it justifies removing the low numbers which my feeling at the moment is gravitating towards.
After spending well over a year running in the wrong direction and telling myself that everytime I hit an obstacle all I needed to do was move it of the way I've been able to spot things before they go too far. Rather than carry on until I came to a cliff edge with with a broken rope bridge, a 1000ft drop and the promise of a hungry tiger to greet me should I make it to the other side I turned back early this time.
Although the filters had been less, they didn't alltogether make sense (thanks @Martin) and I could see that the data didn't appear to have legs. So...
Luckily enough I had started to track a similar thing for laying home (I'm working on other stuff as well for a small portfolio but this has a loooooong way to go).
I've just hit 200 selections, I have an 86% s/r, ave lay odds of 4.6 it's 100pts profit. To level stakes of £10 that's obviously £1,000.
I've been tracking since the back end of Feb and I'm almost at the stage where I don't expect to make any/certainly many more changes. I'm happy with my filters, they make sense to me, they are limited to either 1 criteria or a combination of 2 max.
There is no random exclusion of 1.9 points of 2.2 or something similar. Only at the top and the bottom end of the scale. Find the sweet spot!!
Another 100 selections and I'll share my findings.