Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Probably a daft question but how do you choose between laying under 1.5 goals and backing over 1.5 goals. It’s the same outcome but I am unsure how you work out which has more value?
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The 1.5 strategy started as a shg filter. It can be tweaked to reach 87-90% shg chance
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@nick-allan yeh, that could be the next thing I look at with this strategy. I wanted to keep it easy and just stake at half time then leave it, but I'm seeing there could be some value in doing a split stake strategy with this. Quick glance shows around 50% with a goal after 79mins. I can split my data up more to see where the value is but I need to tweak my strategy as well before I go putting more work into this part.
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@dave-tancock true but you can still bet them by leaving a kept in play bet at the required odds, had 2 where the odds were lower than 1.25 it only takes a couple of mins to be matched in-play.
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@jon-kinnear nice although only 5 met the odds criteria when I looked this morning.
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Martin over 1.5 goal backs 8 winners out of 8 for today, awesome strategy
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@dave-tancock From what I understand there is going to be a backtesting addition to the software like you have for the horse racing software where you can create a strategy and then back test it, @Martin has there been any updates in regards to this?
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@duane-kellock just an idea but have you thought about a spilt stake with SHG? i currently do this - so i trade £10 stakes so £10 is 1 pt
I stake as follows:
£4 at 1.3-1.4,
£4 at 2.0,
£1 at 3.0
£1 at 5.0if you get a goal in say 90 - min you could be looking at around an 11 quid profit or 1.1 pts. The difficulties lies in looking at an effective SR, obviously if you are only looking at odds of 1.3 its easier to calculate and to be honest there are normally early goals so you only end up getting one of the stakes matched.
Im getting close to being consistently profitable on this strategy, it still needs more tweaking but I’m start to get excited about it. It will probably have a bad month now I’ve said that -
If someone wants to make an amendment to a set and forget, is there an option to back test or would it be try it compared to the base filter and see if it’s better moving forwards?
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@john-malloy also only on min stakes. Won’t consider increase my stakes until I get consecutive profitable months.
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Hi Guys I was wondering to what level guys I the group are betting/trading? I'm not trying to be intrusive and ask how much people are making, but was more interested to see what is realisticly achievable.... I'm on min stakes as I'm a new member.. but was wondering if anyone is staking bigger for example
- £5<
- £5-£20
- £20-£50
4 £50-£100 - £100-£250
- £250 +
Also to what lever or how much would you need to make to be on the supercharge.?
Don't want to pry, just would like to know what's achievable..
Thanks guys
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@duane-kellock thanks Duane. Yeah definitely the price you are getting in at is very important... its one thing a lot of these tioters never mention. The value... its probably the single most important thing..
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@chris-osborne ok thanks
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@john-malloy I think % depends on what the odds are at the time as to whether they would be profitable.
I've been looking at an LTD strategy but tracking goals and times to look at FHG, SHG, O1.5 and U3.5 (LTD has tanked but SHG running at 85%).
What I've done in excel is set up a little profit and loss table. A bit rudimentary but, for example, my SHG is 85%. Average odds for me at the begining of the SH for a goal is around 1.3. If I base it on a £10 bet (nice round number), I'm in profit. If I drop that to 76%, I'd be in a loss.
Tracked some odds around the 60min mark for a goal and the average was 1.4. The success rate dropped to 76% but, I'd be in profit.As I say, very simplistic but it shows the difference the odds can make as to whether a % is profitable or not.
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@dave-tancock said in Set & Forget Football Strategies:
Is there a lack of football on this week? Not had anything to trade on over 1.5 backs, under 1.5 lays or under 3.5 backs in the last few days. Normally at least one match to trade
Nothing going on at all alot of cup games as James said but also the natural disaster in Turkey has lead to games beong cancelled
Ghampions League etc restart next week probably going tp be a similar state of for a few weeks unless lower leagues have a round of fixtures midweek
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@dave-tancock lots of cup games on this week on the continent
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Is there a lack of football on this week? Not had anything to trade on over 1.5 backs, under 1.5 lays or under 3.5 backs in the last few days. Normally at least one match to trade
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@martin yes that's very true Martin. Thanks I'll keep plugging away with it...I was also thinking the software has data about cards in games I'm not sure if anyone is utilising that... just trying to think outside the box a little bit... also I had an idea about laying teams that have just played a big European match,.. guess that would have to be done outside of the software.. I was thinking it has to be a knockout round match. And some group games are a breeze for certain teams.... I was thinking is it worth noting the days rest between a euro game and the next league game, and or,, distance travelled.. away in Turkey for example would be more taxing than a match away In Holland for example.. anyway food for thought..
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