Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@Martin Surely long term even matts under 2.5 set and forget won't work because I calculated the win rate using the spreadsheet and it only had a 55% win rate and the average odds are 1.96 (below evens) over the 1087 selections?
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Hi guys,
So off the back of Martin’s latest update (which I’m saving for a cold beer in the garden later)…
I’ve continued with the Unders Set & Forget that was doing so well, based on a bank of £110.00, and each bet of 1%. Appreciate that there’s always a risk it can go wrong, but for the sake of £110, I made the decision that “why not” – though would always stress the using money you can afford to lose bit!
I’ve attached my spreadsheet of results for everyone to have a look at – whereas Martin has removed some of the Leagues, I’ve kept all of them save for Australian Leagues (hence the 1113 games that were bet on!) . I had to make one adjustment of +21p, which I’ll take a margin of error…that and I’m not trawling through 1000 games!
I’ve done a ‘deep dive’ on some of the worst performing countries/leagues, and considered the Overs market on these. For the odds, I’ve used the average odds from Oddsportal.com – given that Betfair Exchange usually has better odds than most bookies, I’m fairly confident in the Overs returns! I would consider doing the ‘deep dive’ on the others, maybe when I’ve actually got a free weekend…
Overall I’ve had a 55 point return this month, or for those that like a percentage, a 50% Bank increase. Not bad at all considering it’s just set and forget, though as you can see there have been a LOT of games on. Fortunately, it’s taken me roughly 30mins-1hr each evening while the TV is on in the background so hardly strenuous work.
Happy for any feedback/input/angles I may have missed on these!
0_1648047683872_Set & Forget Results.xlsx
France (National League Only)
Average U2.5 Odds – 1.65
Average O2.5 Odds – 2.24Total U2.5 return was -£7.49, whereas in comparison the O2.5 return was £8.17. This would have resulted in an extra £15.66 (just under 16 points) on top of my total return for the month.
This was only over a total of 22 games though so need to consider variance. That being said, for the next month I’ll switch to the O2.5 market and see what the total return is.
Netherlands (All Leagues)
Eredivisie Eerste Divisie All LeaguesAverage U2.5 Odds 2.06 2.32 2.24
Average O2.5 Odds 1.67 1.63 1.64The Eredivisie was -£1.09 down over 10 games, and the Eerste Divisie was -£5.87 down over 22 games. However, the average odds was lower for the O2.5 market, suggesting that the market believes that there were likely to be 2+ goals in most games.
Looking at the O2.5 market, the Eredivisie would have ended -£1.83 across the same number of games, and the Eerste Divisie would have ended £2.45 in the green.
Turkey (Super Lig)
Average U2.5 Odds – 1.96
Average O2.5 Odds – 1.96Surprisingly the average odds are exactly even to 2 D.P. in this league.
With a Win rate of just 29% (6W, 15L), the overall return this month is -£10.00.
Had I gone with the O2.5 results, I’d be looking at a positive return of £9.06 (so £19.06 on top of my monthly return).
Will be running the O2.5 market next month and seeing the difference.
England (All Leagues)
I’d started including the lower leagues (down to Isthmian PD), albeit only for 3 games.
Overall return is -£5.67 for the Unders market, and -£2.09 for the Overs market. Strike rate is sitting near enough at exactly 50% (69W, 68L).
Not nearly as happy with these Leagues as I’d thought, though welcome anyone’s input on potential angles etc. on the basis that I’ve missed something!
Kuwait (Premier League Only)
Appreciate that this is a very ‘small’ league in comparison, and liquidity isn’t great, but as I was using stakes of £1.00 / £1.10, I feel like I can at least give some input.
Average U2.5 Odds – 1.87
Average O2.5 Odds – 2.01Strike rate was 25%, though this was only on 8 games, so not willing to hang my hat on it. That being said, the returns are near enough a complete 180! Unders gave me a return this month of -£4.55, whereas the Overs resulted in £4.15.
Obviously more data needed for this League…
Spain (All Leagues)
The most interesting one this.
Total of 118 games across all leagues, with a strike rate of 54% win on the Unders (64W, 54L).
Average U2.5 Odds – 1.67
Average O2.5 Odds – 2.29The Unders returned a total of -£13.69, whereas the Overs would have returned a total of £6.59 (so I’d have had £20.28 – a smidge over 20 points on these Leagues alone). Obviously the vast difference in average odds plays in the favour of a lesser strike rate needed.
Interestingly, had I layed the Unders for the same amount (being under the 2.0 odds mark), I’d have ended with £8.42, so potentially another angle to consider.
I think I’ll run the lay Unders next month, and have the max liability as 1% - will then give me a higher return on the Wins.
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@Martin nice weekly update
Is there a thread relating to the Ratings based strategies or have I missed it?
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I knew that changing that under 1.5 for laying under will bring a better results mate. them odds are brilliant.
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@matt-wood said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@martin Thanks for another update Martin. I am sure I can speak for everyone when I say how much all your time and effort on this project is appreciated. I know for myself I have my unders (plus a couple of other things testing) and the weekends get quite tiring tracking all the data.
Keep up the good work
How very kind, thank you
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@paul-benstead-0 said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@ian-wylie Thanks Ian. Since you have an odds filter, is the time of running the filters important?
Hi Paul, I normally run the filter in the morning to pick up any games that day. There's been 2 or 3 times when I've had to do it the night before if I'm away with work.
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@martin Thanks for another update Martin. I am sure I can speak for everyone when I say how much all your time and effort on this project is appreciated. I know for myself I have my unders (plus a couple of other things testing) and the weekends get quite tiring tracking all the data.
Keep up the good work
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@ian-wylie Thanks Ian. Since you have an odds filter, is the time of running the filters important?
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@ian-wylie This seems to be in line with some other data I've seen. Anything 85%+ on SHG seems about right, but anything less than 80% seems to struggle once you take into account commission. Interesting to see the difference if there's no FHG.
I've also seen Sweden around the 75% mark which makes you wonder if it's worth pursuing over the summer if Norway and Finland are so much higher?
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Hi all,
This is a filter which I have been running for quite a while, in fact it's been on the go for so long with various tweaks that I can't remember when / how it started. In all likelihood I probably got the idea from one of @Martin or @Ryan podcasts or videos. It is a really basic, simple filter as you will see (no great thought process was used in the building of this) and has been running with it's current settings since August 2021. Previous to that I had experimented with changing the scope between 5 & 10 games, the O2.5 percentage and the odds before settling on the current settings. I haven't restricted too many leagues (if any) and so far it's had a total of 413 games selected.
The filter settings are:
/home/ian/Downloads/Screenshot from 2022-03-21 11-48-42.pngThe results going back to last August are:
/home/ian/Downloads/Screenshot from 2022-03-21 12-02-49.pngThe O1.5 results have dipped recently with a really bad week in January followed by the weekend just past and is at 84% currently. I like to record a lot of data on my sheets in case something else stands out and in this case you can see that there is a bit of a difference in the SHG % when a goal has been scored in the first half (87.01%) compared to 81.90% if it's 0-0 at half time. Also, only 50% of games which are 0-0 at half time end up O1.5.
I was trading this as a set & forget Lay U1.5 goals but I would tend to take the loss at HT if it was 0-0 and then back a SHG to make a scratch trade. The reasoning being that 0-0 at HT gives a 50% chance of a wining trade and a 81.90% chance of a scratch trade with 1 SHG if that makes sense.
I was considering using it for LTD trades as until recently less than 20% of games ended up as a draw but that has increased as well recently to 21.55%.
I've also looked at the country's with over 20 selections on the filter just out of interest (Can't wait till Finland & Norway start again):
/home/ian/Downloads/Screenshot from 2022-03-21 12-15-36.pngAnyway I hope this is use to some and maybe someone will come up with a better idea for trading it. I've got a few more O1.5 filters on the go which are looking promising but just don't have enough selections yet to start trading them.
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Sorry guys and gals - I've kept up to date as much as possible, but can't see the ELO "rules"! For the Away value, was it simply just ELO away is greater than ELO home, but they're the Dog in Betfair?
And it's just backing the away team / laying the home team?
Cheers all!
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@tomasz-lunarzewski said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@richard-latimer said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@tomasz-lunarzewski do it manually. Look on oddsportal.com as I suggested to Matt
Yes mate that is what I do, but that filter probably needs a little improvement because it would be very handy in a long run if it shows everything right.
I guess. I like the average book price to go on though rather than Betfair prices. Think it gives a better overall idea.
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@richard-latimer said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@tomasz-lunarzewski do it manually. Look on oddsportal.com as I suggested to Matt
Yes mate that is what I do, but that filter probably needs a little improvement because it would be very handy in a long run if it shows everything right.
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@tomasz-lunarzewski do it manually. Look on oddsportal.com as I suggested to Matt
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
When I try to apply the odds filter it cuts too many games, even them that actually have the odds I want, so I just do it manually on the go. Has anyone got the same issue with that filter?
