Set & Forget Football Strategies
-
@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@alastair-todd that's a good margin, what profit would it be to £10 stake per lay?
I'm not sure I am able to give you a sensible answer on this Martin as I have been 'adjusting' the staking as I go along. Initially I started off staking to win 1 point but that became unpalatable as it meant losing about 3 points if the trade went bad. Since then I have been using a liability of no more than 1.2 points which brings in about 0.35 points profit on average per trade. I suppose I am loosely using a Maria style staking plan to limit the liability but I probably won't enter the trade if the result is going to be less than 0.3 points for the win as the risk/reward ratio starts to work against me. Sorry, this is probably not what you asked, but that's what I've got! Obviously, any advice would be gratefully received.
-
@alastair-todd that's a good margin, what profit would it be to £10 stake per lay?
-
@richard-pennick for this it is really easy to test as you go along, all you need is the selections and the prematch price we are looking to add backtesting to the software in the next update and that will make it much easier to test.
-
@martin-walker I like that as a cut off, there is one today at 1.18 but that's just too short for me even in testing
-
@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@sean-fitzgerald nice one how many games?
104 games now since August. Profit +2.23 pts.
Profit line would like a lot better if I’d slept through December. Lost -2.32 pts in December. Sept was -0.13 pts but all other months have been steady.
-
Hi guys, probably my first proper post. When you are testing strategies do you use a simulator?, if so what. Or do you buy some historical data or just use your own match records as you go along.
Thanks
-
@alastair-todd This sounds very similar to mine. I've been changing my criteria for recording data but the longest streak is 205 games with 80.5% SR
-
@Martin Keen to get involved in the collaboration, it's a great initiative but not sure how much I have to offer. I have a simple 1.5 goals strategy which has a strike rate of 81%, although over only 400 games so far, with average lay odds of 3.85. Having said that, since Boxing Day I have taken slightly higher lay odds to increase the strike rate and have been averaging lay odds of 4.5 with slightly lower stakes. Not sure what I can add but happy to be involved.
-
@sean-fitzgerald nice one how many games?
-
There was a good LTD set and forget that
@Stuart-Capstick had going for a while. I set my own filter based off it which has been profitable for me but Stuart may have better data perhaps. -
@martin Always seems to be when my confidence grows and I think about increasing the % of the bank. Isnt that always the way though.
Tend to always start with a 100 bank and then do 0.25% stakes with compounding profit. Some start of fantastic and show great profit after quite a few bets, but then it just goes south for some reason. No idea why, but sure I will hit something good soon that will have long term profit on it..... well I hope I do
-
@martin Hi Martin, can I make a suggestion regarding this. There appears to be a lot of people interested in contributing and a lot of ideas being put forward but I think that there will need to be some structure to it to get the best out of it as with everyone throwing ideas, filters and results into the mix then we could just get lost in all the data flying about.
Would it be worthwhile creating smaller groups where each group is looking at a different market or angle? So for example have a group looking at O1.5, another one at O2.5, another one doing LTD, U2.5 etc?
These groups could share ideas, develop filters and track results and provide feedback to to the community where the filters, trading angles could be fine tuned further.
Just a thought anyway.
-
@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@lee-woodman, @dan-mackinnon, @matt-wood, @dan-peacey and @Wayne-Ironside feel free to get involved here with your current strategies we have spoken about if you so wish
Interested in sharing, Just need to do some work on them before I share. I certainly like this idea @Martin.
-
@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@james-rome looks good mate what's it called?
confused mate ha been long day at work ha has what got a name