Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@ian-wylie This seems to be in line with some other data I've seen. Anything 85%+ on SHG seems about right, but anything less than 80% seems to struggle once you take into account commission. Interesting to see the difference if there's no FHG.
I've also seen Sweden around the 75% mark which makes you wonder if it's worth pursuing over the summer if Norway and Finland are so much higher?
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Hi all,
This is a filter which I have been running for quite a while, in fact it's been on the go for so long with various tweaks that I can't remember when / how it started. In all likelihood I probably got the idea from one of @Martin or @Ryan podcasts or videos. It is a really basic, simple filter as you will see (no great thought process was used in the building of this) and has been running with it's current settings since August 2021. Previous to that I had experimented with changing the scope between 5 & 10 games, the O2.5 percentage and the odds before settling on the current settings. I haven't restricted too many leagues (if any) and so far it's had a total of 413 games selected.
The filter settings are:
/home/ian/Downloads/Screenshot from 2022-03-21 11-48-42.pngThe results going back to last August are:
/home/ian/Downloads/Screenshot from 2022-03-21 12-02-49.pngThe O1.5 results have dipped recently with a really bad week in January followed by the weekend just past and is at 84% currently. I like to record a lot of data on my sheets in case something else stands out and in this case you can see that there is a bit of a difference in the SHG % when a goal has been scored in the first half (87.01%) compared to 81.90% if it's 0-0 at half time. Also, only 50% of games which are 0-0 at half time end up O1.5.
I was trading this as a set & forget Lay U1.5 goals but I would tend to take the loss at HT if it was 0-0 and then back a SHG to make a scratch trade. The reasoning being that 0-0 at HT gives a 50% chance of a wining trade and a 81.90% chance of a scratch trade with 1 SHG if that makes sense.
I was considering using it for LTD trades as until recently less than 20% of games ended up as a draw but that has increased as well recently to 21.55%.
I've also looked at the country's with over 20 selections on the filter just out of interest (Can't wait till Finland & Norway start again):
/home/ian/Downloads/Screenshot from 2022-03-21 12-15-36.pngAnyway I hope this is use to some and maybe someone will come up with a better idea for trading it. I've got a few more O1.5 filters on the go which are looking promising but just don't have enough selections yet to start trading them.
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Sorry guys and gals - I've kept up to date as much as possible, but can't see the ELO "rules"! For the Away value, was it simply just ELO away is greater than ELO home, but they're the Dog in Betfair?
And it's just backing the away team / laying the home team?
Cheers all!
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@tomasz-lunarzewski said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@richard-latimer said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@tomasz-lunarzewski do it manually. Look on oddsportal.com as I suggested to Matt
Yes mate that is what I do, but that filter probably needs a little improvement because it would be very handy in a long run if it shows everything right.
I guess. I like the average book price to go on though rather than Betfair prices. Think it gives a better overall idea.
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@richard-latimer said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@tomasz-lunarzewski do it manually. Look on oddsportal.com as I suggested to Matt
Yes mate that is what I do, but that filter probably needs a little improvement because it would be very handy in a long run if it shows everything right.
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@tomasz-lunarzewski do it manually. Look on oddsportal.com as I suggested to Matt
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When I try to apply the odds filter it cuts too many games, even them that actually have the odds I want, so I just do it manually on the go. Has anyone got the same issue with that filter?
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@matt-wood said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
@richard-latimer This is something I had been thinking of doing. I have probably asked you before bud, sorry, but where do you get your odds data for historical games from?
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@richard-latimer This is something I had been thinking of doing. I have probably asked you before bud, sorry, but where do you get your odds data for historical games from?
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@martin said in Project Set & Forget Football Strategies - Community Collaboration:
One month of testing update:
I wanted to have a look at the under 2.5 results from yesterday and I could see there were a huge amount of results. As I've been doing for ages now I thought I'd run these alongside the 1x2 odds to see what it showed:
From an initail 40 selections I've managed to narrow that down to only 15 with just 2 losses based purely on match odds.
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@matt-wood .. screen shot has Home matches, Away matches played >=5.
It was way down a thread someowhere and it definitely had 2 filters for Home and Away matches played >=5 but someone else had posted the screenshot of it i think. Anyway I had imported the proper version with Overall >=10
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@matt-wood Yes! Got it sussed now - it was the "restrict to going in play matches" that I had selected and I see that you haven't. I'm sure I saw it ticked in the thread somewhere but now I've unticked and everything tallies.Not sure why it rejected just a few random games but not worried now, ha! Thanks for your help!
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... screen shot has Home matches, Away matches played >=5.
I am not seeing this in the screen shot I posted? Am I missing something?
The 5th line of the filter is "Ov. Matches Played>=10"Scope is set to last 5 matches from the drop down menus
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@matt-wood Downloladed and imported exact filter, no changes. No odds limit on downloaded filter, it looks exactly like the one below in this thread, except it has different number matches played, download has Ov Matches played >=10, whereas the screen shot has Home matches, Away matches played >=5.
Should played matches be 5 or 10? That's the only difference. Maybe it's that?
Cheers, Gaz -
@gaz-hutchinson Ive just downloaded it and set scope to last 5 matches, today only and I get Avranches v Chambly on my list.
Both Grazer and FC Juniors are on the list too.
Should look like this:
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@gaz-hutchinson HHHmmmm, I'm not sure what is going on here Gaz. Maybe @Martin can advise.
I don't have the same testing set up as Martin does, so my sheets are different to the one that Martin shares.
Does the filter download you have include an odds limit? if so maybe that is the reason?