Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Ive noticed with the South American matches the Lay Odds are quite juicy like 3.0 and under, that means less liability as I stick to a staking plan depending on the odds of the match. Also at the start of the day I decided to stick to 2 stakes to use for the day and that it really.
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My next LTD trade is a Colombian match Dep. Pasto v Dep Cali which kicks off at 23:10
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@gary-brown I trade from KO
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I am having success with O1.5 goals. Taking liability out in first half but also switching SH to a o.5 goal trade if 0-0. So only a 0-0 lose.
Problem is i have two filters. And my selections have to be on both filters to be selected.
One filter has a 5 game scope
The other filter is a 10 game scope
both slightly different. -
@dan-peacey
With LTD Dan the way you trade it usually makes a big difference.What is your strategy? Is it HT ltd or a LTD at KO strategy?
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Sorry for not contributing sooner guys, I tested positive for Covid on Monday and am self isolating currently. I have several filters for LTD which im testing. All filters are giving profits and a strike rate of 75%+. What I do is see which of my filters is the most profitable on a given day and then pick the matches on that filter. For me currently 2 filters are quite close together so I flip flop between them. After a very good month in January securing around 20% profit, I am now -2.5% down this month. More often than not some matches appear on more than 1 of my filters which is good.
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@mathew-gates said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@richard-pennick I get an idea and then use bfbotmanager. Set it up and use tiny stakes and just forget about it for ages, say a few weeks or so and then look at the results and tweak if neccessary
my goal is once we get a few fully tested to add them to the members filters in a set and forget separate drop down menu and then get some bots worked out!
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@richard-pennick I get an idea and then use bfbotmanager. Set it up and use tiny stakes and just forget about it for ages, say a few weeks or so and then look at the results and tweak if neccessary
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@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@alastair-todd that's a good margin, what profit would it be to £10 stake per lay?
I'm not sure I am able to give you a sensible answer on this Martin as I have been 'adjusting' the staking as I go along. Initially I started off staking to win 1 point but that became unpalatable as it meant losing about 3 points if the trade went bad. Since then I have been using a liability of no more than 1.2 points which brings in about 0.35 points profit on average per trade. I suppose I am loosely using a Maria style staking plan to limit the liability but I probably won't enter the trade if the result is going to be less than 0.3 points for the win as the risk/reward ratio starts to work against me. Sorry, this is probably not what you asked, but that's what I've got! Obviously, any advice would be gratefully received.
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@alastair-todd that's a good margin, what profit would it be to £10 stake per lay?
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@richard-pennick for this it is really easy to test as you go along, all you need is the selections and the prematch price
we are looking to add backtesting to the software in the next update and that will make it much easier to test. -
@martin-walker I like that as a cut off, there is one today at 1.18 but that's just too short for me even in testing
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@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@sean-fitzgerald nice one how many games?
104 games now since August. Profit +2.23 pts.
Profit line would like a lot better if I’d slept through December. Lost -2.32 pts in December. Sept was -0.13 pts but all other months have been steady.
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Hi guys, probably my first proper post. When you are testing strategies do you use a simulator?, if so what. Or do you buy some historical data or just use your own match records as you go along.
Thanks
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@martin back 1.25 but i do like to average higher.
Personally in my current trading i average 1.35
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@alastair-todd This sounds very similar to mine. I've been changing my criteria for recording data but the longest streak is 205 games with 80.5% SR
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@Martin Keen to get involved in the collaboration, it's a great initiative but not sure how much I have to offer. I have a simple 1.5 goals strategy which has a strike rate of 81%, although over only 400 games so far, with average lay odds of 3.85. Having said that, since Boxing Day I have taken slightly higher lay odds to increase the strike rate and have been averaging lay odds of 4.5 with slightly lower stakes. Not sure what I can add but happy to be involved.
