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Set & Forget Football Strategies

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
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1.7k Posts 143 Posters 220.6k Views
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan Peacey
    wrote on last edited by
    #1681

    Ive noticed with the South American matches the Lay Odds are quite juicy like 3.0 and under, that means less liability as I stick to a staking plan depending on the odds of the match. Also at the start of the day I decided to stick to 2 stakes to use for the day and that it really.

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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan Peacey
    wrote on last edited by
    #1682

    My next LTD trade is a Colombian match Dep. Pasto v Dep Cali which kicks off at 23:10

    D 1 Reply Last reply
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan Peacey
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #1683

    @gary-brown I trade from KO

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #1684

    @martin

    I am having success with O1.5 goals. Taking liability out in first half but also switching SH to a o.5 goal trade if 0-0. So only a 0-0 lose.

    Problem is i have two filters. And my selections have to be on both filters to be selected.

    One filter has a 5 game scope
    The other filter is a 10 game scope
    both slightly different.

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Dan Peacey on last edited by
    #1685

    @dan-peacey
    With LTD Dan the way you trade it usually makes a big difference.

    What is your strategy? Is it HT ltd or a LTD at KO strategy?

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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan Peacey
    wrote on last edited by
    #1686

    Sorry for not contributing sooner guys, I tested positive for Covid on Monday and am self isolating currently. I have several filters for LTD which im testing. All filters are giving profits and a strike rate of 75%+. What I do is see which of my filters is the most profitable on a given day and then pick the matches on that filter. For me currently 2 filters are quite close together so I flip flop between them. After a very good month in January securing around 20% profit, I am now -2.5% down this month. More often than not some matches appear on more than 1 of my filters which is good.

    ? MartinM 2 Replies Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #1687

    @mathew-gates said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:

    @richard-pennick I get an idea and then use bfbotmanager. Set it up and use tiny stakes and just forget about it for ages, say a few weeks or so and then look at the results and tweak if neccessary

    my goal is once we get a few fully tested to add them to the members filters in a set and forget separate drop down menu and then get some bots worked out!

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #1688

    @richard-pennick I get an idea and then use bfbotmanager. Set it up and use tiny stakes and just forget about it for ages, say a few weeks or so and then look at the results and tweak if neccessary

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #1689

    @martin never a set number before it goes the shape of a pear but I always try and test a min of 100 before I even take any notice of results

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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Martin Walker
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #1690

    @martin i agree

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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Alastair Todd
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #1691

    @martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:

    @alastair-todd that's a good margin, what profit would it be to £10 stake per lay?

    I'm not sure I am able to give you a sensible answer on this Martin as I have been 'adjusting' the staking as I go along. Initially I started off staking to win 1 point but that became unpalatable as it meant losing about 3 points if the trade went bad. Since then I have been using a liability of no more than 1.2 points which brings in about 0.35 points profit on average per trade. I suppose I am loosely using a Maria style staking plan to limit the liability but I probably won't enter the trade if the result is going to be less than 0.3 points for the win as the risk/reward ratio starts to work against me. Sorry, this is probably not what you asked, but that's what I've got! Obviously, any advice would be gratefully received.

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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Alastair Todd on last edited by
    #1692

    @alastair-todd that's a good margin, what profit would it be to £10 stake per lay?

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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #1693

    @richard-pennick for this it is really easy to test as you go along, all you need is the selections and the prematch price 🙂 we are looking to add backtesting to the software in the next update and that will make it much easier to test.

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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to Martin Walker on last edited by
    #1694

    @martin-walker I like that as a cut off, there is one today at 1.18 but that's just too short for me even in testing

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  • S Offline
    S Offline
    Sean Fitzgerald
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #1695

    @martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:

    @sean-fitzgerald nice one how many games?

    104 games now since August. Profit +2.23 pts.

    Profit line would like a lot better if I’d slept through December. Lost -2.32 pts in December. Sept was -0.13 pts but all other months have been steady.

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #1696

    Hi guys, probably my first proper post. When you are testing strategies do you use a simulator?, if so what. Or do you buy some historical data or just use your own match records as you go along.

    Thanks

    MartinM ? 2 Replies Last reply
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Martin Walker
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #1697

    @martin back 1.25 but i do like to average higher.

    Personally in my current trading i average 1.35

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
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  • D Offline
    D Offline
    Dan MacKinnon
    replied to Alastair Todd on last edited by
    #1698

    @alastair-todd This sounds very similar to mine. I've been changing my criteria for recording data but the longest streak is 205 games with 80.5% SR

    “Greed moves the goalposts” - Ryan Holiday

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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Alastair Todd
    wrote on last edited by
    #1699

    @Martin Keen to get involved in the collaboration, it's a great initiative but not sure how much I have to offer. I have a simple 1.5 goals strategy which has a strike rate of 81%, although over only 400 games so far, with average lay odds of 3.85. Having said that, since Boxing Day I have taken slightly higher lay odds to increase the strike rate and have been averaging lay odds of 4.5 with slightly lower stakes. Not sure what I can add but happy to be involved.

    D MartinM 2 Replies Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    wrote on last edited by
    #1700

    @martin-walker on over 1.5 do you have any min odds?

    M 1 Reply Last reply
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