Set & Forget Football Strategies
-
Guys, for the lay away filter can someone remind me the logic of having the odds restriction on home team?
Just trying to work out why it’s needed as long as you have the odds restriction on the away because that’s what we’re actually laying.
I don’t want to change anything as it’s working nicely but just wanted to confirm for my own sanity really
-
@David-Baker I bet that ups with the 2pts rather than 2.3 I'm going to split test
-
@Martin Blimey!....when you put it like that it looks good.Only a short period though and in that period it was only 27 trades with 4 losing trades.
-
I also find odds play a part in my decision making with whether away team is higher in the league than home team.
If most other form lines are in home teams favour and odds are say 3.0 then I’m still likely to trade the selection even if away team higher in the league. When it starts going to 4.0 and above I’ll definitely leave it.
-
@Martin with the league position I like to see a clear gap between the teams….ideally 4/5 positions min depending on the size of the league.If the teams are next to each other I tend not to trade as I feel they are both evenly matched and tend too cancel each other out.
-
@Martin I can only really speak about this one Martin as this is only set and forget strategy I look at each match.I suppose it’s a more of a “trading” approach than a true set and forget.
I have used the league position criteria to my ltd trading and although I haven’t got any concrete records it makes me more confident in a trade. -
@Andy-Donnelly Hi Andy I have been doing something similar with the lay away.My filter is set to 2.3 average points and am looking at each match (ie non favourite,min/max odds and league position). It’s been going well so far and am in profit by 14 pts since the middle of July.
-
@joshua-armstrong what leagues have hit you this month? testing will give you the best answer to be honest, hard for me to say blind if it will work or not.
-
@Martin ya good until I hit this month so was wondering if I should make it longer
-
@joshua-armstrong how has it been working so far?
-
-
Thought I’d share an update on how the lay away strategy is working for me now that I’m 4 weeks in.
Total trades - 140
Total winning trades - 104
SR - 74%
P/L - + £10 (using £10 stakes)Summary, it might sound like poor profit but considering this includes a terrible weekend a few weeks back, quite happy with the bounce back.
I have been looking at whether restricting selections to have a home pts total of 2.25 or better improves things and across this albeit small sample size it does look promising:
Total trades (2.25 home pts or better) - 81
Total winning trades - 63
SR - 77%
P/L - +£135Having said the above in recent weeks I have seen a lot of promising trades that would get left behind if filtering out those that at lower than 2.25. So now currently operating using the below parameters.
2-2.24 = Will do extra due diligence prior to placing the trade. If any red flags appear in recent form of home or away team and/or if league position of away team is significantly higher than home team, will not trade.
2.25+ = Will do some due diligence but will generally trade providing within odds range.
The above approach seems to be working nicely so far. Interested to hear feedback on anyone who has been running this for a lot longer than me.
-
@Martin I know that this is a set and forget thread and Lay Away is a set and forget strategy but after making a good profit over the weekend using it and to be honest sweating most of the bets. LOL. I know stupid right? I was wondering if anyone has looked at cashing out when the away team scores first and whether it would increase the profit. I was also thinking about the time that the away team scored the first goal as if they score in the first half the cash out price is much better than a later 2nd half goal. I was thinking of taking the teams from the lay away strategy and following the results with the above criteria myself unless someone has already looked at that or there is away to incorperate it into a strategy in the software.
-
-
-
Lay the away had a good weekend just gone. Everyone else get the same? Still tracking 2.25 as the home point parameter and that was £60 up to £10 stakes over the weekend.
