Set & Forget Football Strategies
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@duane-kellock thanks Duane. Yeah definitely the price you are getting in at is very important... its one thing a lot of these tioters never mention. The value... its probably the single most important thing..
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@chris-osborne ok thanks
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@john-malloy I think % depends on what the odds are at the time as to whether they would be profitable.
I've been looking at an LTD strategy but tracking goals and times to look at FHG, SHG, O1.5 and U3.5 (LTD has tanked but SHG running at 85%).
What I've done in excel is set up a little profit and loss table. A bit rudimentary but, for example, my SHG is 85%. Average odds for me at the begining of the SH for a goal is around 1.3. If I base it on a £10 bet (nice round number), I'm in profit. If I drop that to 76%, I'd be in a loss.
Tracked some odds around the 60min mark for a goal and the average was 1.4. The success rate dropped to 76% but, I'd be in profit.As I say, very simplistic but it shows the difference the odds can make as to whether a % is profitable or not.
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Is there a lack of football on this week? Not had anything to trade on over 1.5 backs, under 1.5 lays or under 3.5 backs in the last few days. Normally at least one match to trade
Nothing going on at all alot of cup games as James said but also the natural disaster in Turkey has lead to games beong cancelled
Ghampions League etc restart next week probably going tp be a similar state of for a few weeks unless lower leagues have a round of fixtures midweek
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@dave-tancock lots of cup games on this week on the continent
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Is there a lack of football on this week? Not had anything to trade on over 1.5 backs, under 1.5 lays or under 3.5 backs in the last few days. Normally at least one match to trade
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@martin yes that's very true Martin. Thanks I'll keep plugging away with it...I was also thinking the software has data about cards in games I'm not sure if anyone is utilising that... just trying to think outside the box a little bit... also I had an idea about laying teams that have just played a big European match,.. guess that would have to be done outside of the software.. I was thinking it has to be a knockout round match. And some group games are a breeze for certain teams.... I was thinking is it worth noting the days rest between a euro game and the next league game, and or,, distance travelled.. away in Turkey for example would be more taxing than a match away In Holland for example.. anyway food for thought..️
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And also to compliment my earlier post. I've been working on an over2.5 set and forget.... although it's early days its bobbing along at a 55% ish strike rate.. quite poor, but there are positives... oh yes there are... its rocking a 86% strike rate at over 1.5 somehow, although the sa.pke size at this moment is a mere 28 matches.. I kmow the guys like a few hundred, so I'm certainly not bragging,, anyway I've been noting goal times amountnof goals too obviously and I noticed it's got around 76%, strike rate for second half goals and around 84% for first half goals.. (may have just solved my fhg thingy) I'm assuming 84%, is enough to make money,,,, is 76%, quite good enough? Also I noticed from the 28 games only 4 were draws any thoughts welcome.... thanks
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Bonjour Amigos. The set and forgets seemed to have quite a good weekend diditn they.. I've been playing around with the filters and trying to create a 1st half goals S and F.... trying to be ambitious amd get something I created on the email list lol... lofty ambitions...anyhoo it's been performing OK... slightly in profit to be amazing 10pence testing stakes... Well my question was what would you guys put into the software for avoiding a ht 0-0 8ve got home HT Less 30% away HT less than 30% Ov goals scored per match ave+ov goals scored per match H1 ave>1 should that final one be scrapped or adjusted? And what else could be useful.? Answers on a postcard,,, this is BT (community) So any ideas are welcome..... danke caballeros
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@dave-tancock This is a football thread what are you after?
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@chris-osborne isnt that just for football though?
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@dave-tancock Soccerstats.com would be the first place I'd look
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Not set and forget but I’m working on a couple good strategies and trying to find a form guide ie last 5-10 finishes but don’t know any free websites. Closest I can find is how many top 10s this season. Any ideas would be appreciated.
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@dave-tancock first step contact customer services
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Anyone ever place a trade, get the notifications on Betfair but it’s on your account anywhere?? If so how did you sort.
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@andy-donnelly any revision you make keep me updated!
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Out of interest, how much tinkering has been done with the u3.5 strategy in the past? Noticed a trend this month that anything over 1.4 did pretty poorly. I’ve only been tracking one month so wonder if anyone has a larger data set to look at this.
Similarly if you increase the percentage of u3.5 goals in past games on the filter to 85 rather than 80 it’s seems to do better. But as I said very little data I’m working with.