Set & Forget Football Strategies
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Need to give thanks to @Martin for posting the YouTube video about flipping strategies. Since joining btc last July I’ve paper traded thousands of games with many different strategies.
Here is a LTD filter set and forget I’ve paper traded since January with with 650 games… I guess its time to flip it and go live. I’d be willing to share if anyone is interested
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@Matthew just wondered what is the reasoning behind discarding china from the strat? thanks andy
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@dave-tancock @Martin ....is this under the New Lay Away or ELO Away Team Lays?
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@Matthew not restricted anything yet with this strategy, barring away odds over 2.00. But weekend was good with approx 20 points up for me as well
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Lay the away team this weekend using odds between 2.3 and 5.8 every league included apart from china
14 points up off 33 selections -
@Steven-Fletcher mad how many more selections pop up during the day, I know I missed a few days as I was ill for part of the month, I'm guessing the odds not being formed on some of the markets mean the selections don't show as they will not have hit the target price range
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@Martin having reviewed my data this month i think one thing with these strategies that people may not take into consideration when looking at set and forget is timing. As football odds don't move as much as horse racing there doesn't seem much consideration into at what point people enter the trade.
I think in the past @Martin has said in videos that he tends to place these in the morning. Due to my style of trading i rarely have time in the mornings so instead like to set things up the night before and then use automation. As a result most of my trades are set to enter 10 minutes before kick off via a bot. The other change I've made as a result of how I trade these strategies is that I have removed the odds range from the BTC software and use the odds criteria in the bot to ensure that the potential selections fit the odds ranges. This is because often the markets haven't formed the night before and I would typically find I missed many of the selections that made it into the main google doc. I believe this is because the software goes on LTP so if there hasn't been trading they wont fall into the right odds range (not much of a surprise with markets sometimes 12-24 hours from kick off). This month my results for the over 3.5 lay were very different from Martin's.
The yellow entries on the right are the selections that mirror the test doc so you can see there are a number which didn't appear on the main doc. The leagues though (with the exception of an Austria game) are leagues not in the first few or last few matches and the odds are within the right range. One is up and one is down for the month
At the moment I'm only forward testing these but I think this illustrates what has been said countless times on the podcasts etc that this isn't a tipping service and you have to understand the strategies. I'm not overly concerned by my results as i feel that over time i will be getting value but I thought it was worth posting this. It's quite a difference and its something people may not have considered before
It definitely supports what @Ryan is always saying about how no one can tell you what is the best strategy for you to trade. You have to try it and understand what works for you with how you want to do it. If the trend continues for a few months I may decide that this strategy isn't one that works well the night before and doesn't work for me at the moment.
edited as my original screen shot didnt have the odds for my testing
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@Martin Do you mean the ELO strategy that's in the email? That's lost 4 out of the last 5, I think (though I've only monitored it for the past week). Good to know it's more reliable than that if so! Or is there another one that's not sent out?
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Has anyone tried testing the lay over 3.5 goals market, by adding a cash out in play. For example backing under 3.5 goals at odds of 2 then adding a lay bet in play at say odds of 5.
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@dave-tancock aces!