Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Thought I’d share an update on how the lay away strategy is working for me now that I’m 4 weeks in.
Total trades - 140
Total winning trades - 104
SR - 74%
P/L - + £10 (using £10 stakes)Summary, it might sound like poor profit but considering this includes a terrible weekend a few weeks back, quite happy with the bounce back.
I have been looking at whether restricting selections to have a home pts total of 2.25 or better improves things and across this albeit small sample size it does look promising:
Total trades (2.25 home pts or better) - 81
Total winning trades - 63
SR - 77%
P/L - +£135Having said the above in recent weeks I have seen a lot of promising trades that would get left behind if filtering out those that at lower than 2.25. So now currently operating using the below parameters.
2-2.24 = Will do extra due diligence prior to placing the trade. If any red flags appear in recent form of home or away team and/or if league position of away team is significantly higher than home team, will not trade.
2.25+ = Will do some due diligence but will generally trade providing within odds range.
The above approach seems to be working nicely so far. Interested to hear feedback on anyone who has been running this for a lot longer than me.
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@Martin I know that this is a set and forget thread and Lay Away is a set and forget strategy but after making a good profit over the weekend using it and to be honest sweating most of the bets. LOL. I know stupid right? I was wondering if anyone has looked at cashing out when the away team scores first and whether it would increase the profit. I was also thinking about the time that the away team scored the first goal as if they score in the first half the cash out price is much better than a later 2nd half goal. I was thinking of taking the teams from the lay away strategy and following the results with the above criteria myself unless someone has already looked at that or there is away to incorperate it into a strategy in the software.
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Lay the away had a good weekend just gone. Everyone else get the same? Still tracking 2.25 as the home point parameter and that was £60 up to £10 stakes over the weekend.
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@Andy-Donnelly interesting. I though over 3.5 and under 1.5 goals had minimum number of games for current season filter which was why they have no selections at present
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@Paul-Donnelly If you are worried about lack of selections in a filter, suggest you make a clone of your chosen strategy and remove the following if they are in the filter settings:
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odds - odds sometimes won’t be available on betfair until much closer to match time
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shot stats - as mentioned by Adam recently there are some leagues where this info isn’t available currently so will mean selections don’t show
I’ve noticed recently that all my strategies that use shot stats have had very few selections recently. Particularly impacting the Brazilian leagues.
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@Paul-Donnelly it's deep in development hopefully get a beta ready fairly soon, no dates set yet though
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@Ryan said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Paul-Donnelly what I like to do on the software as well is type the date in the bar where it says 'Fixture search' as that will show you all the games there are today, it's good to just double check that then you know what leagues actually have games today and can explain sometimes when theres no games meeting the criteria on my filters.
Hi Ryan, interesting thought. I took your advice and there are quite a lot of games tomorrow. But still no upcoming matches on the strategy. Should there be an Apply button, or Run button somewhere? I just cannot figure how to pick a strategy and make it "go"
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@Martin said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
@Paul-Donnelly have a crack at creating your own one you should get some pop up then tomorrow
Will deffo be looking at trying some of my own in the future but for now wanted to toy with the presets, especially the ones that have the historical data. I guess back testing will remove an element of risk - is that due soon?
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@Paul-Donnelly what I like to do on the software as well is type the date in the bar where it says 'Fixture search' as that will show you all the games there are today, it's good to just double check that then you know what leagues actually have games today and can explain sometimes when theres no games meeting the criteria on my filters.
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@Paul-Donnelly have a crack at creating your own one you should get some pop up then tomorrow
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@Martin ah fair enough. It was just because I went through over 10 strategies and with zero qualifiers I wasn't sure if I had done something wrong.
I can see a lot of them say current season and 10 games etc, so I realise there won't be many European matches for a month or two.
Will keep an eye and get back to you if I have a few more days of zero results.
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@Paul-Donnelly not much league football on this midweek most of it was cup think there was 5 Brazilian serie B games. So assumedly just nothing qualified. If there is nothing in by Friday lunchtime let me know.
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Hey Martin.
I've just started to look at the various football strategies and been into the Football Stats section. I cycle through all of the presets and get 0 results. I cannot fathom why as there are plenty of leagues in mid season such as Brazil. I cannot see an "Apply" button so maybe that is missing for me?
How do I get to see the qualifiers please?
PS I am happy to provide a Loom video to show what I am seeing ...
Many thanks,
Paul -
HI all, does anyone have the original lay the away side at ko filter please? I added the new version but deleted the old one.
I have calculated that last month i lost 16 points and was wanting to track this system by reversing the strategy to backing the away side -
@dave-tancock problem is didn't trade that last year so hard to know
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@dave-tancock depends how many games they have left, just checked and July was good for me last year so possibly just bad variance